Is it OK to expect UK to crack the Top 25 in Stoops' 6th season?

[gobigblue812]

Explain how we are on par with the other teams in talent. We may be on par with 3 or 4 teams. All the rest have superior talent.

High school star rankings don't always translate to 4 or 5 *college players. Yes, a lot of them do but not all of them. Some rosters in the SEC have had huge turnover so you can't just look at recruiting classes from 3 or 4 years ago. UK may not have equivalent 2nd string talent but a lot of first string guys could be play on other SEC east teams or Mississippi State's team.

We don't really need to be on par with LSU, Bama, Auburn, etc because we rarely play the west teams except for MSU

 

[seccats04]

Explain how we are on par with the other teams in talent. We may be on par with 3 or 4 teams. All the rest have superior talent.

I wouldn't say the rest have superior talent. There are usually 8 programs that recruit in the top 25 (Bama, Auburn, LSU, TxAM, Ga, UT, UF, USCe). The next 4 usually are in the top 35 or so (UK, MSU, Ole Miss, Ark). So the difference between the 8th ranked class and the 12th ranked class is about 10 spots total. It's complete speculation after the top 10-15 classes anyway. That doesn't take into account player retention (which I still say we have a high number every year-that needs to stop), player development, etc.

 

[sluggercatfan]

I'm with Grumpy. Remember who decides the teams that land in the top 25. We have rarely if ever been the media darlings. Even with a running back leading the SEC in yardage we can't get any love. It matters where the media ranks you preseason. We were within a whisker of beating a 10-win team, in our bowl game, who beat Michigan State during the season.

Welcome to the Rodney Dangerfield of college football. Not only do we have to win the games, but we also have to overcome a lazy and biased media to a large extent. The media is in their comfort zone putting us near the end of their preseason rankings because that is where we have historically ended our seasons.

If our running back, who has accomplished in two seasons what only two goats of the SEC have done throughout history, cannot get well deserved recognition how does the team achieve it?

Benny has gotten plenty of pub.

 

[Deeeefense]

Making it to the top 25 depends on TWO things, how good you are as a team, and how good all the other teams that are competing for those spots are. IMO it's always harder to make the T25 in the SEC because the pollsters look more heavily at wins/losses then strength of schedule. Since you are more likely to have a better W/L record in a weaker conference, it puts SEC teams at a little bit of a disadvantage.

So I can't use the word "demand" but I would say that we have a T25 type of team this year. A lot can happen and the unexpected will undoubtedly pop up this year as it does every year.

 

[cat888]

I think we should expect it. Defense is definitely experienced. No changes in coordinators. O line deeper. All SEC running back. True wide receivers coach.
At least three OOC games for the quarterback to find his footing.

If Kentucky IS gonna make that jump, last year and this year is the time.

The Cats played poorly against Georgia tech in a bowl and it carried over.
The Cats played gut check football while outmanned against a top 20 Northwestern team and almost pulled it out. If that momentum holds, the Kentucky kids should come into their own.

I agree and the late preseason injuries last year which we did not have the depth to quickly overcome helped to get us off to a slow start..

 

[greginky1957]

I have been expecting to crack the top 25 before each of the past 4 seasons. I haven't lost hope yet, but my feeling now is that we need to become a consistent top 25 team for a few seasons consequtive in order to take the step up to Eastern division champs and an eventual SEC Championship

 

[BlueTick2]

If we have some sound QB play I think UK can be in the top 20.
A QB that reads the defense well, checks to the right play and can complete the short pass,
just manage the game, will make UK a pretty tuff opponent.

 

[WildCard]

Making it to the top 25 depends on TWO things, how good you are as a team, and how good all the other teams that are competing for those spots are. IMO it's always harder to make the T25 in the SEC because the pollsters look more heavily at wins/losses then strength of schedule. Since you are more likely to have a better W/L record in a weaker conference, it puts SEC teams at a little bit of a disadvantage.

