Matt Jones tweet

[JonathanW]

Well a copy of a tweet from DrsftKings. That 25% of the $ and 18% of the best are on UK winning the NCAA-T, at +2200 odds.

IMO that is really bad news for BBN. There is no way Vegas (via Refs) will allow us to win it!!!! Assuming DraftKings bets are representative of all other sports betting.

It’s probably too late, but BBN stop betting on our Cats to win it, in fact go get on other teams.

 

[ThroughBlue]

Im gonna start putting five on Duke and North Carolina to start every season

 

[UKWildcats1987]

UK fans betting on this team to win it all with Cal as coach are crazy. You people are crazy.

 

[ck-2]

The “Draft King” is this teams problem, not a gambling site.

 

[$Z71$]

UK fans betting on this team to win it all with Cal as coach are crazy. You people are crazy.

Most of that money isn't from UK fans. It's from sports bettors and casual sports bettors. Just means that John Q public thinks those odds are low and UK has a better chance than that, so they bet it.

 

[YardCat]

If we took the money people wasted on betting on UK to win it all we could be close to buying out Cal.

 

[March 22]

The “Draft King” is this teams problem, not a gambling site.

 

[truebluewildcat]

I think it means Vegas has done their homework.

They have professionals researching everything compiling data. Economists, mathematicians, statisticians, medical, meteorological (even though that applies more to outside sports), former coaches, players, most likely body language experts, psychologists, and even social media wizards scrolling to see whose girlfriend just broke up with them.

 

[Cold Stout Beer]

 

[dynastydreamuk]

I agree with OP and believe it's why the 2015 Wisconsin game Refs were so obviously crooked trying to fix that for us to lose. Had 2015 won it all, the story was that Vegas would lose astronomical amounts of money.

Now I don't think it's near a fraction as bad this year but I don't think you want to be a big favorite as far as where most the public is puting their money.

 

[CELTICAT]

I put $5 on the cats to win it all when they were +1500 back a couple months ago.

 

[Smashcat]

Here’s the tweet.

 

[ukcatz12]

Well a copy of a tweet from DrsftKings. That 25% of the $ and 18% of the best are on UK winning the NCAA-T, at +2200 odds.

IMO that is really bad news for BBN. There is no way Vegas (via Refs) will allow us to win it!!!!

That's not how Vegas works. People always assume they know which result helps or hurts Vegas. We opened the season around +1400, which were the fourth shortest odds. That 25%/18% figure is not representative of the amount of money or bets placed on UK at +2200, it's just the number that accounts for every bet so far this season.

Odds are constantly adjusted throughout the season to make certain bets look more or less attractive to the general public. People always say things like "oh of course Vegas wouldn't allow them to cover" if there's a late foul that puts a losing team at the line, but a team covering or not covering is meaningless unless you know which result loses Vegas money. And if you're not a sharp with access to that types of information you don't.

Sports books aren't also going to publicly release information about betting percentages that puts them at a disadvantage.

 

[JonathanW]

That's not how Vegas works. People always assume they know which result helps or hurts Vegas. We opened the season around +1400, which were the fourth shortest odds. That 25%/18% figure is not representative of the amount of money or bets placed on UK at +2200, it's just the number that accounts for every bet so far this season.

Odds are constantly adjusted throughout the season to make certain bets look more or less attractive to the general public. People always say things like "oh of course Vegas wouldn't allow them to cover" if there's a late foul that puts a losing team at the line, but a team covering or not covering is meaningless unless you know which result loses Vegas money. And if you're not a sharp with access to that types of information you don't.

Sports books aren't also going to publicly release information about betting percentages that puts them at a disadvantage.

I knew that the +2200 was the current line, and the 25%/18% were across the whole season and other lines. That wasn't the point, so I didn't go into that level of detail.

The point is, Vegas could lose a boatload of $ if we win (assuming those #'s are close to accurate) and thus I have a big concern that they won't allow us to win it (if we did try to put a run together).

 

[JonathanW]

I think it means Vegas has done their homework.

