Kentucky v. Miss State (Sat)

[Comebakatz3]

Oklahoma State is also in the discussion to host, but they have some work to do. They lost 2 of 3 to Iowa last weekend and they lost Friday to Baylor. They won tonight, but they also have to host Texas Tech next weekend. So, they need to finish it out strong to really make a good argument to host. They have an RPI of 21 right now, so that would be a pretty far stretch out of the top 16 RPI to give them a host site.

 

[ukdesi]

If we finish 16-14 in SEC play, then I have to imagine that UK will host regardless of what we do in the SEC tournament.

Right now Florida, Georgia, Arkansas, and Ole Miss are locked to host. D1Baseball had Georgia as a number 4 national seed. I think they slide after this weekend where they may very well get swept by Florida. D1Baseball then listed Auburn as a top 16 seed. So, they think that 5 SEC teams will likely host. So, UK needs to finish above those teams that are on the cusp of hosting, Auburn being one. Ole Miss swept Auburn this weekend and they are now 13-14. Texas A&M is another team that is right on the cusp, but so far Arkansas has taken two from them with one more to go tomorrow. So, they are now 12-14. They play South Carolina and Auburn plays LSU. So, if we finish ahead of those two then we are likely to host as long as they don't make giant runs in the SEC tournament.

Duke has also played themselves into a regional at this point. They have now taken 2 of 3 (so far) from UNC (RPI top 5). So, they are probably pretty much locked into a host.

So far, it is somewhat simple to write in (in no particular order):

Florida
Stanford
Oregon State
Arkansas
Texas Tech
Stetson
Florida State
Clemson
Duke
East Carolina
Georgia
Ole Miss
UNC

So, that is 13 teams and you have 3 spots left. Minnesota out of the Big 10 looked to be the team that would step up to take one of those spots, but losing to RPI 201 Michigan State last night dropped them 9 spots this week. UConn is another team that is on the cusp, but they have lost back to back games to RPI 49 Houston. They will also have to face RPI 14 East Carolina in the last weekend. So, the poor showing at the end of the year may make them fade out of the picture. NC State could lock down one of those spots if they take the series from (10) FSU next weekend.

You then have Auburn, Kentucky, and Texas A&M all with RPIs around 11-16. I don't think two of these will get in. I think one of them gets in, unless they all bomb. So, it is there for the taking. I think we have to win two against Vandy and finish at least .500 to get to host. I certainly think 16-14 does it, but .500 might do it as well.

Thanks for the detailed analysis. Based off your post, 6 teams vying for 3 spots......not gonna be that easy. I actually think we need 16-14 to finish ahead of the other SEC teams in the running.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

If UK:
--sweeps Miss State
--beats Murray
--goes 2-1 vs Vandy
--at least lives up to seeding in Hoover (not upset)

Thinking that should be good enough to host .....

Completely agree with this. Going 2-1 against Candy would put us at 16-14 in SEC and should get a host

 

[irishcat1965]

I hate to beat a dead horse, but win the UT and Bama series and UK would be a virtual lock to hosting with a 15-11 SEC record right now.

 

[irishcat1965]

Does Harper start tomorrow?

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

I hate to beat a dead horse, but win the UT and Bama series and UK would be a virtual lock to hosting with a 15-11 SEC record right now.

Ugh, you're so right. We would be a lock if we win those two series, and would be close to a lock if we had even one of those series back.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Thanks for the detailed analysis. Based off your post, 6 teams vying for 3 spots......not gonna be that easy. I actually think we need 16-14 to finish ahead of the other SEC teams in the running.

Here is something interesting...