So I can't use the word "demand" but I would say that we have a T25 type of team this year. A lot can happen and the unexpected will undoubtedly pop up this year as it does every year.

Absolutely true (especially true about pollsters looking [much] more at W/L vice SOS). BUT the other side of that schedule coin is an 8 win regular season gives an SEC team a better chance of a Top 25 finish that it does in any other conference. Until such time as TN and FL re-establish themselves as Top Ten-ish the Cats play a much more "manageable" schedule than when those regular opponents were power houses.

Peace

 

[Deeeefense]

Absolutely true (especially true about pollsters looking [much] more at W/L vice SOS). BUT the other side of that schedule coin is an 8 win regular season gives an SEC team a better chance of a Top 25 finish that it does in any other conference. Until such time as TN and FL re-establish themselves as Top Ten-ish the Cats play a much more "manageable" schedule than when those regular opponents were power houses.

Peace

Fair enough, but while everyone keeps talking about Florida and Tennessee being "down" both teams were 9-4 just one season ago, so they've had one bad season. Also while Mizzou was also "down" in 2016 and for at least the first part of 2017 since they arrived in the SEC they have made the East harder by winning the division championship twice, and our permanent opponent from the West, MSU has been improving considerably over the last few years with the Prescott lead teams and now Fitzgerald.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

In 16 UT was picked to win the division and go no worse than 10-2 and that was with a loss to UF, best team they had in years, were lucky to be 9-4, easily could have been 7-6 or worse. UF pulled a huge upset of to get to 9-4. Watching them play last season they were a shell of the 16 team. UT has been on a downward turn since Kiffin skipped town and had fallen off before they got there. UF had a couple of good seasons under McElwain, losing 10 players for the season, including their best rusher, receiver and special teams player made their offense disappear. If McElwain hadn't lied about the death threats he might have gotten a year to turn things around, if those 10 hadn't stolen the CC numbers he may have won the East again. I see UF,'s 17 season as a bump, not a trend, on the other hand UT's 16 season was just another season in a downward trend for the last 15 years that saw them be ineligible for 5 of the last 13 years.

With that said, UF hired a proven head coach with a history of developing a QB, UF's weak link the last 7 years, I see them being capable of bouncing back really quick. On the other hand, UT has a much tougher road, no one wanted the job who had head coaching experience. They had to go down the list until about the 10th option, who was a top coordinator, bringing in multiple grad transfers. I like Pruitt, I think he is a great DC, but as a head coach, not sure how he will work out,. I am reasonably sure the older players are going to be excited to play for him and may not buy in, that happened to us Kirby's first year at UGA. UT fans won't be patient, they are expecting at least 6-6 this year and at least be in the hunt for the East in 19. Don't see them being a threat to win the East for awhile, and if not Pruitt will be gone in 4-5 years.

State played will under Mullen no doubt, but with him gone, can the new guy maintain or improve the level of play at State? So far he is recruiting fairly well for State. But his resume as a QB coach and OC isn't on par with Mullen's when he took the job. The team in the west I see on the way down is LSU, I think LSU made a big mistake hiring Coach O, still can't believe they did. But they have a history of leaving things up to players and he was the players choice.

 

[jauk11]

Need at least 6-10 more years...

Finally!!!

And I thought you were too old to Learn.

lol

 

[WildCard]

Fair enough, but while everyone keeps talking about Florida and Tennessee being "down" both teams were 9-4 just one season ago, so they've had one bad season. Also while Mizzou was also "down" in 2016 and for at least the first part of 2017 since they arrived in the SEC they have made the East harder by winning the division championship twice, and our permanent opponent from the West, MSU has been improving considerably over the last few years with the Prescott lead teams and now Fitzgerald.

Over the last 10 years TN is 62-63 and has had 2 AP Top 25 finishes. FL is 86-44 but 26 of those wins came in Meyer's 13-1 seasons in 08 and 09. The Gators have 5 Top 25 finishes in those years. Great football schools to be sure but recently not as dominating as in the Fulmer and Spurrier eras.

