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Down 7, 4.08 minutes to go...Season on the line. Who do you take as a coach?

MdWIldcat55

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Dec 9, 2007
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Okay, it's a trick question.

Just finished watching the last five minutes of this game. Nice memory from the recent past - Kentucky, under Calipari, down 7 to Pitino's Louisville team in the Sweet 16, outplay them down the stretch for a huge win... ...(click on the "Watch on Youtube" link...)

 
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Dean Smith and the four corners

if you really want to be honest every coach has won and lost games just like that
 
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Pitino comes to mind. Cal might be OK if he’s down 7, but up 7 with 4 min to go, he shuts the team down.

Not that I agree with analytics all the time, but numbers suggest that is the correct way to play by limiting the chances of a team coming back. The thing is even if you win those games it isn't quite as "entertaining" to watch thus they are not as memorable. However if you do lose then everyone remembers. Especially if it's the last game that ends your season.

As I said I don't necessarily agree with this strategy, but the numbers usually pan out. I'm of the thinking if you're the better team (which if you build a lead you should say you are) you continue to play the way that got you the lead. Now in certain situations, losing a player to an injury or foul trouble changes my thinking a little.

The big difference in Calipari and Pitino philosophies is Cal usually doesn't want to embarrass another team (especially most of the conference teams) where Pitino would love to win by 100. That is the only thing about Pitino I miss. Certainly not in crucial late game adjustments as evidenced by his 1 win ('95 SEC Final vs Arkansas) in overtime games at UK against 8 or 9 losses, which included the '92 Elite Eight game vs the school we don't mention, '93 FF vs Michigan and '97 in the NCAA Championship to Arizona in his final game at UK.
 
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I’d have to say Pitino in that situation. Simply because of the full court press .
This. 4 min you may be able to
Play straight up but it has to be perfect. No buckets and you get 3 scores.

But the press and forcing tempo when the other team is in a timid time wasting mindset, lengthens the game and gives you more chances
 
This. 4 min you may be able to
Play straight up but it has to be perfect. No buckets and you get 3 scores.

But the press and forcing tempo when the other team is in a timid time wasting mindset, lengthens the game and gives you more chances
each coin has two sides
it also gives them more chances
 
each coin has two sides
it also gives them more chances
It does no doubt. But I’m of the opinion to try to take it in your own hands. You don’t have to play reckless, but play aggressive.

I’d rather both teams have more opportunities which means your margin of error is larger then have to hold a team from scoring 3 straight knowing I have to also score 3 straight. I’ll take my chances with more possessions knowing I need to be + 7 upon conclusion. Knowing that +7 w 7 total points scored is significantly less likely than +7 w 13 total scored. Extending the game is the most important thing bc even if they score you can quickly match them. You need 3 stops regardless whether it’s over 3 defensive possessions or 6+. If you’re unsuccessful then getting beat by 3 or it blowing open to 20 is still a loss and means the same thing to everyone but gamblers. I’ll go down swinging knowing the margin of error increases with the more possessions that are left.
 
It does no doubt. But I’m of the opinion to try to take it in your own hands. You don’t have to play reckless, but play aggressive.

I’d rather both teams have more opportunities which means your margin of error is larger then have to hold a team from scoring 3 straight knowing I have to also score 3 straight. I’ll take my chances with more possessions knowing I need to be + 7 upon conclusion. Knowing that +7 w 7 total points scored is significantly less likely than +7 w 13 total scored. Extending the game is the most important thing bc even if they score you can quickly match them. You need 3 stops regardless whether it’s over 3 defensive possessions or 6+. If you’re unsuccessful then getting beat by 3 or it blowing open to 20 is still a loss and means the same thing to everyone but gamblers. I’ll go down swinging knowing the margin of error increases with the more possessions that are left.
i guess it comes dow to whether or not you have the confidence in your team stopping them 1 possession out of 3 and your team scoring 1 possession out of 3
if you do not have that confidence then play helter skelter
 
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Okay, it's a trick question.

Just finished watching the last five minutes of this game. Nice memory from the recent past...(click on the "Watch on Youtube" link...)


Man, I forgot how THIN that team was in the backcourt.

One guard fouls out (James Young) and we're having to play Hawkins almost the whole way down the stretch.

Crazy, crazy thin depth.
 
Hawkins was crazy valuable off the bench. He saved our bacon a couple big games.

He was definitely valuable, had some big time moments!

But he would not have been the guy I would have wanted to have to count on down the stretch in the sweet sixteen haha.

Luckily, this year's team won't have that issue with Dillingham and Sheppard off the bench.
 
i guess it comes dow to whether or not you have the confidence in your team stopping them 1 possession out of 3 and your team scoring 1 possession out of 3
if you do not have that confidence then play helter skelter
Firstly, Appreciate the civil discussion.

