Bullshit. If the applicant both meets the 30 percent requirement AND can prove what caused him to miss the rest of the season was a legit season-ending injury, the NCAA generally grants the medical waiver as a routine matter of course. Indeed, I'm hard-pressed to think of anyone who meets the criteria who's been denied, can you?
Now it is true that most assume he'll choose not to apply for it and will be gone regardless. But for you tell his chances of getting one are zero is utter nonsense. He likely could get another year if he really wanted one. Quit pretending like you know more than you actually do.
The 0 percent is because I don't think he will apply for it. Not that he has a 0% chance of getting it if he applies. There was a division II or III athlete 10-15 years ago that had played almost exactly 30% of his team's games (was in that 29-30% area) but was denied the medical redshirt. My point, which obviously wasn't well composed, is that it is almost guaranteed that Poythress will not be back next year. Not that there wasn't a possibility that he would be back. A lot of things are possible but that doesn't mean they are likely. Since someone stated post-season games count in the percentage of games, I think that Poythress would probably get the medical redshirt if he applied.