Model Update - 2/11/24

[Aike]

I’m going to call this a glass half full post.

What my modeling is telling me is that somewhere just below the surface hides the bones of a decent basketball team.

A team that, despite many missteps and deficiencies, is still on the borderline of being able to compete for a title.

Will we ever play the right lineups?

We will ever string together multiple stops?

We will ever learn to secure defensive rebounds?

I wish I had the answer to these questions. Check all three boxes and I think we can go on a long run. Miss all three and we could be sitting home in March. The ultimate high ceiling/low floor team, with a circus clown steering the ship.

Anyway, here’s how things stand with about a month to go:

1. Arizona 3.00
2. Connecticut 2.79
3. Houston 2.72
4. Iowa St 2.546
5. Auburn 2.545
6. Tennessee 2.52
7. Kansas 2.48
8. Purdue 2.44
9. Alabama 2.39
10. Marquette 2.20
11. BYU 2.07
12. Michigan St 1.91
13. Virginia 1.84
14. Kentucky 1.71
15. UNC 1.61
16. Colorado 1.56
17. TCU 1.55
18. Duke 1.51
19. Texas 1.46
20. Mississippi St 1.39
21. Iowa 1.36
22. FAU 1.33
23. Baylor 1.30
24. Gonzaga 1.28
25. St Mary’s 1.26

Rest of SEC
31. Mississippi
36. Florida
64. LSU
69. South Carolina
72. ATM
90. Missouri
101. Georgia
103. Arkansas
198. Vandy

 

[Jamal Mercer]

Sorry Aike, these rankings have lost me with Kentucky still being in the top 20.

Just doesn’t compute.

 

[Aike]

Sorry Aike, these rankings have lost me with Kentucky still being in the top 20.

Just doesn’t compute.

It does, in fact, compute. That’s all it does. It’s a math problem.

We are currently 290 out of 362 teams in the Kenpom “luck” category. That basically means we blow a lot of close games.

We are a handful of possessions away from being something like 19-4. If that were the case, people would be saying 14th is too low.

Truth is, play a lot of tight games and they usually go 50-50. We have been historically bad at even getting off a decent shot in those situations. The odds say these things even out.

 

[TheDude73]

It does, in fact, compute. That’s all it does. It’s a math problem.

We are currently 290 out of 362 teams in the Kenpom “luck” category. That basically means we blow a lot of close games.

We are a handful of possessions away from being something like 19-4. If that were the case, people would be saying 14th is too low.

Truth is, play a lot of tight games and they usually go 50-50. We have been historically bad at even getting off a decent shot in those situations. The odds say these things even out.

290th in (poor) coaching to win close games is more like it. It’s not unlucky, it’s bad close-game coaching and execution.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

This. We are a few possessions from even being 20-3. We’ve lost at least 4 very close games. Wish we had a good crunch time coach.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

290th in (poor) coaching to win close games is more like it. It’s not unlucky, it’s bad close-game coaching and execution.

Bingo!

 

[Aike]

290th in (poor) coaching to win close games is more like it. It’s not unlucky, it’s bad close-game coaching and execution.

Of course. We’ve watched it and we see the underlying cause this year. Generally speaking, though, coin flip games go 50-50.

That’s why you want to blow the doors off teams and avoid the possibility of “luck” beating you.

And even as bad as we’ve been in close games, at some point Rob or Reed just rises up and makes a shot.

 

[Jamal Mercer]

It does, in fact, compute. That’s all it does. It’s a math problem.

We are currently 290 out of 362 teams in the Kenpom “luck” category. That basically means we blow a lot of close games.

We are a handful of possessions away from being something like 19-4. If that were the case, people would be saying 14th is too low.

Truth is, play a lot of tight games and they usually go 50-50. We have been historically bad at even getting off a decent shot in those situations. The odds say these things even out.

I use the word “compute“ as a little joke. It wasn’t funny.

I’ve always appreciated you doing this, but lately I can’t even open your updates without getting pissed off lol.

I’ve just always liked the eye test better than any computer system. One of the worst defenses I’ve ever seen combined with one of the worst in game coaches we’ve ever seen. Just not a great combo to get any wins in a tournament.

