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Does the snow storm disprove climate change?

Now is a runaway greenhouse effect a possibility? Maybe, but probably not.

Runaway Methane Global Warming

Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas that remains in the atmosphere for approximately 9-15 years. Methane is over 20 times more effective in trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide (CO2) over a 100-year period and is emitted from a variety of natural and human-influenced sources. Human-influenced sources include landfills, natural gas and petroleum systems, agricultural activities, coal mining, stationary and mobile combustion, wastewater treatment, and certain industrial process. (reference)

There are enormous quantities of naturally occurring greenhouse gasses trapped in ice-like structures in the cold northern mud and at the bottom of the seas. These ice structures, called clathrates, contain 3,000 times as much methane as is in the atmosphere. Now here's the scary part. A temperature increase of merely a few degrees would cause these gases to volatilize and 'burp' into the atmosphere, which would further raise temperatures, which would release yet more methane, heating the Earth and seas further, and so on. There are 400 gigatons of methane locked in the frozen arctic tundra, enough to start this chain reaction, and the kind of warming the Arctic Council predicts is sufficient to melt the clathrates and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.(reference)

Once triggered, this cycle could result in runaway global warming worse than the most pessimistic scenario. Strong geologic evidence suggests something similar has happened at least twice before. The most recent of these catastrophes occurred about 55 million years ago in what geologists call the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, when methane burps caused rapid warming and massive die-offs, disrupting the climate for more than 100,000 years.

The granddaddy of these catastrophes occurred 251 million years ago, at the end of the Permian period, when a series of methane burps came close to wiping out all life on Earth. More than 94% of the marine species present in the fossil record disappeared suddenly as oxygen levels plummeted and life teetered on the verge of extinction. Over the ensuing 500,000 years, a few species struggled to gain a foothold in the hostile environment. It took 20 million to 30 million years for even rudimentary coral reefs to re-establish themselves and for forests to grow again. In some areas, it took more than 100 million years for ecosystems to reach their former healthy diversity.

http://www.corrosion-doctors.org/Global-Warming/Methane.htm
 
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I don't think it's fair to call you naive or you allow people to think for you, but that's what you're doing.
The people that manipulate data do care whose politics they serve, that's the whole point.

You are projecting...

Poor ethics happens from time to time in any scientific research, it's not that remarkable that some UK researchers were unethical. I'm pretty sure British conservative parties aren't climate deniers anyway.


There's an MIT climate scientist however named Kerry Emanuel who lobbies the Republican party to adopt a more reasonable stance on climate, and he was rewarded by death threats for his naive efforts. Somehow the data was so persuasive that it managed to convince him that the pinko librul data should serve the Republcian agenda.
 
So who was giving him death threats, or since he's an MIT graduate he is above exaggerating? That's one of the problems here, you see MIT or any respected University and assume the person is reputable and above the board. It's no different than someone saying a preacher or priest is above being shady.

Just look at how they go about taking measurements today compared to 1880. There is absolutely no comparison of b accuracy or number of stations. So how do they use that year as a start? Nunbers have to be manipulated simply due to the lack of measurements then.

Hell even today large parts of South America are just assumed.
Last year was the hottest year by .02 degrees, yet the margin of error is .08? Do you know what margin of error means?

We should definitely be responsible tenants of the land, no one is saying we shouldn't. But simply taxing and throwing money at a problem isn't how you do something, that's how corruption takes hold. If you want to actually do something about the environment take a 30 gallon garbage bag and pick trash up on the side of the road, you would see immediate impact.
Obama signed the climate agreement with China, we start curtailing Co2 now, but they don't for what 20 years? That has to be the worst bit of negotiating a sitting President has ever been involved in, there is zero chance China does squat. The US sure as hell will though, and that only entices companies to move to China. Brilliant!

Look at China's air quality, you could toke from a Ford F-150 exhaust and get cleaner air, They don't give a shit about emissions.
 
So, did any of you guys go do some research today?

You know, if the temperature record hadn't been adjusted, and in some cases fabricated entirely, a lot of people would have a different view of this situation. I would too if everything was on the up and up. I love science.
 
So who was giving him death threats, or since he's an MIT graduate he is above exaggerating? That's one of the problems here, you see MIT or any respected University and assume the person is reputable and above the board. It's no different than someone saying a preacher or priest is above being shady.

Just look at how they go about taking measurements today compared to 1880. There is absolutely no comparison of b accuracy or number of stations. So how do they use that year as a start? Nunbers have to be manipulated simply due to the lack of measurements then.

Hell even today large parts of South America are just assumed.
Last year was the hottest year by .02 degrees, yet the margin of error is .08? Do you know what margin of error means?

