There seem to be more different bowl scenarios for UK this year than ever before. I think the following are all realistic options: Outback, Gator, Belk, Music, Texas, and Liberty.
Here are the keys:
1) UT needs to lose to Mizzou
2) UK needs to beat UL
3) Chalk at the top (i.e. Georgia beats A&M, Bama beats auburn)
a. This is key b/c it keeps Georgia, Florida, Alabama, LSU all in the playoffs or in the NY 6 bowls. If, for example, UF loses to FSU, then they could drop down to the citrus which would push all other SEC teams down a notch.
4) A&M needs to lose to LSU and to Georgia. This is further down the priority list b/c i'm honestly not sure if a 7-5 A&M or a 7-5 UK is more attractive to bowls. For texas-based bowl games like the Houston, I'm sure they'd prefer A&M. For florida bowls or eastern bowls like Belk, I would think they would prefer UK.
5) Fan motivation: This is critical. Here is how i see it.
-UK: Beating UL and finishing 7-5 after our earlier struggles would have a pretty motivated fanbase especially if it's at a UK-friendly bowl like Music or if it's in Florida (Outback would draw a huge UK crowd).
-UT: This is UK's main competition, IMO. If UT finishes 7-5, then they are clearly going to be chosen ahead of UK b/c I think the big orange will travel in huge numbers after recovering from their miserable start.
-A&M: How excited really are A&M fans after their $75MM coach finishes 7-5 (again)? Meh, I honestly think they are NOT excited to go anywhere.
-Auburn: See A&M. They lost every game of consequence except for Oregon. Auburn has a great traveling fanbase and maybe they show up in Tampa or Orlando, but hard to image this being a great motivator for that fanbase after losing to Alabama again (assuming that they do)
In short, I think UK is in great shape if they win out. It's conceivable that the could even get chosen above a team with a slightly better record b/c i believe A&M is just not excited to go to any of these bowls. UT is the wild card, as I think they're clearly going to be ahead of UK if both teams finish 7-5