Let's talk "defensive rating" a moment.....

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

For those that understand the system, and yes, I know what I see on the court with "ole" defense and allowing offensive rebounds etc.....

But I wonder just how badly that rating is skewed based on sheer number of points scored against us? To further illustrate......if we scored EVEN MORE POINTS but also GAVE UP MORE POINTS, would our rating get even worse? Avg 120ppg for a season but you give up 105ppg?

If so, I'm not as worried about our rating.

Now we just need to get better on the court

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

I just know that the defense has improved quit a bit over the last 30 days. Over that span we are around 60 in adjusted D. Have a good tourney run and could climb into the 40’s. That would be good for me.

 

[BlueBomb]

All I know is I refuse to stick my head in the sand, just because we can score easily. No team has won a championship with our defensive rating. There's no denying that regardless of how we might want to justify the numbers.

Sure, this team could be the ONE team that bucks the trend. I hope that's the case, but I'm not expecting it. And I pray I come here and eat crow come April.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

Ever since the rule came into basketball that when you score the other team gets the ball, one thing has been true: When you score 100 points, the other team is going to get a whole lot of possessions, and more opportunities to score themselves.

And when you are scoring as fast as Kentucky does there are going to be chances for the other team to counter-punch with a quick strike.

So, in principle, I agree. A team that wins 60-45 will have a great defensive efficiency rating and a team that wins 100-85 probably won't. That's not to say Kentucky's defense wasn't really porous much of the season. BUt it was very good, for example, against Auburn. And has been decent most games since.

You did a nice job explaining my example. That's exactly my point.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

For those that understand the system, and yes, I know what I see on the court with "ole" defense and allowing offensive rebounds etc.....

But I wonder just how badly that rating is skewed based on sheer number of points scored against us? To further illustrate......if we scored EVEN MORE POINTS but also GAVE UP MORE POINTS, would our rating get even worse? Avg 120ppg for a season but you give up 105ppg?

If so, I'm not as worried about our rating.

Now we just need to get better on the court

Our problem on defense is more a defensive rebounding problem than anything else. The ratings are screwy because they are edited. Especially kenpom. It doesn't change how the game was played but it looks different on paper if you remove possessions. Tn had 15 offensive rebounds against us last Sat. Just cut those in half and it's a blowout. That's what we need to work on. Not how it looks on paper. We are getting better. Tn got 15 offensive rebounds but Tn is very good too. And they were home and they are older and have learned how to work SEC officials. Our fouls are obvious. Tn fouled just as much. But they hide theirs.

Back to kenpom numbers. He doesn't count an offensive rebound as a possession. He does that because he is tracking pace. If you add those possessions in, 15 for Tn and I think it was 11 for us there is 26 more possessions and it would look on paper like it was played at a much faster pace. But that's all it is, on paper. The game was played how the game was played and at the pace it was played at.

It doesn't matter what he wants to put on paper though. Offensive rebounds are possessions. If an offensive player tips in a miss it's an offensive rebound and a shot attempt. But kenpom would have you believe that a guy got a rebound and took a shot without ever possessing the ball. Just ridiculous. But, his numbers are his numbers and he tells you that he doesn't count offensive rebounds as possessions. So be it.

What's really stupid is the committee putting any weight on those flawed numbers.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

Ever since the rule came into basketball that when you score the other team gets the ball, one thing has been true: When you score 100 points, the other team is going to get a whole lot of possessions, and more opportunities to score themselves.

And when you are scoring as fast as Kentucky does there are going to be chances for the other team to counter-punch with a quick strike.

So, in principle, I agree. A team that wins 60-45 will have a great defensive efficiency rating and a team that wins 100-85 probably won't. That's not to say Kentucky's defense wasn't really porous much of the season. BUt it was very good, for example, against Auburn. And has been decent most games since.

No. That's why they came us with these defensive ratings so that it could be compared no matter the score. They track points allowed per possession. It used to be that a stall ball team scoring 60 points a game and "holding" opponents to 50 points was considered good defense. No, they just didn't get the ball enough.

That's also why kenpom doesn't count offensive rebounds as possessions. It makes the pace look different. Still skews the numbers though.

But to your point, yes, teams flying up the court and scoring in less than 10 seconds is going to give the ball to the opponent more times and they will score more points in theory. Even if you are playing great defense.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Yes, our defense is not good, there is no question about that. But it's not as bad as the raw numbers may appear. We shoot quickly on offense and that creates more offensive opportunities for the other team. Earlier in the year, we were struggling getting any stops at all, especially for teams that had multiple shooters or multiple guys who could drive and finish. In the last 8 games, we have shown clear improvement in getting stops when they were most needed. We still scored a bunch of points and gave up a bunch of points, but the team showed they could get some stops. We were saying back in January and February, the team doesn't have to be great defensively. They just need to get better- 10% was the number Calipari was using. I think we've hit that number at this point.

And let's be honest here- some of the games where we've given up a lot of points included opponents making shots they don't usually make at such a high percentage. UK brings out of the best in teams and certain players. That is undeniable. The way Josh Hubbard made shots at the end of that Miss St game? Come on! Fading to his right, off balance, buckets! The way Knecht was making everything he threw into the air at Tennessee? Yes, he's made shots in many games, but scoring 40? Come on!

Now, when this team is dialed in, there is no doubt in my mind they can beat anyone in the country this season. Even if we're not making shots early, we're gonna make a run at some point. Has the defense improved enough to keep the team in range on a cold shooting half? I think we have enough weapons now that a couple guys can have an off-night and we can still win. Time will tell. Just win baby!

 

[know1]

I just know that the defense has improved quit a bit over the last 30 days. Over that span we are around 60 in adjusted D. Have a good tourney run and could climb into the 40’s. That would be good for me.

Where is this documented, though. I've seen other posters say that the rating has actually gotten worse over the last 30 day...although I doubt that because we've slowly climbed higher in the 90s.

That doesn't change that our defense really doesn't appear to be good enough - in the eye test or in the metrics - to have much faith that we get to a Final Four, much less win it.

 

[know1]

Where can we find stats for opponent points per possession rankings? I've looked a little bit and can't find it. I think that would be the most telling stat because our opponents do get more possessions since we score so much and so quickly.

 

[jeffky]

Juli fulks holds her opponents to 42.7 a game

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

Where can we find stats for opponent points per possession rankings? I've looked a little bit and can't find it. I think that would be the most telling stat because our opponents do get more possessions since we score so much and so quickly.

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

Set time frame from Feb 12 to present. Adjusted O 12, adjusted D 55.