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KenPom Just Dropped

I honestly won't have an inkling of what this team can be until I watch the first real game. I'm glad people are sleeping on this team. Beats being overestimated every year like we have to the past imo.
 
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It's meaningless until there are games played, I would say at least 5 per team. So, any modeling right now, has way too many assumptions to be valid.
This is coming from a Statistician who has developed a model.
Yeah.

It’s just a baseline to help predict early season games. The model performs better in those games with it than without it.

As we play more games, the preseason ranking becomes less and less relevant.
 
Nah. If someone wants to believe we could lose 4/5 to start SEC play... ok, that's whatever. But this team is not finishing the season like that. And I don't even have to look at the schedule. I expect us to be a real problem by the end of conf play.
Seriously, with the experience on this team, we should be a problem from the start. It takes every team some time to reach their true form and, we will get better as the season wears on. At the same time, if the hype is even close to real, we should be good from day one.
 
I just hope our delusional fans do not turn on Coach Pope. I hope they understand he can't be expected to turn this program around year one with a total rebuild through the portal
Not a lot to go off of in a team scrimmage demo, but they do have a long way to go. It's going to take a year for everyone to truly be on the same page.
 
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Do these people STILL not understand John Calipari the coach?? The Arkansas roster isn't stellar (even if they were not all suffering from mystery Cal injuries), but John Calipari would have struggled to bring home the bronze with the 92 Dream Team.
Calipari beat the 96 UK team.
 
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My own pet theory is that after the few transcendent players that there is little difference among the hundreds of players who fill out the ranks of Div 1 college hoops. Training, coaching, the day's events, the player's frame of mind, luck -- all of those level wins and losses out. Man o' War lost one to Upset. (Really. That was the horse's name.) Mighty Casey struck out. People with ranking systems who post pre-season predictions are just pushing their brand.
 
#42??!! That's hilarious. It's going to be awesome way outperforming national expectations this year vs what we had been doing for many years now.
I sure hope so, one thing is for sure. I will be cheering my ass off and tuning into every game again. I watched most Cal games but after 2020 a lot of game I knew we would just lose because I’d seen it before so much.
 
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It’s even emptier than I thought. I believe my prediction of 2k people is about right.

If that. You know those kids were hyped when they committed. Had visions of coming out under the lights. Big crowd cheering. All of it.

Got absolutely none of it. Got to be bummed.
 
Don't try to reason on this board. It's not wanted.

But, yeah, I agree.

I can see a scenario this team is a few games over .500 and middle of the pack in conference. I also see a scenario it wins 25 games and is top 3 in conference. My gut tells me it's a roughly 10 loss team, somewhere around 4-6 in conference and a 5/6 seed in the tourney.
So about like the last few years except without one and done freshmen?
 
Most out there outside the fanbase thinks UK made a mistake (Minus Pitino), think UK has a bunch of scrubs, does not have anyone to lead the team in scoring. Thinks our bigs are not SEC bigs, our guards are not going to be able to play in the SEC.

I have no idea on that but have this to say.

Pope knows what guys he wanted, he got the guys he wanted. Pope knows how to coach (some do not believe in him yet, saying too early to tell). I think CMP will prove to guys that UK and Pope has what it takes. I think we will be top 3 or so in the SEC (if players buy into the system 100%). I believe we have some dogs, Butler, Krissa, Oweh are dogs on both sides of the ball. I believe we have guys that can get buckets, i also believe we have multiple guys (depending on the game) that can be the guy to get us a bucket.

I am tired of the preseason so called experts talk. I am tired of the wait. I want to get to the getting. GO BIG BLUE!
 
Here's what Arkansas fans should remember about Kenpom: The week before the NCAA Tournament last year, Kentucky was 13 and Oakland was 141.
Upsets happen in a random tournament. Bill Self has nine 1st and 2nd round exits. Jay Wright had two 1st round and two 2nd round exits with no tournament in between.

It’s been a little underwhelming for sure but by some of the posts you’d think he was making the NIT every year.
 