They have professionals researching everything compiling data. Economists, mathematicians, statisticians, medical, meteorological (even though that applies more to outside sports), former coaches, players, most likely body language experts, psychologists, and even social media wizards scrolling to see whose girlfriend just broke up with them.

I am a Statistician and Mathematician, who also is extremely interested in Kentucky and college basketball.

 

[GoBIG BLUE]

That's not how Vegas works. People always assume they know which result helps or hurts Vegas. We opened the season around +1400, which were the fourth shortest odds. That 25%/18% figure is not representative of the amount of money or bets placed on UK at +2200, it's just the number that accounts for every bet so far this season.

Odds are constantly adjusted throughout the season to make certain bets look more or less attractive to the general public. People always say things like "oh of course Vegas wouldn't allow them to cover" if there's a late foul that puts a losing team at the line, but a team covering or not covering is meaningless unless you know which result loses Vegas money. And if you're not a sharp with access to that types of information you don't.

Sports books aren't also going to publicly release information about betting percentages that puts them at a disadvantage.

At the beginning of every bet on DK after clicking on the individual game it showd more often than not, the percentage of bets placed on each team. Who knows how accurate. All major teams usually show 90+% of the bets

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I mean, that's a pretty good value. $100 to win $2,200 on a team that has more talent than anyone and looks like they could start peaking. If Kentucky wins tonight, they are looking at an SEC Bye and will push for a 3-seed. Those odds could move up pretty quick.

Kentucky really doesn't have to do a whole lot from here, to prove to be a top5 team. Just defend better, move away from DJ.. The rebounding and post presence might never get fixed this year, but you can win without that.

And it also tells me people are seeing the same thing for moving their money to UK. It doesn't mean people ASSUME UK will win, just that it's a pretty damn good risk/reward bet.

 

[yoshukai]

I agree with OP and believe it's why the 2015 Wisconsin game Refs were so obviously crooked trying to fix that for us to lose. Had 2015 won it all, the story was that Vegas would lose astronomical amounts of money.

Now I don't think it's near a fraction as bad this year but I don't think you want to be a big favorite as far as where most the public is puting their money.

The refs were horrible. But they didn’t cause us to get 3 shot clock violations at the end of the game . That was Calipari taking the air out of the ball .

 

[truebluewildcat]

I am a Statistician and Mathematician, who also is extremely interested in Kentucky and college basketball.

Good then you can crunch some numbers and not look at things through fan eyes.

My main point, though I didn't explicitly state it, Vegas doesn't care. They are going to win regardless.

They're not going to prevent UK from winning any more than they're going to prevent the other 63 teams who won't win from winning.

Their product is gambling, and a tainted product is bad for business. Vegas doesn't want funny business via "refs" any more than GM wants a bad batch of batteries that blow up or Tyson Foods wants a bad batch of nuggets.

Vegas closely monitors for sour product, will know/spot it before Joe forum fan, and alert the authorities.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

I’d say that DK actually putting that out themselves is proof they aren’t worried.

 

[ukjenning44]

I lost my mind and bet UK to win the SEC after we beat UNC.
That’s not working out very well. lol

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

I bet Houston earlier In the year and this is the year they have to do. There has never been another wide open chance for Houston.

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

Who in the world trusts Cal and this team to win 6 straight games?

 

[yoshukai]

Who in the world trusts Cal and this team to win 6 straight games?

I would trust this team , the players. If they had better leadership and coaching.

 

[mebeblue2]

i got 50.00 on UK reaching the FF @ +600

i got 50.00 on UK winning the championship @ +2000 (bet early)

 

[Emarc]

Vegas doesnt care who wins. They just want bettors.

 

[Jamal Mercer]

Most of that money isn't from UK fans. It's from sports bettors and casual sports bettors. Just means that John Q public thinks those odds are low and UK has a better chance than that, so they bet it.

You got the casual bettors part correct. Just people throwing money on a name.

 

[Born and raised Big Blue]

Fanduel has us +3000. Get it there.

 

[UkMccurdy]

The “Draft King” is this teams problem, not a gambling site.

Amen

 

[CatFanInIlliniLand]

The “Draft King” is this teams problem, not a gambling site.

5 Stars. Your quote, not Skal, BJ Boston & a few others.