Tomorrow's game(s) are the biggest of the season at this point. That seems like a silly thing to say because it is a given, but this is how huge it is: IF Arkansas beats TAMU tomorrow then that means that Arkansas swept Auburn, TAMU and Kentucky. IF UK wins tomorrow against Miss. State we will have swept them and will be the only team of those three teams that did so. The tie breaker for the SEC tournament, if there were a team and if it is a 3+ team tie, is to compare records against common opponents. All three played Florida and all three went 1-2. All three played Arkansas and all three may go 0-3. All three play Miss. State, the next highest rated common opponent, and UK could be 3-0 with the other two 1-2. Auburn would then get the nod over TAMU in ranking because they beat them head to head. If we happen to all finish .500 and UK loses to Miss State tomorrow then it will come down to the Alabama series and UK will be the odd man out having lost 2 of 3 while they both swept the Crimson Tide. That would, again, put Auburn in the lead.

Hopefully we finish above both those teams and even better we win the next 4 games, but that is just something to think about going into the last Sunday in the SEC.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Ugh, you're so right. We would be a lock if we win those two series, and would be close to a lock if we had even one of those series back.

Yep, pretty crazy that it basically is coming down to just two games for us. Still, have to like that we have our own fate in our own hands.

 

[irishcat1965]

You know these two loses have to be a bitter pills to swallow for Gary Henderson.

 

[ukdesi]

Here is something interesting...

Tomorrow's game(s) are the biggest of the season at this point. That seems like a silly thing to say because it is a given, but this is how huge it is: IF Arkansas beats TAMU tomorrow then that means that Arkansas swept Auburn, TAMU and Kentucky. IF UK wins tomorrow against Miss. State we will have swept them and will be the only team of those three teams that did so. The tie breaker for the SEC tournament, if there were a team and if it is a 3+ team tie, is to compare records against common opponents. All three played Florida and all three went 1-2. All three played Arkansas and all three may go 0-3. All three play Miss. State, the next highest rated common opponent, and UK could be 3-0 with the other two 1-2. Auburn would then get the nod over TAMU in ranking because they beat them head to head. If we happen to all finish .500 and UK loses to Miss State tomorrow then it will come down to the Alabama series and UK will be the odd man out having lost 2 of 3 while they both swept the Crimson Tide. That would, again, put Auburn in the lead.

Hopefully we finish above both those teams and even better we win the next 4 games, but that is just something to think about going into the last Sunday in the SEC.

Wow that is interesting. We really need a Sweep ! Too bad JLew is out tomorrow for such a big game.

 

[Comebakatz3]

You know these two loses have to be a bitter pills to swallow for Gary Henderson.

No sweat off my back.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Guys that game would have been a bummer as good as our pitching staff did and that is with may be the WORST B/S UMPIRE IVE EVER SEEN IN MY LIFE!!! I think he cost Zack 12-15 pitches. I think half the stadium and a several of the players had words for him. He even started towards the dugout once. He was really bad!!!

 

[sluggercatfan]

Wow that is interesting. We really need a Sweep ! Too bad JLew is out tomorrow for such a big game.

Hopefully we score a bunch tomorrow and it won't matter .

 

[irishcat1965]

I hate to be greedy, but we need a sweep tomorrow. But do we have the pitching left to pull it off?

 

[sluggercatfan]

I hate to beat a dead horse, but win the UT and Bama series and UK would be a virtual lock to hosting with a 15-11 SEC record right now.

Agree IC, but we can't deal with the past. Gotten take care of business.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

MSU's Sunday guy couldn't be as good as the Fri. and Sat. guys, so if Harper, Schaenzer, Coleman, if available, etc. can keep us ahead, to get to Mach, I like our chances.
And for gosh sakes, we want to win the regular season finale at the Cliff....this is a MUST !

 

[Comebakatz3]

I hate to be greedy, but we need a sweep tomorrow. But do we have the pitching left to pull it off?

Hard to say. Harper has to be a stud tomorrow. Then we could see McGeorge, Maley, and Marshall all before Machamer. Hopefully, Harper gets us a good 6 at least.

 

[Comebakatz3]

MSU's Sunday guy couldn't be as good as the Fri. and Sat. guys, so if Harper, Schaenzer, Coleman, if available, etc. can keep us ahead, to get to Mach, I like our chances.
And for gosh sakes, we want to win the regular season finale at the Cliff....this is a MUST !