 

[Aike]

I use the word “compute“ as a little joke. It wasn’t funny.

I’ve always appreciated you doing this, but lately I can’t even open your updates without getting pissed off lol.

I’ve just always liked the eye test better than any computer system. One of the worst defenses I’ve ever seen combined with one of the worst in game coaches we’ve ever seen. Just not a great combo to get any wins in a tournament.

Cal feels historically bad at end game situations, but even this year we executed down the stretch at Florida and Arkansas, finished off St Joe’s in OT (never should have been that close), and closed out UNC (they choked a bit).

Just like Aaron Harrison hitting shot after shot in ‘14 was a bit of a fluke, the way we’ve finished some of these games this year has been flukish as well.

I mean, we are still top 5 in the country in assist/turnover ratio. Logic would dictate that we would be able to run something decent to get a good shot in the last 30 seconds. Even if we just ran our normal stuff and nothing special.

 

[wcc31]

I’m going to call this a glass half full post.

What my modeling is telling me is that somewhere just below the surface hides the bones of a decent basketball team.

A team that, despite many missteps and deficiencies, is still on the borderline of being able to compete for a title.

Will we ever play the right lineups?

We will ever string together multiple stops?

We will ever learn to secure defensive rebounds?

I wish I had the answer to these questions. Check all three boxes and I think we can go on a long run. Miss all three and we could be sitting home in March. The ultimate high ceiling/low floor team, with a circus clown steering the ship.

Anyway, here’s how things stand with about a month to go:

1. Arizona 3.00
2. Connecticut 2.79
3. Houston 2.72
4. Iowa St 2.546
5. Auburn 2.545
6. Tennessee 2.52
7. Kansas 2.48
8. Purdue 2.44
9. Alabama 2.39
10. Marquette 2.20
11. BYU 2.07
12. Michigan St 1.91
13. Virginia 1.84
14. Kentucky 1.71
15. UNC 1.61
16. Colorado 1.56
17. TCU 1.55
18. Duke 1.51
19. Texas 1.46
20. Mississippi St 1.39
21. Iowa 1.36
22. FAU 1.33
23. Baylor 1.30
24. Gonzaga 1.28
25. St Mary’s 1.26

Rest of SEC
31. Mississippi
36. Florida
64. LSU
69. South Carolina
72. ATM
90. Missouri
101. Georgia
103. Arkansas
198. Vandy

Thanks for continuing to pass this along. Really interesting.

 

[Aike]

Thanks for continuing to pass this along. Really interesting.

No problem.

 

[crawfords corner]

The one saving grace for this team, well it's actually 2, is that 1) there are still 39 days left before the tournament and 2) if the Cats can finally be healthy the last 37 days starting with the Ole Miss game Cal can actually narrow down a consistent rotation that has time to gel more defensively.


That's if we give allowance for all the missing games having been a major driving force for why Kentucky hasn't gotten better defensively. Not using youth as an excuse because they should still be better, but if you look at most of the best defensive teams they've been mostly together for at least a couple seasons. Even a team like Houston generally keeps good defenders on the team to mesh with their new players. That's why they can seemlessly do it.

The one thing that worries me though is that for these guys to get better defensively it seems that they need to be more physically capable and that won't happen in just 39 days from today. Basically, this is more the issue than the above.



Thanks for keeping up with your model Aike. I think it makes for interesting conversation.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

Saying we are UNLUCKY is a nice way of saying Cal can’t coach in a close game scenario.

 

[Ron Mehico]

We are one of, if not the most, talented teams in college bball. Of course we will have a punchers chance to make noise, but that fact we’re even in this position is very depressing.

 

[Aike]

Saying we are UNLUCKY is a nice way of saying Cal can’t coach in a close game scenario.

Pretty much.

 

[Aike]

We are one if, if not the most, talented team ever n college bball. Of course we will have a punchers chance to make noise, but that fact we’re even in this position is very depressing.

It’s indefensible. And it’s every year.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

The one saving grace for this team, well it's actually 2, is that 1) there are still 39 days left before the tournament and 2) if the Cats can finally be healthy the last 37 days starting with the Ole Miss game Cal can actually narrow down a consistent rotation that has time to gel more defensively.


