Is it OK to expect UK to crack the Top 25 in Stoops' 6th season?

[kev69]

This is the year we get over the hump.

 

[Robcatt24]

Mission accomplished.

Great job, coaches and players.

 

[JasonS.]

I think it's a fair goal against a manageable schedule. Not a ton to suggest we'll get there this year, but it's a fair goal.

Baseline for me showing progress would be finishing solidly within the Top 50 in the S&P+ and the Sagarin. Under Stoops, we have only cracked the Top 50 once in the Sagarin (49th in 2014) and never in the S&P+ (best finish was 53rd in 2014). FWIW, that was the one season of Neal Brown at OC and Patrick Towles at QB.

Randomly remembered this post this morning (thank you, OCD!). With the regular season now complete (and bowl play unlikely to change things much), we finished 40th in the S&P+ and 27th in Sagarin.

Pretty significant progress, especially given a poor offense and some particular performances (e.g., Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee) that, while we won, dragged us down significantly in rating models like these. We were as high as 14th in the S&P+ earlier in the season (following the South Carolina game).

 

[sluggercatfan]

Kentucky has more experience, depth, and talent than they've had in forever.

Several teams on UK's schedule are breaking in new coaches. In the case of Mississippi State and Tennessee, first time head coaches.

Louisville has lost their Heisman QB.

We have proven SEC level veterans. Conrad, Snell, Edwards, Baity, Allen.

Some big time young talent who got some experience last season and hopefully become even better with the typical freshman to sophomore jump. Guys like Paschal, Bowden, Bohanna, Watson, Jackson.

The return of Dorian Baker at WR. The addition of former 5 star OL E.J. Price.

We have continuity on the coaching staff, especially on offense, with Gran, Hinshaw, Schlarman, and Marrow being here multiple seasons.

Stoops is now one of the longest tenured head coaches in the SEC.

UK is coming off back to back bowl seasons. Has winning streaks against peer SEC East programs South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. A rare win against Tennessee.

The program has some positive momentum going.

So is it reasonable to expect, and actually demand, that this program finally achieves a Top 25 ranking in Mark Stoops' 6th season in Lexington?

If not, then when? Because UK looks to lose a lot of talent after 2018.

Look good offensively and win the Citrus and we can talk.

 

[JC CATS]

No. A big reason is Stoops. Il leave it there.

Where have you been friend? I haven't seen you around much this season?

 

[sambowieshin]

This is the year we get over the hump.

Very prophetic.....

 

[kev69]

Very prophetic.....

Well, I definitely prefer prophetic over pathetic. lol

 

[sluggercatfan]

If we have some sound QB play I think UK can be in the top 20.
A QB that reads the defense well, checks to the right play and can complete the short pass,
just manage the game, will make UK a pretty tuff opponent.

We better be scoring more points with this...this defense has been a once in a lifetime for UK.

 

[sambowieshin]

Well, I definitely prefer prophetic over pathetic. lol

Or prosthetic....

 

[gossie21]

Randomly remembered this post this morning (thank you, OCD!). With the regular season now complete (and bowl play unlikely to change things much), we finished 40th in the S&P+ and 27th in Sagarin.

Pretty significant progress, especially given a poor offense and some particular performances (e.g., Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee) that, while we won, dragged us down significantly in rating models like these. We were as high as 14th in the S&P+ earlier in the season (following the South Carolina game).

Can you explain how ratings like S&P have us ranked below 39 other teams? Even 27th in the Sagarin seems absurd.

 

[gossie21]

In the S&P Kentucky is ranked behind the following:

10. Fresno State (11-2)
12. Mississippi State (8-4)
13. App. St. (10-2)
14. Florida (9-3)
21. Utah State (10-2)
23. Memphis (8-5)
31. North Texas (9-3)
33. South Carolina (7-5)
34. Temple (8-4)
37. Purdue (6-6)
38. San Diego State (7-5)
39. USC (5-7)

How is this a legitimate measuring stick?

 

[JasonS.]

Can you explain how ratings like S&P have us ranked below 39 other teams? Even 27th in the Sagarin seems absurd.

You can delve into the numbers here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...zo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#

Short answer is our play against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee and Middle Tennessee took us on a pretty steady fall from 14th to 48th ... then the Louisville game moved us back up to 40th.

Our percentile performance* in those games was:

Texas A&M: 29%
Vanderbilt: 52%
Georgia: 40%
Tennessee: 13% (this is very, very bad ... for reference, a 3-9 Western Kentucky is a 13% for the season)
Middle Tennessee: 58%

* Opponent-adjusted performance in that game relative to what an average team would have done -- 50th percentile being average and equating to about the 65th best team nationally.

Two of those games we won, but all five dragged us down in the S&P+ as by the numbers we performed worse than we should have given our prior week's S&P rating.

Here's the rest of our games:
Central Michigan: 74%
Florida: 95% (this is very, very good ... on par with performance of a Top 10 team)
Murray State: 82nd
Mississippi State: 95%
South Carolina: 81%
Missouri: 76%
Louisville: 71%

Overall for the season, a Top 15 team should have an S&P+ of around 87%. Ours is 68.8%.

 

[UKUGA]

In the S&P Kentucky is ranked behind the following:

10. Fresno State (11-2)
12. Mississippi State (8-4)
13. App. St. (10-2)
14. Florida (9-3)
21. Utah State (10-2)
23. Memphis (8-5)
31. North Texas (9-3)
33. South Carolina (7-5)
34. Temple (8-4)
37. Purdue (6-6)
38. San Diego State (7-5)
39. USC (5-7)

How is this a legitimate measuring stick?

Well, we only beat 3 of those teams.

 

[gossie21]

Well, we only beat 3 of those teams.

And we would beat any of the teams we haven't played that are ranked above us. I can understand some computer models that have us lower than the 14-16 range were we are currently ranked. But not when it's 11 to 26 spots lower.

 

[Magilla Gorillla]

I say we look for a new head coach if we don't get in the top 25 this year.

Microwave society fans tried to derail this this program.

 

[JHB4UK]

Hahaha, some of the names here. Why don't they post anymore with joy & happiness over the last 4 yrs of winning!?!?

 

[The-Hack]

Hahaha, some of the names here. Why don't they post anymore with joy & happiness over the last 4 yrs of winning!?!?

They do post.

But have adopted new monikers.