Does this team have what it needs to win it all?

[storm1507]

I think we are one of a dozen or so that has a decent chance of winning it all. But it sure is tough to win 6 in a row no matter how good or favored a team is going into the tourney. Get/keep everyone healthy, improve the D somewhat, no drama, and a little luck........................................

 

[The_Answer1313]

Currently 73/351 in rankings so inside top 25%. Tied for 14th among what I'd call Power 6 conferences (include Big East).

So we are certainly well above average.

Depends on what you are looking at.

3PA/FGA = 37.7%. NCAA Average is 37.4% Ranked 171th. Dead average.

Of course we'll take more TOTAL threes because we play at a fast tempo and take more shots overall but as a % of the type of shots we take, we don't take any more than the average NCAA team.

 

[HagginHall1999]

Depends on what you are looking at.

3PA/FGA = 37.7%. NCAA Average is 37.4% Ranked 171th. Dead average.

Of course we'll take more TOTAL threes because we play at a fast tempo and take more shots overall but as a % of the type of shots we take, we don't take any more than the average NCAA team.

Fair enough

 

[The_Answer1313]

Which is fine I guess. I mean looking at our averages we shoot 40% from 3 and about 56% from 2.

Shooting 40% from 3 is the same as shooting 60% from 2.

One could probably make an argument we should shoot more threes slightly. I think we got the balance good for the team we have IMO.

It's wild sometimes you look at these team pages and you have teams that shoot terrible from 3 yet take a bunch of them or they shoot really good from 3 but seemingly don't want to take them lol. Teams basically shooting themselves in the foot with poor shot selection.

 

[gharding07]

Since the beginning of Kenpom, there has never been a team outside of these rankings to win it all:
Efficiency: top 25
AdjOffense: top 37
AdjDefense: top 38
Strength of Schedule: top 45

Right now we are good in the top 2 catagories, the bottom two we need work. We're #47 in defense, and #117 in SOS! Doesnt mean we cant make the final 4, but to win it all we have to get within those parameters. Or be the first outlier in the data. I'll post the link to the video. Last season only 7 teams met this criteria and UConn, which was one of them, won it.

 

[jrpross]

They’re 12-2 and the 2 losses they were right in it til the end. As things stand now, we absolutely have a shot, but I wouldn’t say it’s a great one. We have 4 incredible guards and even one or two are having an off night, the others have been picking up the slack. And Mitchell has been an incredibly steadying force. He raises this team’s floor. But as others have stated, the defense definitely needs work and the rebounding has been OK at best.

I feel like there are a few things that could happen to give this team a better chance. If Edwards starts putting things together or if Adou comes back healthy and Cal finally gives more of Edwards’ minutes to him; or if Bradshaw is able to fully shake off the cobwebs and be a more reliable rim protector and offensive threat, I think they’re one of the 5 or so most likely teams to cut down the nets.

 

[UKAlum84]

We do not have oscar, though he is missed there are different dynamics going on out there on the court without him. Our best chance of making a run involves the guard play. These guys can be gritty and make plays, the million dollar question is: Will UK stop playing "control the clock" and just win games by double digits from here on out...

 

[The_Answer1313]

It's a give and take right. So with Oscar, we were 1st in Offensive Rebounding%. This year we are 245th.

The flipside to this is, it's a much better shooting team and a much better team at taking care of the ball. Here's the difference in ranking between 23 and 24.

Effective FG% = 2023 - 178th vs 2024 - 11th
Turnover % = 2023 - 127th vs 2024 - 4th
Rebounding% = 2023 - 1st vs 2024 - 245th
FTR = 2023 - 162nd vs 2024 - 238th

All of this boils down to the 17th best offense in 2023 and currently the 9th best in 2024.

 

[ukjenning44]

Why are you taking our discussion to an entirely different sport? I never said defense doesn't win championships in FB. I said it in Basketball. In skill sports, you better have offensive firepower if you want to win championships. You have to make shots and avoid those long lulls of not scoring and need a bunch of playmakers/scorers.

Still think we don’t need defense there hoss?

 

[rolaid]

No - we are poorly Coached on defense - and our 2 best offensive players cannot play fundamental or disciplined basketball

 

[bigbluedon]

Won’t win. Can’t guard anybody. Cal really needs to practice and try some zone just to throw teams off for a while.

 

[kats23]

Games likes today are why I don’t think we’ll make it past the 2nd weekend. Defensively we’re bad, we’re very young, and the guys you should be relying on in crunch time (Mitchell & Reeves) disappear or fold under the pressure.

One thing I noticed late in the game is all
The freshman wanted to be the man down the stretch which led to bad passes and bad shots. Maybe that improves as the season goes on but it’s hard to believe in this team for 6 games in March when it is going to be tight ballgames and you’ll need stops and made shots.

 

[RunninRichie]

Charlie brown and the football again it seems like. Defense and rebounding have got to be fixed. It looks like our defense is regressing.

 

[ralphdaltonfan]

Still think we don’t need defense there hoss?

Didn't say you didn't need defense. Just said in the sport of basketball it doesn't win championships. Scoring does. It's been that way for a while and if you can't see it, you are blind. If defense won, then Houston would win the title every season. Teams like UVA would win every year--limiting possessions and playing to low scores.

You can't score, you have 0 chance to win a NC. Why did Texas A&M win today? They made 3 pt shots. They made shots they were missing all year. If you want to project that all of those shots they were missing leading into today were contested/defended you are lying.

 

[JonathanW]

I think we don’t know yet. Why? We’ve only played 1 and 1/2 games with all our guys. (That’s assuming Z never plays)
What did we do in that game and a half? Beat top 10 UNC on neutral court, trailing for less than 30 seconds. And we were up on UL by 20 at halftime.

 

[KyCPA]

Do you think they have all the pieces for a deep run? Offense is obviously great and defense needs work but let’s say they continue to play like they have, are they good enough to win the championship?

Not without much better team defense.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

With our youth lack of rebounding and defense and a poor X’s and O’s Coach I like our chances

 

[TNCatfanforever]

Do you think they have all the pieces for a deep run? Offense is obviously great and defense needs work but let’s say they continue to play like they have, are they good enough to win the championship?

Round of 16 is ceiling if they don’t learn to guard

 

[Mash 2.4]

We need Thiero back. And Cal needs to roll with a primary lineup of Wagner, Reeves, Shepherd, Thiero and Mitchell. With Dillingham getting major minutes off the bench and Edwards, Bradshaw, Ugo filling in as needed. That team can hang with anybody. And none of this will ever happen because Cal still thinks he needs a 7 footer on the floor at all times and he’s gonna favor Edwards over Thiero costing us at least 2 seed lines.

 

[jwphelps]

Do you think they have all the pieces for a deep run? Offense is obviously great and defense needs work but let’s say they continue to play like they have, are they good enough to win the championship?

Several teams can win it all this year, and all of these teams have weaknesses. So it will depend, on can we fix or overcome those weaknesses or then it comes down to match ups, do we draw a team that can exploit those weaknesses or not.

 

[Smashcat]

I don't know if UK detractors Goodman and Gottlieb thinking we can get to a FF is a good thing or bad thing. lol

 

[TFCats11]

Absolutely, 100% they do! Their only two weaknesses, and one of them is completely fixable, is defense and the HC slowing down the game with a nice lead.