I’ve seen parts of this argument in various places, but never all of it together.
Here's my thesis: based on what we knew in 2019, Cal’s contract made a ton of sense, as long as we were willing to overlook that Cal and Kentucky have never had the same priorities. It blew up on us because the different priorities stopped complementing each other.
Cal was the best coach for the one-and-done era of college basketball. His priorities aligned with the best way to win in college basketball for that era. And in 2019, we went all in on him, not knowing that college basketball was about to radically change. It's not about playing style. It's not about stubbornness. It's about priorities. They happened to align in 2019. They don't now.
The one-and-done era lasted 13 seasons. It started with Kevin Durant in 2006-07. It ended with Zion Williamson in 2019. The transfer portal and the extra COVID year killed the one-and-done model. This isn’t just about assembling a more mature team. Even on an individual basis, the young kids coming in aren’t able to immediately have the impact they could for that short era. We’re back to pre-2006, when upperclassmen reigned.
Look to first-team All-Americans for proof. From 1990 to 2006 (17 seasons), there were zero freshmen on those teams. They were 78% upperclassmen. Nearly half were seniors.
Compare that to the one-and-done era. From 2007 to 2019 (13 seasons), there were 16 freshmen on those teams. There were more seasons without a senior All-American than without a freshman. College basketball had never before had a freshman as Player of the Year. During that era, three freshmen took that award (Durant, AD, Zion).
Now compare that to the post-one-and-done-era. From 2020 through this season (5 seasons), there has only been one freshman first-team All-American. They’ve been 84% upperclassmen. Over half have been seniors or graduates. Upperclassmen have been more dominant in the past five years than in the pre-one-and-done era.
Cal’s priorities and fans’ priorities are the same now as they’ve always been. But they used to complement each other. Now they don’t. Fans’ top priorities, in order: win NCAA tournament games, win SEC tournament and rivalry games, win at Rupp. Cal’s top priorities: NBA draft picks and La Familia. From 2007 to 2019, the best way to win in college basketball was with young future NBA draft picks, so fans and Cal were all happy. But now the priorities diverge.
The problem isn’t Cal’s stubbornness to stop with the one-and-done strategy—as if he's just refusing to play zone. The problem is that one-and-done is a key part of him achieving his ultimate aims (La Familia), but it's become an obstacle to fans' aims (winning now). The problem is that Cal has always had different priorities than the fans. Now it shows, and neither is willing to shift their priorities.
Cal was here for 10 of the 13 years in the one-and-done era.
Through that stretch, he got us:
• 1 championship
• 1 runner-up
• 4 Final Fours
• 7 Elite Eights
Then we signed him to the lifetime contract in 2019, not realizing COVID + transfer portal were about to bring an end to the era. We locked in to the best coach of the one-and-done era right as it was ending. If there was a mistake then, it wasn’t about locking in the person we had reason to believe would win the most in the next decade. The problem was locking in to someone we knew had a different set of priorities than our fanbase.
Here's my thesis: based on what we knew in 2019, Cal’s contract made a ton of sense, as long as we were willing to overlook that Cal and Kentucky have never had the same priorities. It blew up on us because the different priorities stopped complementing each other.
Cal was the best coach for the one-and-done era of college basketball. His priorities aligned with the best way to win in college basketball for that era. And in 2019, we went all in on him, not knowing that college basketball was about to radically change. It's not about playing style. It's not about stubbornness. It's about priorities. They happened to align in 2019. They don't now.
The one-and-done era lasted 13 seasons. It started with Kevin Durant in 2006-07. It ended with Zion Williamson in 2019. The transfer portal and the extra COVID year killed the one-and-done model. This isn’t just about assembling a more mature team. Even on an individual basis, the young kids coming in aren’t able to immediately have the impact they could for that short era. We’re back to pre-2006, when upperclassmen reigned.
Look to first-team All-Americans for proof. From 1990 to 2006 (17 seasons), there were zero freshmen on those teams. They were 78% upperclassmen. Nearly half were seniors.
Compare that to the one-and-done era. From 2007 to 2019 (13 seasons), there were 16 freshmen on those teams. There were more seasons without a senior All-American than without a freshman. College basketball had never before had a freshman as Player of the Year. During that era, three freshmen took that award (Durant, AD, Zion).
Now compare that to the post-one-and-done-era. From 2020 through this season (5 seasons), there has only been one freshman first-team All-American. They’ve been 84% upperclassmen. Over half have been seniors or graduates. Upperclassmen have been more dominant in the past five years than in the pre-one-and-done era.
Cal’s priorities and fans’ priorities are the same now as they’ve always been. But they used to complement each other. Now they don’t. Fans’ top priorities, in order: win NCAA tournament games, win SEC tournament and rivalry games, win at Rupp. Cal’s top priorities: NBA draft picks and La Familia. From 2007 to 2019, the best way to win in college basketball was with young future NBA draft picks, so fans and Cal were all happy. But now the priorities diverge.
The problem isn’t Cal’s stubbornness to stop with the one-and-done strategy—as if he's just refusing to play zone. The problem is that one-and-done is a key part of him achieving his ultimate aims (La Familia), but it's become an obstacle to fans' aims (winning now). The problem is that Cal has always had different priorities than the fans. Now it shows, and neither is willing to shift their priorities.
Cal was here for 10 of the 13 years in the one-and-done era.
Through that stretch, he got us:
• 1 championship
• 1 runner-up
• 4 Final Fours
• 7 Elite Eights
Then we signed him to the lifetime contract in 2019, not realizing COVID + transfer portal were about to bring an end to the era. We locked in to the best coach of the one-and-done era right as it was ending. If there was a mistake then, it wasn’t about locking in the person we had reason to believe would win the most in the next decade. The problem was locking in to someone we knew had a different set of priorities than our fanbase.