That's if we give allowance for all the missing games having been a major driving force for why Kentucky hasn't gotten better defensively. Not using youth as an excuse because they should still be better, but if you look at most of the best defensive teams they've been mostly together for at least a couple seasons. Even a team like Houston generally keeps good defenders on the team to mesh with their new players. That's why they can seemlessly do it.

The one thing that worries me though is that for these guys to get better defensively it seems that they need to be more physically capable and that won't happen in just 39 days from today. Basically, this is more the issue than the above.



Thanks for keeping up with your model Aike. I think it makes for interesting conversation.

Agreed. We’ve had at least one player missing in every game this season. It’s hard to get any cohesiveness with that being the case. Especially with so many new players and young players. Recipe for disaster.

 

[Ron Mehico]

It’s indefensible. And it’s every year.

Not to sound like a grouch but hearing about Booker scoring 70 in 2016, seeing Herro light it up, I’m sure seeing Dillingham light it up next year, only serves to make me more and more annoyed and disappointed with Cal. Just an absolute waste of so much talent.

 

[BBUK]

I’m going to call this a glass half full post.

What my modeling is telling me is that somewhere just below the surface hides the bones of a decent basketball team.

A team that, despite many missteps and deficiencies, is still on the borderline of being able to compete for a title.

Will we ever play the right lineups?

We will ever string together multiple stops?

We will ever learn to secure defensive rebounds?

I wish I had the answer to these questions. Check all three boxes and I think we can go on a long run. Miss all three and we could be sitting home in March. The ultimate high ceiling/low floor team, with a circus clown steering the ship.

Anyway, here’s how things stand with about a month to go:

1. Arizona 3.00
2. Connecticut 2.79
3. Houston 2.72
4. Iowa St 2.546
5. Auburn 2.545
6. Tennessee 2.52
7. Kansas 2.48
8. Purdue 2.44
9. Alabama 2.39
10. Marquette 2.20
11. BYU 2.07
12. Michigan St 1.91
13. Virginia 1.84
14. Kentucky 1.71
15. UNC 1.61
16. Colorado 1.56
17. TCU 1.55
18. Duke 1.51
19. Texas 1.46
20. Mississippi St 1.39
21. Iowa 1.36
22. FAU 1.33
23. Baylor 1.30
24. Gonzaga 1.28
25. St Mary’s 1.26

Rest of SEC
31. Mississippi
36. Florida
64. LSU
69. South Carolina
72. ATM
90. Missouri
101. Georgia
103. Arkansas
198. Vandy

Brother Aike,

No offense but Cal P_SSED on your model. (He did.)(No way to model a present day Cal-coached team...)

 

[the nail at the foul line]

This. We are a few possessions from even being 20-3. We’ve lost at least 4 very close games. Wish we had a good crunch time coach.

I miss HSquared saying we are 5 bounces and a good whistle from being 22-1.

I have never seen a team so bad at getting a stop. Yet two posters in the game thread insist Reed gives up every point.

 

[$Z71$]

I’m going to call this a glass half full post.

What my modeling is telling me is that somewhere just below the surface hides the bones of a decent basketball team.

A team that, despite many missteps and deficiencies, is still on the borderline of being able to compete for a title.

Will we ever play the right lineups?

We will ever string together multiple stops?

We will ever learn to secure defensive rebounds?

I wish I had the answer to these questions. Check all three boxes and I think we can go on a long run. Miss all three and we could be sitting home in March. The ultimate high ceiling/low floor team, with a circus clown steering the ship.

Anyway, here’s how things stand with about a month to go:

1. Arizona 3.00
2. Connecticut 2.79
3. Houston 2.72
4. Iowa St 2.546
5. Auburn 2.545
6. Tennessee 2.52
7. Kansas 2.48
8. Purdue 2.44
9. Alabama 2.39
10. Marquette 2.20
11. BYU 2.07
12. Michigan St 1.91
13. Virginia 1.84
14. Kentucky 1.71
15. UNC 1.61
16. Colorado 1.56
17. TCU 1.55
18. Duke 1.51
19. Texas 1.46
20. Mississippi St 1.39
21. Iowa 1.36
22. FAU 1.33
23. Baylor 1.30
24. Gonzaga 1.28
25. St Mary’s 1.26

Rest of SEC
31. Mississippi
36. Florida
64. LSU
69. South Carolina
72. ATM
90. Missouri
101. Georgia
103. Arkansas
198. Vandy

This is how I see it as well. There aren't 20 teams better than us regardless of results. Even with results not 20 teams have a better resume either even as poor as ours is currently.