Mizzou has always had a "better than average" program. The Mizzou teams that won the SECE in 2013 and 2014 finished #5 and #14 respectively. Health problems forced Pinkel out after the 2015 season. Odom made a big improvement from year 1 to year 2 in his first HC job. We'll see how year 3 goes.

As for MSU, I am a huge fan of Mullen's work at an SEC program I think very comparable to UK. He took over a program that had 1 winning season under Croom. We'll see if that can continue under first time HC Moorhead.

Overall, I just see an SECE that, in recent years, has not been dominated by the GA, FL, TN trio as it was in the past. GA has maintained their leadership and looks even stronger under Smart but TN and FL still have something to prove. All JMO

Peace

 

[jauk11]

Can't jump on that wagon right now. I really like the way things are pointing, but that's today. Injuries, bad luck, all kinda things figure in. We could have a crew with a winning record, go and win a bowl and not hit that top 25.
Lol.....I will give it till mid season before I start looking at other coaching possibilities.

Slugger has been beating his horses to death trying to get that wagon started moving.

 

[jauk11]

I'll go 5...and I won't comment on the rest.

Do you realize what you just said?

You are probably predicting that we beat another SEC team besides Vandy.

You do realize that you haven't even gotten rid of Stoops yet, don't you?

How is your fundraiser for the $12,000,000 going so far?.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Finally!!!

And I thought you were too old to Learn.

lol

Sarcasm, sarcasm, sarcasm.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Slugger has been beating his horses to death trying to get that wagon started moving.

All in due time

 

[Cefiro]

He needs more time to get “his” players

 

[jauk11]

All in due time

Remember mitch is still the AD.

How is your campaign to raise the $12,000,000 going, I know you are trying to keep it under cover but still-------

 

[Elijah55]

Kentucky has more experience, depth, and talent than they've had in forever.

Several teams on UK's schedule are breaking in new coaches. In the case of Mississippi State and Tennessee, first time head coaches.

Louisville has lost their Heisman QB.

We have proven SEC level veterans. Conrad, Snell, Edwards, Baity, Allen.

Some big time young talent who got some experience last season and hopefully become even better with the typical freshman to sophomore jump. Guys like Paschal, Bowden, Bohanna, Watson, Jackson.

The return of Dorian Baker at WR. The addition of former 5 star OL E.J. Price.

We have continuity on the coaching staff, especially on offense, with Gran, Hinshaw, Schlarman, and Marrow being here multiple seasons.

Stoops is now one of the longest tenured head coaches in the SEC.

UK is coming off back to back bowl seasons. Has winning streaks against peer SEC East programs South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. A rare win against Tennessee.

The program has some positive momentum going.

So is it reasonable to expect, and actually demand, that this program finally achieves a Top 25 ranking in Mark Stoops' 6th season in Lexington?

If not, then when? Because UK looks to lose a lot of talent after 2018.

No. A big reason is Stoops. Il leave it there.

 

[Elijah55]

Il put it another way, Nothing worse than running the wild cat 15 times straight in 5 3 and outs. At some point it just becomes way to easy for the other coach.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Remember mitch is still the AD.

How is your campaign to raise the $12,000,000 going, I know you are trying to keep it under cover but still-------

Agree...I have told you on numerous occasions that the the main fault I have with MB is coaches contracts have I not? There was absolutely no way it shoild have happened because it wasnt like he was going somewhere.

 

[jauk11]

Agree...I have told you on numerous occasions that the the main fault I have with MB is coaches contracts have I not? There was absolutely no way it shoild have happened because it wasnt like he was going somewhere.

The practice of giving any employee a huge sum of money for failing at their job is stupidity in action.