If you’re down 7 you’d have to stop 3 out of 3 and score 3 out of 3 to come back from down 7 in 4 minutes giving an average of them milking 30 sec off the shotclock each possession. (Potentially 3 out of 4 since you’d likely be shooting mid shot clock).

It isn’t a confidence in your team thing. It’s a creating more possessions to get the percentage of perfect play on both ends needed down. It’s math/statistics. More possessions gives you more opportunity to come back. It’s why a team down by 10 at half time has a higher betting odds to win then a team down 10 with 10 minutes left or 10 with 5 minutes left. It’s all about how many possessions do they have on both ends left to create more possible outcomes. If there are only a total of 8 possessions (4 on each end) then the total combination of outcomes per possession is less than if their are 16 total possessions(8 on each end) which means there are more scenarios that result in you making up the deficit and then scoring once or you failing to score once doesn’t create a situation where you now have to play the fouling game and hope they miss free throws. Now if they have a shaq that’s going to shoot 50% from the line then maybe that’s a viable strategy but that’s putting it in their hands and hoping fate/luck helps you out vs you playing a strategy in the final 4 minutes that statistically gives you more chances…and you can still foul the final minute if needed.

Now if it was me….I probably play that first possession straight up and if I get a stop and score and I’m now down 5 with 3 min I play 1 more possession straight up. But the second they score and you’re still down 7 w 3 min or 5-7 w 2 minutes you have to create more possessions.
 
Tubby hands down
Worst coach to ever coach UK and you want him coaching to win? Or are you betting against UK in that situation with Tubby coaching? That's the smart bet. Never won anything before UK, was handed a title by Pitino, never won anything after that.
 
Man, I forgot how THIN that team was in the backcourt.

One guard fouls out (James Young) and we're having to play Hawkins almost the whole way down the stretch.

Crazy, crazy thin depth.

I think Young fouling out saved Cal from himself. Young was getting bullied by Hancock all game, Cal stayed with him and it never really paid off. Cal had to put Poythress in down the stretch and he made several key plays on both ends including shutting handcock completely down the rest of the way.
 
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I would want Tubby coaching because he would know how to manage the situation by subbing the right players in on offense and defense and also which players on the other team to send to the line. He would also know which players on the other team already had fouls on them and could be attacked because they did not want to foul out. Bottom line is Tubby would know what was going on because he always paid attention to the entire game and planed accordingly.
 
You are delusional
Did
Worst coach to ever coach UK and you want him coaching to win? Or are you betting against UK in that situation with Tubby coaching? That's the smart bet. Never won anything before UK, was handed a title by Pitino, never won anything after that.
Did Pitino win with those players as you say in 1997, Ill wait..
 
Eddie Sutton's teams were really good in late game situations. Especially at Oklahoma State. They did three things that are important in maintaining leads or making comebacks:
1) They put the ball inside. This led to FT's
2) They ran a passing game /motion offense. This allowed them to play fast or slow without a lot of adjustment
3) His teams were solid on defense. Nothing more important to making a comeback or holding a lead than getting defensive stops.

If it is important enough to do in the last few minutes of a tight game, then it is probably a good idea to do it the whole game.
 
It does no doubt. But I’m of the opinion to try to take it in your own hands. You don’t have to play reckless, but play aggressive.

I’d rather both teams have more opportunities which means your margin of error is larger then have to hold a team from scoring 3 straight knowing I have to also score 3 straight. I’ll take my chances with more possessions knowing I need to be + 7 upon conclusion. Knowing that +7 w 7 total points scored is significantly less likely than +7 w 13 total scored. Extending the game is the most important thing bc even if they score you can quickly match them. You need 3 stops regardless whether it’s over 3 defensive possessions or 6+. If you’re unsuccessful then getting beat by 3 or it blowing open to 20 is still a loss and means the same thing to everyone but gamblers. I’ll go down swinging knowing the margin of error increases with the more possessions that are left.
I agree. Especially true in the high school game with no shot clock. High school coaches have to start rolling the dice much earlier and often than the college coach with a shot clock.
 
Not that I agree with analytics all the time, but numbers suggest that is the correct way to play by limiting the chances of a team coming back. The thing is even if you win those games it isn't quite as "entertaining" to watch thus they are not as memorable. However if you do lose then everyone remembers. Especially if it's the last game that ends your season.

As I said I don't necessarily agree with this strategy, but the numbers usually pan out. I'm of the thinking if you're the better team (which if you build a lead you should say you are) you continue to play the way that got you the lead. Now in certain situations, losing a player to an injury or foul trouble changes my thinking a little.

