Here's a quick overview of UK's eight remaining regular season games, the NET rating metrics on the opponents, and some additional tidbits about what may need to happen from here on out...
ARK 28 Q1
@UGA 126
@MSU 46 Q1
UT 2 Q1
@FLA 43 Q1
AUB 31 Q2
VAN 107
@ARK 28 Q1
* Quad 1 wins are Top 30 at home, Top 50 neutral site, and Top 75 on the road.
First things first, UK could actually hurt itself (in a weird way) by winning tonight. It could knock Arkansas out of the Top 30 temporarily. Of course, you want to win no matter what, but this could be a Q2 win at the end of the night. Similarly, Auburn is on the cusp of Q1/Q2. So, outside of these three games against the Cats listed above, UK fans probably need to root for Arkansas and Auburn in their other games. Not sure it's possible, but Michigan is 68 in the NET. If the Wolverines could get red-hot and make it to 50, that neutral-court win could become a Q1 for the Cats. Might be too late to make up that much ground.
KENTUCKY DATA:
Q1: 1-6 (Has a chance to be close to .500)
Q2: 6-0 (Taking care of business here.)
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 6-1 (30% of UK's total games have been Q4 to date. That's WAY too many for this program. Not good scheduling. Ex: Alabama and Kansas have 3 and 4, respectively.)
OTHER RANKINGS:
NET 32
BPI 23
KP 33
SAG 27
RPI 49 (Don't think the committee uses this one anymore, but threw it in there to get all five of the major ones.)
Average of these rankings = 32.8, 8/9 seed
Interestingly, this isn't playing out in Lunardi's latest Bracketology. Cats are moving up, but just a 10 seed. UNC, with a very similar resume is a 9 seed. Duke, another with a similar resume and three blowout losses now, is a 7 seed. The Q1 column and that South Carolina loss really seems to be weighing UK down by comparison.
UNC = 1-7 vs. Q1 (lone Q1 win is Ohio State, which is currently reeling and No. 42)
Duke = 3-7 vs. Q1 (a couple of those Q1 Ws are borderline Q2. Could wind up with less.)
Duke's remaining schedule is interesting for all of this. Their next game is UVA, which could also be their last shot to move up. @UNC could end up being a Q1 at the end, but Heels are borderline at 44 in the NET, and they have a trickier stretch coming up that could cause them to dip lower toward Q2 status.
Also of note, it seems that UK's lower-than-expected seed could assist in one way. The Cats are currently slated for the Louisville regional, which would not have likely happened if they were a 2-5 seed. As a 10, if they could get past the first weekend, they could play in Louisville. I don't think Purdue, currently tabbed as No. 1 at the Yum! Center, would be too thrilled with that.
ARK 28 Q1
@UGA 126
@MSU 46 Q1
UT 2 Q1
@FLA 43 Q1
AUB 31 Q2
VAN 107
@ARK 28 Q1
* Quad 1 wins are Top 30 at home, Top 50 neutral site, and Top 75 on the road.
First things first, UK could actually hurt itself (in a weird way) by winning tonight. It could knock Arkansas out of the Top 30 temporarily. Of course, you want to win no matter what, but this could be a Q2 win at the end of the night. Similarly, Auburn is on the cusp of Q1/Q2. So, outside of these three games against the Cats listed above, UK fans probably need to root for Arkansas and Auburn in their other games. Not sure it's possible, but Michigan is 68 in the NET. If the Wolverines could get red-hot and make it to 50, that neutral-court win could become a Q1 for the Cats. Might be too late to make up that much ground.
KENTUCKY DATA:
Q1: 1-6 (Has a chance to be close to .500)
Q2: 6-0 (Taking care of business here.)
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 6-1 (30% of UK's total games have been Q4 to date. That's WAY too many for this program. Not good scheduling. Ex: Alabama and Kansas have 3 and 4, respectively.)
OTHER RANKINGS:
NET 32
BPI 23
KP 33
SAG 27
RPI 49 (Don't think the committee uses this one anymore, but threw it in there to get all five of the major ones.)
Average of these rankings = 32.8, 8/9 seed
Interestingly, this isn't playing out in Lunardi's latest Bracketology. Cats are moving up, but just a 10 seed. UNC, with a very similar resume is a 9 seed. Duke, another with a similar resume and three blowout losses now, is a 7 seed. The Q1 column and that South Carolina loss really seems to be weighing UK down by comparison.
UNC = 1-7 vs. Q1 (lone Q1 win is Ohio State, which is currently reeling and No. 42)
Duke = 3-7 vs. Q1 (a couple of those Q1 Ws are borderline Q2. Could wind up with less.)
Duke's remaining schedule is interesting for all of this. Their next game is UVA, which could also be their last shot to move up. @UNC could end up being a Q1 at the end, but Heels are borderline at 44 in the NET, and they have a trickier stretch coming up that could cause them to dip lower toward Q2 status.
Also of note, it seems that UK's lower-than-expected seed could assist in one way. The Cats are currently slated for the Louisville regional, which would not have likely happened if they were a 2-5 seed. As a 10, if they could get past the first weekend, they could play in Louisville. I don't think Purdue, currently tabbed as No. 1 at the Yum! Center, would be too thrilled with that.