It’s been a little underwhelming for sure but by some of the posts you’d think he was making the NIT every year.
lol. In the past four seasons he had the TWO worst NCAA tournament losses by Kentucky in program history AND the worst season by a Kentucky team since before WW 2. The other year he choked away a highly winnable game to Kansas State. One NCAA tournament win in five years. And no SEC tournament success.

A little underwhelming? That’s like saying the passengers on the Titanic were a little disappointed in the service. Or Custer was a little annoyed by the Indians.

He has been a historic failure. At least by Kentucky standards. I realize that Arkansas is used to mediocrity and more accepting of it.
 
Translation ; I thought you all would want to see that the hogs are ahead of you in a pre season clown poll. Wooo pig.

New poster from April 8th 2024. Cow left UK the 9th (announced) did Cow get rid of his dog about then or trade it in for a piglet? 8 posts so I guess the piglet is greased... Just hasn't had time to post much I guess...
 
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I think we have some pre-season rankings banners in the basement of Rupp. I think they're behind the ''NCAA recruiting champions'' banners, though. I'm sure we could fit some of yall's in there too. If Bud Walton overflows with them.
 
Upsets happen in a random tournament. Bill Self has nine 1st and 2nd round exits. Jay Wright had two 1st round and two 2nd round exits with no tournament in between.

It’s been a little underwhelming for sure but by some of the posts you’d think he was making the NIT every year.

Both guys you mentioned also have twice the titles that Cal has, with about 1/5th the talent.
 
lol. In the past four seasons he had the TWO worst NCAA tournament losses by Kentucky in program history AND the worst season by a Kentucky team since before WW 2. The other year he choked away a highly winnable game to Kansas State. One NCAA tournament win in five years. And no SEC tournament success.

A little underwhelming? That’s like saying the passengers on the Titanic were a little disappointed in the service. Or Custer was a little annoyed by the Indians.

He has been a historic failure. At least by Kentucky standards. I realize that Arkansas is used to mediocrity and more accepting of it.

I knew you’d come around some day. It’s like Neo waking up from his human battery goo pod in the Matrix yall. Happy for you bro.
 
“Taking a deeper dive into KenPom’s take on the Cats, there isn’t really much to love. The analytics predict Kentucky to finish 18-13 on the year and 8-10 in the SEC, picked to lose against Duke (neutral), Clemson (road), Gonzaga (neutral), Ohio State (neutral), Georgia (away), Mississippi State (away), Texas A&M (home), Alabama (home), Tennessee (away), Ole Miss (away), Tennessee (home), Texas (away), Alabama (away), Oklahoma (away) and Missouri (away).

On the flip side, KenPom does predict a win over Arkansas on Feb. 1 inside Rupp Arena. Besides that, though, it’s a projected loss in every potential toss-up game on the schedule.”

 
Yes it usually takes nearly a half a season to come to any meaningful data.
Yeah, the rankings take into account last year's data at this point. It slowly fades out, I believe until somewhere around early to mid January, then it's based solely on the current year.

So right now the current Kenpom rankings mean literally nothing.
 
“Taking a deeper dive into KenPom’s take on the Cats, there isn’t really much to love. The analytics predict Kentucky to finish 18-13 on the year and 8-10 in the SEC, picked to lose against Duke (neutral), Clemson (road), Gonzaga (neutral), Ohio State (neutral), Georgia (away), Mississippi State (away), Texas A&M (home), Alabama (home), Tennessee (away), Ole Miss (away), Tennessee (home), Texas (away), Alabama (away), Oklahoma (away) and Missouri (away).

On the flip side, KenPom does predict a win over Arkansas on Feb. 1 inside Rupp Arena. Besides that, though, it’s a projected loss in every potential toss-up game on the schedule.”

This is the most pessimistic possible take. Conference will be tough but to say we lose every big OOC game is BS. We could easily make it through the OOC only losing 2 or fewer of those games and I say a max of 6 conference losses. Projecting a loss in every toss up would seem to show bias or an issue with the numbers in my book.
 
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