We should definitely be responsible tenants of the land, no one is saying we shouldn't. But simply taxing and throwing money at a problem isn't how you do something, that's how corruption takes hold. If you want to actually do something about the environment take a 30 gallon garbage bag and pick trash up on the side of the road, you would see immediate impact.
Obama signed the climate agreement with China, we start curtailing Co2 now, but they don't for what 20 years? That has to be the worst bit of negotiating a sitting President has ever been involved in, there is zero chance China does squat. The US sure as hell will though, and that only entices companies to move to China. Brilliant!

Look at China's air quality, you could toke from a Ford F-150 exhaust and get cleaner air, They don't give a shit about emissions.

You correctly state that "[w]e should definitely be responsible tenants of the land, no one is saying we shouldn't." But, ironically, you argue against things that no one is advocating (bolded). No one's saying an MIT grad is above exaggerating. No one's saying (or assuming) that certain people or institutions are necessarily above board. No one is saying to just tax and throw money at the problem. No one is saying we can't also clean up trash by the side of the road. No one is saying China has good air quality. Literally no one is saying (or implying) those things.

Are death threats okay if someone exaggerates? Certainly that's not your position, so why even bring it up? Not sure what you were going for there.

You know who certainly knows what margin of error means? The NOAA. And scientists. "Arndt, Jan. 21: This may seem pedantic, but it’s an important point: there is a warmest year on record. One of the 135 years in that history is the warmest. 2014 is clearly, and by a very large margin, the most likely warmest year. Not only is its central estimate relatively distant from (warmer than) the prior record, but even accounting for known uncertainties, and their known shapes, it still emerges as easily the most likely warmest year on record."

That's why they (those liberal, data manipulating whores, er, scientists) say things like "likely," but apparently this type of accurate assessment scares ymmot31, so be careful - it's almost his bedtime.

What does China's current air quality have to do with what they've pledged to do in the future? Did they have any agreements to curtail emissions in the 1970s/80s/90s/00s? Terrible air quality is a stomp on the pedal of cleaning up emissions, is it not? Worked that way in the US and most other countries of the world. Pollution becomes a problem, then comes the Clean Air Act. Even if it weren't, it's not necessarily predictive of what they will do in the future. I didn't have a job in law school. My income was pretty low. Then I had a job offer to start work after graduation. So in the summer before I started, would you say that my then current income was predictive of my future income? Of course not.

Skeptics like to throw out the China/India card, fatalistically claiming that unless China and India are on board nothing the US does matters. But then they're on board and the same people are like "no way it happens." Even though China (and the US) now have some assurances that there won't be a free rider or tragedy of the commons or prisoner's dilemma issue, it doesn't matter because they just won't do it. Cool story, I guess.

"[Z]ero chance they do squat," as in they will absolutely do absolutely nothing? With their worse than "Ford F-150 exhaust" air quality? Surely, sir, you exaggerate. Or are you an MIT graduate?
 
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Right smack dab in the middle of the assessment it says most likely, does that not bother you in the least bit? We keep hearing settled science but they can't settle on whether last year was the hottest or not!?

Death threats aren't ever warranted, but simply posting someone's name and saying they received death threats while trying to make a point is absurd, that was my point.

Do you think the agreement on the climate has any teeth? Do you honestly believe China has any intent on honoring that agreement? Was it in the best interest of the United States, of the 2 nations which benefitted the most?

So how do they take into account unknowns in temp? Would you say that it is MOST LIKELY they are not correct in years past assumptions? And how could you prove if they were?
 
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The point was that he was at least American and presumably more apt to be corrupted by American politics than someone in the UK. It is absurd yes, further illustrated by what happened to him for the sole reason he had the audacity to be a conservative climate scientist not employed by the cato institute. There are others too incidentally, science is not monopolized by liberals and not all scientists are corrupt, naive "ignorant sluts".

It is clear to me though by this "most likely", "fath in science", "miniscule ppm", "margin of error" and else that I am engaging a bunch of Ben Carson wannabees. That is a waste of my time so I guess I'll just leave it with no, the scientific estimations made from ice core samples, a "most likely" and the word theory don't bother me personally no. Science doesn't bother me, and it's not something you should fear.

It is a real shame this issue was politicized so heavily.
 
My thought process has no basis on politics, climate change has been turned into the same thing abortion and gun control has, something to draw the attention of the masses and drive voters to the polls, that's it.

I don't fear science, I fear people especially when billions of dollars are in play. When policies are being made that are putting people out of work, putting the nation at a disadvantage to the next superpower I need more than theories and greater goods.

When people can't take a step back, and actually look at the big picture I get a little concerned.
 
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All good, bu that is neither here nor there. This thread is about whether or not it exists, not what should be done about it. It's not about China, nor is it about Al Gore, any more than it is about abortion or gun control.

Because you disagree with what should be done about it politically, you (general plural) conclude that it must not exist. That is asinine. It is becoming exceedingly less and less probable that the current warming is not significantly effected by our actions; until there is scientific evidence to the contrary the most prudent action would be to try to do something about it. Someone who doesn't fear science would be willing to change perspective should that occur in spite of whatever political ideology may be clouding their judgment. That is why the MIT scientist should be commended, not ostracized or worse. He has recognized that your minds are dug in and aren't changing until your political leaders have come to the conclusion that is better to not ignore the science.
 