It's a bitter pill to swallow that we aren't a top team but we are only a few adjustments away from being that. Sad thing is the runway is coming to an end to make those adjustments and I'm not sure it's possible. I could definitely see this team making a run to the final four, but unfortunately I don't see us ever stringing all 6 wins together to win it all without substantial luck not only in game but in the bracket and matchups. It's more likely another early flame out in S16 or R32.

We are a few bounces away from being anywhere from 18-5 to 21-2 just so happens we failed to execute in all those situations and instead are 16-7 and can't afford to not execute moving forward. I'm definitely not confident in this team but I also realize outside the top 3-4 teams I wouldn't be confident in any of the remaining teams either. With guards like we have and the ability to score anything is possible.

 

[Aike]

Not to sound like a grouch but hearing about Booker scoring 70 in 2016, seeing Herro light it up, I’m sure seeing Dillingham light it up next year, only serves to make me more and more annoyed and disappointed with Cal. Just an absolute waste of so much talent.

Cal could get away with it more back when he was making regular runs to the Final Four. Maybe his way really was better?

But the man lost the high ground long ago.

 

[TheDude73]

Of course. We’ve watched it and we see the underlying cause this year. Generally speaking, though, coin flip games go 50-50.

That’s why you want to blow the doors off teams and avoid the possibility of “luck” beating you.

And even as bad as we’ve been in close games, at some point Rob or Reed just rises up and makes a shot.

Law of averages. We just don't have enough games in the season to do that if we're always on the wrong side of 50/50.

 

[Aike]

Law of averages. We just don't have enough games in the season to do that if we're always on the wrong side of 50/50.

Run wide open, get more stops, cut down on 50-50 games.

I would argue that generating more steals is our best bet with this personnel.

We are getting scored on virtually every possession anyway, so why not trap more and force the issue?

Think if we flipped just one possession per game from an opponent score into a layup for us, keeping all else equal. That’s a 4 point swing, and maybe the difference between a nightmare season and a pretty good one.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Run wide open, get more stops, cut down on 50-50 games.

I would argue that generating more steals is our best bet with this personnel.

We are getting scored on virtually every possession anyway, so why not trap more and force the issue?

Think if we flipped just one possession per game from an opponent score into a layup for us, keeping all else equal. That’s a 4 point swing, and maybe the difference between a nightmare season and a pretty good one.

Every damn possession we are scored on. It’s unbelievable to watch. I’ve never seen a UK team this bad defensively. It’s infuriating.

 

[Lovebaskelball]

Play at a frenetic pace, jump every passing lane and never slow down the pace. Can't play solid D to begin with so make it a blur the whole game.

 

[UKAlum84]

Bama and South Carolina, are tied for first, arent they?


I don't understand this discrepancy in how they rank in the model.

 

[HagginHall1999]

This. We are a few possessions from even being 20-3. We’ve lost at least 4 very close games. Wish we had a good crunch time coach.

That is what is so damn frustrating man.

We should be a top 5 team competing for a 1 seed right now and instead we are fighting to stay in the tournament.

 

[HagginHall1999]

Our team should play a chaos style. I don't understand why we wouldn't just go all out full court at this point. Empty the bench including Joey Hart. We have 12 scholarship players when healthy and length/speed to create blocks/steals.

Use it!

 

[Aike]

Bama and South Carolina, are tied for first, arent they?


I don't understand this discrepancy in how they rank in the model.

South Carolina is dragged down by poor SOS and generally mediocre metrics across the board.

They obviously have delivered big wins in some key moments.

 

[WildcatfaninOhio]

Another model update. Candice Swanepoel is still hot.