The only good thing is that jurich had to "settle" for "only" $4,500,000. I wish my last job had that in the contract, I might have been a failure my second day on the job. I can't wait to see what Slick Rick will be forced to settle for, starting at $45.000,000 I believe------arranged by jurich with kickbacks involved probably.

Of course jurich should have gone to jail instead of getting another penny, but this stupidity is so established now it will be hard to get rid of, I think it should be against the law but unless the law was nationwide it wouldn't do any good, it would just make Bama's advantages a little more pronounced.

 

[WildCard]

The practice of giving any employee a huge sum of money for failing at their job is stupidity in action.

The only good thing is that jurich had to "settle" for "only" $4,500,000. I wish my last job had that in the contract, I might have been a failure my second day on the job. I can't wait to see what Slick Rick will be forced to settle for, starting at $45.000,000 I believe------arranged by jurich with kickbacks involved probably.

Of course jurich should have gone to jail instead of getting another penny, but this stupidity is so established now it will be hard to get rid of, I think it should be against the law but unless the law was nationwide it wouldn't do any good, it would just make Bama's advantages a little more pronounced.

You're rambling again and letting your personal bias against UofL and Jurich cloud what actually happened. The bottom line of Jurich's contract was that he would/could be owed as much as $12M for "termination without cause". He was terminated based on a very flimsy, knee jerk "for cause" argument by the interim president and nouveau BoT. He sued. The school was legally beat from the beginning and agreed to a complete dismissal of any and all allegations of "cause" thus making his dismissal a "termination without cause". Jurich agreed to a little over $7M vis a vis the $12M per contract.

JMO, but there is a much better "for cause" argument against ex-CRP. I see no way the $45M "termination without cause" number will hold up but I suspect he will receive something in the way of a "nuisance" settlement from the school. FWIW, I fully support his dismissal but, again, it should have been a negotiated buy out. Unlike the Jurich situation I think the school holds the cards in this one. Bottom line here (for me) is an immediate and enormous over-reaction by interim/new school administration to the FBI investigation...a thing that is still puzzling to me. I expect you will respond but I'm finished on this "topic".

Peace

 

[sluggercatfan]

You're rambling again and letting your personal bias against UofL and Jurich cloud what actually happened. The bottom line of Jurich's contract was that he would/could be owed as much as $12M for "termination without cause". He was terminated based on a very flimsy, knee jerk "for cause" argument by the interim president and nouveau BoT. He sued. The school was legally beat from the beginning and agreed to a complete dismissal of any and all allegations of "cause" thus making his dismissal a "termination without cause". Jurich agreed to a little over $7M vis a vis the $12M per contract.

JMO, but there is a much better "for cause" argument against ex-CRP. I see no way the $45M "termination without cause" number will hold up but I suspect he will receive something in the way of a "nuisance" settlement from the school. FWIW, I fully support his dismissal but, again, it should have been a negotiated buy out. Unlike the Jurich situation I think the school holds the cards in this one. Bottom line here (for me) is an immediate and enormous over-reaction by interim/new school administration to the FBI investigation...a thing that is still puzzling to me. I expect you will respond but I'm finished on this "topic".

Peace

He'll certainly write you a book and give you all HIS FACTS that you are most certainly too stupid to comprehend.

 

[3kidsandme]

You're rambling again and letting your personal bias against UofL and Jurich cloud what actually happened. The bottom line of Jurich's contract was that he would/could be owed as much as $12M for "termination without cause". He was terminated based on a very flimsy, knee jerk "for cause" argument by the interim president and nouveau BoT. He sued. The school was legally beat from the beginning and agreed to a complete dismissal of any and all allegations of "cause" thus making his dismissal a "termination without cause". Jurich agreed to a little over $7M vis a vis the $12M per contract.

JMO, but there is a much better "for cause" argument against ex-CRP. I see no way the $45M "termination without cause" number will hold up but I suspect he will receive something in the way of a "nuisance" settlement from the school. FWIW, I fully support his dismissal but, again, it should have been a negotiated buy out. Unlike the Jurich situation I think the school holds the cards in this one. Bottom line here (for me) is an immediate and enormous over-reaction by interim/new school administration to the FBI investigation...a thing that is still puzzling to me. I expect you will respond but I'm finished on this "topic".