Not sure that Coleman will be available, but would be big if he is.

Looks like Jacob Billingsley is their Sunday guy. 4.58 ERA. 13 starts but just 53 innings pitched. Only given up 1 long ball this year though. Could also be Denver McQuary who has a 4.96 ERA and has 5 starts. He started last week and went just 1.2 before giving way to Billingsley. Both are rights.

If I'm Henderson I find a lefty to throw to against UK.

 

[Gabewcat]

Obsevations: UK's Bullpen grew uptoday, outstanding performances from Hazelwood and Ramsey. Need a big 6 innings from Harper on Sunday and then get 1 inning from Coleman and 2 from Machemer.Gives me som hope for the Regional Tournament. I Uk wins their last 4 games and then don't lose two straight in the SEC Tournament, Uk will be a National Seed. Thisis a tall task since we would have to sweep Vandy on the road.Believe it or not UK can still finish 2nd in the east. Georgia is fading and has to finished with Arkansas. We hold the tiebreaker with Georgia and South Carolina.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Obsevations: UK's Bullpen grew uptoday, outstanding performances from Hazelwood and Ramsey. Need a big 6 innings from Harper on Sunday and then get 1 inning from Coleman and 2 from Machemer.Gives me som hope for the Regional Tournament. I Uk wins their last 4 games and then don't lose two straight in the SEC Tournament, Uk will be a National Seed. Thisis a tall task since we would have to sweep Vandy on the road.Believe it or not UK can still finish 2nd in the east. Georgia is fading and has to finished with Arkansas. We hold the tiebreaker with Georgia and South Carolina.

I don't think we have to sweep. Just get 3 of last 4

 

[sluggercatfan]

‪Mississippi State takes a 1-0 lead in the top of the first against UK’s Zack Thompson, who is clearly frustrated with HP umpire feeling he’s getting squeezed. After run scored, umpire warned him for saying something while backing up the plate. ‬

HP umpire sucked!!! He was horrible!!!

 

[Oldtrainer]

Kudos to Mason and Jimmy. well done youngsters!
Once Zack settled he was impressive.
Win this one today and head to Vandy on a big positive roll!
GO CATS!

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Kudos to Mason and Jimmy. well done youngsters!
Once Zack settled he was impressive.
Win this one today and head to Vandy on a big positive roll!
GO CATS!

Lets win today and close out the Cliff right ! BTW Vandy has seemed to tight their ship, winning the 1st 2 games in Knoxville.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Lets win today and close out the Cliff right ! BTW Vandy has seemed to tight their ship, winning the 1st 2 games in Knoxville.

Not winning the series against bama and ut and winning at least one against Ark is keeping us from being high up the food chain right now.

 

[irishcat1965]

I was thinking of going to Nashville for a game. But the forecast is thunderstorms the entire series. Would they possibly move the games to Lexington?

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Guys that game would have been a bummer as good as our pitching staff did and that is with may be the WORST B/S UMPIRE IVE EVER SEEN IN MY LIFE!!! I think he cost Zack 12-15 pitches. I think half the stadium and a several of the players had words for him. He even started towards the dugout once. He was really bad!!!

The two home plate umps this weekend have been two of the worst all year. I thought Friday guy was awful, but yesterday was worse. Plus, the guy yesterday was really full of himself and got into it with Zach, Ming, and others. Thought Ming was going to get thrown out at one point, was really jawing with him...

 

[RogerIndy]

I hate to beat a dead horse, but win the UT and Bama series and UK would be a virtual lock to hosting with a 15-11 SEC record right now.

That's water under the bridge.

 

[Comebakatz3]

By the way, if anyone can sneak an extra commemorative ball for me and arrange to send it to me I'll gladly work out a compensation for it.

 

[ulismyman]

Whats it take to be an SEC umpire??? Apparantly being old crotchety and bad eyesight...i have something to do when i retire