Gentlemen...

[sluggercatfan]

It's possible right now. However, there's now way that we would host if we finish outside of 6th in the SEC. We have a battle and will have to make big strides to get into 6th overall.

A sweep this weekend would put us at.500 and on a good path.

 

[Comebakatz3]

A sweep this weekend would put us at.500 and on a good path.

That is very true, but it is hard to count on sweeps. South Carolina is struggling this year with an RPI of 66 and a 2-8 record against Group 1 teams. Those two wins came against both Florida and Clemson, who were unable to sweep them in 3 games. Georgia did sweep them, but they also did so with South Carolina not having their ace, Adam Hill, for that weekend. Hill has an ERA under 2.00 during SEC play, although he's only pitched just over 9 innings in 2 starts. Opponents are hitting .097 against him. To contrast that, the weekend starters for UK in conference play have ERAs of 5.16 (Hjelle), 4.50 (Haake), and 7.56 (Lewis).

Still, it is possible we sweep them and we get back to .500. However, I think we'd be doing good to take 2 of 3. If we can take 2 of 3 in every remaining series we get to 17 wins, which would typically mean that we finish SEC play in about 5th to 7th in the SEC. 5th or 6th, IMO, would be good enough to host. There are plenty of games left and a lot of ways that we can get above .500, and then some, but we have to avoid getting swept and more likely than not we will need a couple of sweeps. I say that because it is going to likely be hard to get a series win at UGA on the road and against Florida.

 

[sluggercatfan]

That is very true, but it is hard to count on sweeps. South Carolina is struggling this year with an RPI of 66 and a 2-8 record against Group 1 teams. Those two wins came against both Florida and Clemson, who were unable to sweep them in 3 games. Georgia did sweep them, but they also did so with South Carolina not having their ace, Adam Hill, for that weekend. Hill has an ERA under 2.00 during SEC play, although he's only pitched just over 9 innings in 2 starts. Opponents are hitting .097 against him. To contrast that, the weekend starters for UK in conference play have ERAs of 5.16 (Hjelle), 4.50 (Haake), and 7.56 (Lewis).

Still, it is possible we sweep them and we get back to .500. However, I think we'd be doing good to take 2 of 3. If we can take 2 of 3 in every remaining series we get to 17 wins, which would typically mean that we finish SEC play in about 5th to 7th in the SEC. 5th or 6th, IMO, would be good enough to host. There are plenty of games left and a lot of ways that we can get above .500, and then some, but we have to avoid getting swept and more likely than not we will need a couple of sweeps. I say that because it is going to likely be hard to get a series win at UGA on the road and against Florida.

Anyone have any idea on a time line for Thompson's return?

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

It's possible right now. However, there's now way that we would host if we finish outside of 6th in the SEC. We have a battle and will have to make big strides to get into 6th overall.

I tend to agree with you, but there are a few other factors in play - RPI, unbalanced conference schedules, OOC schedule.

We're currently sitting at #15 in RPI and I would think that number would continue to rise with our remaining schedule (assuming we can win more than our share). Within the conference, we miss LSU, A&M, Ole Miss. LSU is actually (shockingly) an RPI dog (sitting at #76!) at the moment while Ole Miss is #7. Mixed bag, so too hard to tell how that will impact us. With regards to OOC, we have a great series win over Texas tech, a good showing in Houston, and a win over UL (Tech is #2 in RPI and UL is a middling #33). We also have horrible losses against NKU, Xavier.

In the end, it usually comes down to weekend series wins and getting above .500 in the SEC. Need a good weekend this weekend against the Cocks!

 

[CliffDweller25]

Anyone have any idea on a time line for Thompson's return?

He started a throwing program earlier this week. Should still be at least two weeks before he returns.