Peace

Oh poor Jurich was such a good man. How could a guy who hired so many great ethical coaches be fired. The yum center wasn't a scam that People in Louisville have to pay for. I live in Louisville I'm ok with money being taken from my kids to pay for a shit ball arena. I can always go there to watch the Thunder play. Oh wait we don't have a NBA team wtffff are we paying for.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Fair enough, but while everyone keeps talking about Florida and Tennessee being "down" both teams were 9-4 just one season ago, so they've had one bad season. Also while Mizzou was also "down" in 2016 and for at least the first part of 2017 since they arrived in the SEC they have made the East harder by winning the division championship twice, and our permanent opponent from the West, MSU has been improving considerably over the last few years with the Prescott lead teams and now Fitzgerald.

UK's SOS will be interesting to see at season's end.

 

[jauk11]

He'll certainly write you a book and give you all HIS FACTS that you are most certainly too stupid to comprehend.

Not at all, he does have an engineering degree which I admire, math teaches you to think logically.

I think you have the "Inability to understand facts" title sewed up, or maybe you just choose to ignore them.

There is a published report that jurich settled for about $5,000,000.

 

[jauk11]

You're rambling again and letting your personal bias against UofL and Jurich cloud what actually happened. The bottom line of Jurich's contract was that he would/could be owed as much as $12M for "termination without cause". He was terminated based on a very flimsy, knee jerk "for cause" argument by the interim president and nouveau BoT. He sued. The school was legally beat from the beginning and agreed to a complete dismissal of any and all allegations of "cause" thus making his dismissal a "termination without cause". Jurich agreed to a little over $7M vis a vis the $12M per contract.

JMO, but there is a much better "for cause" argument against ex-CRP. I see no way the $45M "termination without cause" number will hold up but I suspect he will receive something in the way of a "nuisance" settlement from the school. FWIW, I fully support his dismissal but, again, it should have been a negotiated buy out. Unlike the Jurich situation I think the school holds the cards in this one. Bottom line here (for me) is an immediate and enormous over-reaction by interim/new school administration to the FBI investigation...a thing that is still puzzling to me. I expect you will respond but I'm finished on this "topic".

Peace

By the way, since he threw all that money at BP when no one else would hire him, plus the $500,000 "bonus", hired his and BPs relatives to lucrative contracts, and I assume was in charge of the incomprehensible buyout that Slick Rick got AND has a LONG history of really weird and unusual things going on there (what is your explanation for a crowded room full of players all developing amnesia, for just one instance) I think there are plenty of grounds to fire him with cause. Too long a list to go over again, gotta go.

 

[cole854]

We are definitely on par talent wise with most the sec.

 

[3kidsandme]

We have gone 4 4 two straight years. Are we bama no. Are we on par with half the league the last two years standings have said we are.

 

[3kidsandme]

But good informative post

 

[JasonS.]

I think it's a fair goal against a manageable schedule. Not a ton to suggest we'll get there this year, but it's a fair goal.

Baseline for me showing progress would be finishing solidly within the Top 50 in the S&P+ and the Sagarin. Under Stoops, we have only cracked the Top 50 once in the Sagarin (49th in 2014) and never in the S&P+ (best finish was 53rd in 2014). FWIW, that was the one season of Neal Brown at OC and Patrick Towles at QB.

 

[WildCard]

I think it's a fair goal against a manageable schedule. Not a ton to suggest we'll get there this year, but it's a fair goal.

Baseline for me showing progress would be finishing solidly within the Top 50 in the S&P+ and the Sagarin. Under Stoops, we have only cracked the Top 50 once in the Sagarin (49th in 2014) and never in the S&P+ (best finish was 53rd in 2014). FWIW, that was the one season of Neal Brown at OC and Patrick Towles at QB.

