Duke has now beaten us for 17 out of the last 20 head-to-heads for top 10 RSCI guys. That's an 85% success rate on their end, and a 15% success rate on our end.
In 2017, Calipari started taking open shots at Duke's recruiting pitch. By the spring of 2018, he was openly mocking them and ended up calling them out three or four times publicly in a three year period.
Despite all of Calipari's deflection and excuse making, it's more than "Nike helps them", although that's part of it (and a huge part). Duke is outselling their program against Kentucky.
This stuff started way back in 2009 when we were going after Kyrie. Calipari was at his absolute zenith, and he had Rod Strickland on the staff, who is Kyrie's freaking literal godfather. He also had Wall coming in, and had just sent Evans and Rose to the NBA as #4 and #1 picks, respectively (both won rookie of the year in their NBA debut seasons).
So here was Cal, recruiting Kyrie, and offering Nike support, the keys to the Kentucky point guard kingdom, and a chance to play on the largest stage in the country (the Kentucky brand was better than the Duke brand at that moment, particularly when Kyrie committed to Duke while Wall and Cousins were bringing waves of newfound hype to Lexington and Duke was the under-the-radar, eventual national champion that season).
So why did Kyrie wade through all the fully galvanized Calipari pitch, only to pick Duke at the end? Nike was supporting both programs. Cal's point guard record was the hottest discussion in college hoops. He also had Strickland to dangle in front of Kyrie's family.
So what was it? It ended up being that Duke had a better pitch for players who saw themselves (or wanted to see themselves) as more than the next kid on the NBA fast track. They sold Kyrie on Duke being everything Kentucky was - fast track to the NBA, brightest spotlight, etc. - only doing it on a more superior, elite way. Duke even went so far as to begin poaching everything we did well - "brotherhood" instead of "la familia"; pro day; fully embracing OAD, etc. All we were left with when the smoke cleared was a lesser version of Duke's pitch. They offered academics, future connections provided by university affiliation, and a connection to a real legacy centered around a head coach. Kentucky, under Cal, was only offering the quick ticket to the NBA, and the best possible training for the NBA. When recruits began to question if UK was really the best possible place for player development when compared to Duke, suddenly all of Calipari's best pitches had been thrown, while K was still fine-tuning new ones.
By the time we get to Jabari Parker's recruitment in 2012ish, Coach K's pitch was expanding. Jabari even said he didn't like the way UK was portraying the OAD setting, and came across as if it was all about the NBA with Calipari. Parker, and clearly other kids like Kyrie, wanted more, and their parents wanted more. They wanted the OAD elitism, without the OAD stigma. They wanted the reality of NBA fast-track, but wanted to do it from an elite college academic environment where their parents could pretend their son was bettering himself academically, professionally, and in terms of having future connection through the Duke "set for life" approach.
It worked. By November of 2013, Tyus Jones and Okafor both chose Duke over Kentucky. Winslow followed suit just a few months later.
Since then, Duke has beaten Kentucky for 17 out of 20 top ten guys. While we've been mocking their players and their pitch on the "set for life" angle, few of us have really heard what the players are actually saying. They've literally been telling us the same thing over and over again: they prefer what Duke is pitching to them more than what Kentucky is pitching to them.
Instead of mocking them, maybe Calipari should start listening to them and start selling recruits on everything our state and program can offer besides and beyond the NBA.