The big difference in Calipari and Pitino philosophies is Cal usually doesn't want to embarrass another team (especially most of the conference teams) where Pitino would love to win by 100. That is the only thing about Pitino I miss. Certainly not in crucial late game adjustments as evidenced by his 1 win ('95 SEC Final vs Arkansas) in overtime games at UK against 8 or 9 losses, which included the '92 Elite Eight game vs the school we don't mention, '93 FF vs Michigan and '97 in the NCAA Championship to Arizona in his final game at UK.
You just claimed number support that theory then didn't post any links or numbers. Bravo.
 
It’s funny how you Cal guys give Cal all the credit when Kentucky wins, but the players get the blame in the losses.

Apparently Cal made those clutch shots, not Aaron.
I guess Andrew was the one that decided to take the air out of the ball in 2015.
I guess Oscar is to blame for the Saint Peters loss.
Must have been John Wall's fault that everyone kept taking threes.

The coach has to put his guys in a position to win. When you have a new team every year and your players are young, you made your job harder, NBA potential or not. We can honestly say that Cal has had his great coaching moments, but he's also had more than his fair share of really stupid coaching moments.

The Cal we had from 09-17, was really good in crunch time, the Cal we have seen since, sucks in crunch time.
 
Okay, it's a trick question.

Just finished watching the last five minutes of this game. Nice memory from the recent past - Kentucky, under Calipari, down 7 to Pitino's Louisville team in the Sweet 16, outplay them down the stretch for a huge win... ...(click on the "Watch on Youtube" link...)

There's also these ones:

-Up 9 with two minutes to go in 2008, and loses.
-Down 1 with the ball and under 15 seconds to go in 2011, and loses.
-Down 2 with the ball and under 10 seconds to go in 2013, and loses.
-Scores 4 points over the last 5 minutes of a national title game in 2014.
-Scores 4 points over the last 4 1/2 minutes of a Final Four game in 2015.
- Comes back after being down 7 with a few minutes left, ties the game, but loses on a buzzer beater in 2017.
- Scores 6 points over the last 5 minutes in a 2018 tourney loss.
- Up 2 with 30 seconds left in 2019 and loses in OT.


Maybe you should hold off on glorifying Calipari until he actually does something again. We're going on potentially 9 straight years without a Final Four (8 if you don't count the COVID season).
 
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Pitino comes to mind. Cal might be OK if he’s down 7, but up 7 with 4 min to go, he shuts the team down.
Cal does seem to coach bettter from behind sometimes. Unless it's like 15 down then hes lost. But if it's like 5-6? He's not horrid.

Like you said, it's when he's up 5-6 with less than 7 to go I get worried.
 
There's also these ones:

-Up 9 with two minutes to go in 2008, and loses.
-Down 1 with the ball and under 15 seconds to go in 2011, and loses.
-Down 2 with the ball and under 10 seconds to go in 2013, and loses.
-Scores 4 points over the last 5 minutes of a national title game in 2014.
-Scores 4 points over the last 4 1/2 minutes of a Final Four game in 2015.
- Comes back after being down 7 with a few minutes left, ties the game, but loses on a buzzer beater in 2017.
- Scores 6 points over the last 5 minutes in a 2018 tourney loss.
- Up 2 with 30 seconds left in 2019 and loses in OT.


Maybe you should hold off on glorifying Calipari until he actually does something again. We're going on potentially 9 straight years without a Final Four (8 if you don't count the COVID season).
MdWIldcat55:
"Yeah, but the players lost those games, not Cal, not his fault"
 
There's also these ones:

-Up 9 with two minutes to go in 2008, and loses.
-Down 1 with the ball and under 15 seconds to go in 2011, and loses.
-Down 2 with the ball and under 10 seconds to go in 2013, and loses.
-Scores 4 points over the last 5 minutes of a national title game in 2014.
-Scores 4 points over the last 4 1/2 minutes of a Final Four game in 2015.
- Comes back after being down 7 with a few minutes left, ties the game, but loses on a buzzer beater in 2017.
- Scores 6 points over the last 5 minutes in a 2018 tourney loss.
- Up 2 with 30 seconds left in 2019 and loses in OT.


Maybe you should hold off on glorifying Calipari until he actually does something again. We're going on potentially 9 straight years without a Final Four (8 if you don't count the COVID season).

I don't blame those last seconds ones on him nearly as much as say 2014 and part of 2015.

Buzzer beaters happen so can't be too grumpy at 2017 (and that was the year of the major screwing) and UNC wasn't a bad team. So, I'm more pissed at the NCAA and Rooferee on that one.

The last two on yeah. That's more on him for sure. Especially the 2018 loss (FTs!) and the choke to St Peters.
 
Izzo. He makes us look like pee wee league players late in games after time outs.
 
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