Generally speaking I like dividing "rankings" (e.g., FBS football rankings) into quintiles. Naturally there are better ways rank things using standard deviations and such. But quintiles seems to offer a pretty good, easy to understand "look". And quintiles tracks pretty nicely with 5 broad and easy to grasp subjective evaluations, i.e.,:

Good (#1 - #26)
Above Average (#27 - #52)
Average (#53 - #78)
Below Average (#79 - #104)
Bad (#105 - #130)​

So, using subjective rankings over the past 5 years (2017 - 2013) the Cats have been:

Per Sagarin: Average, Average, Below Average, Above Average, Below Average
Per S&P+: Below Average, Average, Below Average, Average, Below Average​

So yes, finishing in the top 50 actually would be a pretty good year (i.e., above average)...but I suspect a lot of folks here won't see it that way.

Peace

 

[jauk11]

He'll certainly write you a book and give you all HIS FACTS that you are most certainly too stupid to comprehend.

Actually I think he is a very intelligent poster, just a little mixed up on what should and shouldn't be defensible in what is "sposed to be" amateur sports. I don't give that rating to all the posters on here, lol.

 

[JC CATS]

If they do, I may start believing he is actually more just a really good recruiter, mediocre HC and worse developer of talent. But it will take him actually taking chances, being aggressive on both sides of the ball and abandoning the old school Big 10, ball control, 3 yards and a cloud of dust, mentality.

I agree that he must be aggressive but with a new QB and Benny in the backfield, expect a lot of handoffs this fall

 

[RonEJones]

I agree that he must be aggressive but with a new QB and Benny in the backfield, expect a lot of handoffs this fall

You can run the ball a lot - just be creative and somewhat unpredictable. Take chances. I do not expect the Oregon Chip Kelly Quack Attack but they ran the ball a ton and still used used motion, misdirection, tempo, passed it enough to keep the defense guessing. Need to see this out of Stoops - but my hopes are not high.

I expect this year to be the beginning of the end for him.

 

[Robcatt24]

The more I look at our roster, if Stoops can't crack the Top 25 and get 8 regular season wins this year, then he never will.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Kentucky has more experience, depth, and talent than they've had in forever.

Several teams on UK's schedule are breaking in new coaches. In the case of Mississippi State and Tennessee, first time head coaches.

Louisville has lost their Heisman QB.

We have proven SEC level veterans. Conrad, Snell, Edwards, Baity, Allen.

Some big time young talent who got some experience last season and hopefully become even better with the typical freshman to sophomore jump. Guys like Paschal, Bowden, Bohanna, Watson, Jackson.

The return of Dorian Baker at WR. The addition of former 5 star OL E.J. Price.

We have continuity on the coaching staff, especially on offense, with Gran, Hinshaw, Schlarman, and Marrow being here multiple seasons.

Stoops is now one of the longest tenured head coaches in the SEC.

UK is coming off back to back bowl seasons. Has winning streaks against peer SEC East programs South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. A rare win against Tennessee.

The program has some positive momentum going.

So is it reasonable to expect, and actually demand, that this program finally achieves a Top 25 ranking in Mark Stoops' 6th season in Lexington?

If not, then when? Because UK looks to lose a lot of talent after 2018.

For me it is certainly okay to want it, but I just wouldn't expect it...

 

[CatGotMyTongue]

Yea he's pretty much an idiot.

He and his circle jerk partner ABH.

 

[JC CATS]

You can run the ball a lot - just be creative and somewhat unpredictable. Take chances. I do not expect the Oregon Chip Kelly Quack Attack but they ran the ball a ton and still used used motion, misdirection, tempo, passed it enough to keep the defense guessing. Need to see this out of Stoops - but my hopes are not high.

I expect this year to be the beginning of the end for him.

Agree with most of this until last sentence