You'll either pay them for energy, or pay them for the equipment that harnesses the energy.

No doubt. But there's better chances at a competitve market in the second option, which would theoretically drive down costs.

There are already low tech and what I would call mid tech ways of interior climate control. The efficiency of electrical devices and appliances is improving every year. But you can't plop a ****ing ball home at the end of some arbitrarily placed cul-de-sac and get those passive benefits.
 
The point was that he was at least American and presumably more apt to be corrupted by American politics than someone in the UK. It is absurd yes, further illustrated by what happened to him for the sole reason he had the audacity to be a conservative climate scientist not employed by the cato institute. There are others too incidentally, science is not monopolized by liberals and not all scientists are corrupt, naive "ignorant sluts".

It is clear to me though by this "most likely", "fath in science", "miniscule ppm", "margin of error" and else that I am engaging a bunch of Ben Carson wannabees. That is a waste of my time so I guess I'll just leave it with no, the scientific estimations made from ice core samples, a "most likely" and the word theory don't bother me personally no. Science doesn't bother me, and it's not something you should fear.

It is a real shame this issue was politicized so heavily.

I posted this on page 3, perhaps you missed it. Can you read this and see how someone could think there just might be some guesswork involved in the "settled science'?

This is taken from RealClimate...

What does the lag of CO2 behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming?
Filed under:
— group @ 3 December 2004 - ()
This is an issue that is often misunderstood in the public sphere and media, so it is worth spending some time to explain it and clarify it. At least three careful ice core studies have shown that CO2 starts to rise about 800 years (600-1000 years) after Antarctic temperature during glacial terminations. These terminations are pronounced warming periods that mark the ends of the ice ages that happen every 100,000 years or so.

Does this prove that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming? The answer is no.


The reason has to do with the fact that the warmings take about 5000 years to be complete. The lag is only 800 years. All that the lag shows is that CO2 did not cause the first 800 years of warming, out of the 5000 year trend. The other 4200 years of warming could in fact have been caused by CO2, as far as we can tell from this ice core data.

The 4200 years of warming make up about 5/6 of the total warming. So CO2 could have caused the last 5/6 of the warming, but could not have caused the first 1/6 of the warming.



It is totally mind boggling to me how you can say things like "it's political" when someone disputes AGW, yet at the same time gloss over the political nature of those that are pushing the agenda. The science can be pure. The scientist can come to the conclusion that man is the sole reason there has been any appreciable warming. Every scientist that studies AGW does not take his own ice cores or his own temperatures. It's a garbage in garbage out scenario.

Data has been manipulated (adjusted) and in the most egregious cases, fabricated, to prove the point. How can anyone spout off about science if they know this to be true?
 
IMO, the motive behind proposed climate change legislation has nothing to do with science, climate, or saving the planet. It's about money.
 
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Huckabee has offered to take Trump's place in the debate tonight. I say let him, along with including Paul, Santorum, and Fiorina.
 
I never said it doesn't exist, in fact I've stated just the opposite. You're the one making assumptions that my political leaning plays a part in it, it doesn't.
 
Right smack dab in the middle of the assessment it says most likely, does that not bother you in the least bit? We keep hearing settled science but they can't settle on whether last year was the hottest or not!?

Death threats aren't ever warranted, but simply posting someone's name and saying they received death threats while trying to make a point is absurd, that was my point.

Do you think the agreement on the climate has any teeth? Do you honestly believe China has any intent on honoring that agreement? Was it in the best interest of the United States, of the 2 nations which benefitted the most?

So how do they take into account unknowns in temp? Would you say that it is MOST LIKELY they are not correct in years past assumptions? And how could you prove if they were?

Most likely does not scare me in the least. If you don't understand why, then you don't understand the science involved. Sorry, just not going to waste my time trying to explain how this stuff works to those unwilling or unable to use the Internet to educate themselves. We're past that point, it's 2016. Here's something further down the link that you probably didn't read:

"Even with the “more unlikely than likely” designation, that 48 percent number means that 2014 was far more likely — more than 2.5 times as likely — than 2010 to be the warmest year ever recorded. NASA is slightly less confident, but 2014 still ranks as more likely than any other year to have had the highest global average temperature. While NOAA can only say that 2014 has a 48 percent chance of being the warmest recorded, it has far more confidence that 2014 was one of the 10 hottest on record — a 99.2 percent level of confidence, to be exact, which qualifies as “almost certain.”"

Now, whether 2014 was the warmest year on record or not quite makes little actual difference to whether the long term trend of warming is happening. It's headline fodder, which is why the link I attached (again, read it) criticized Obama for saying 2014 was the warmest year on record without any qualification. Seriously.

Most international agreements have few, if any, teeth. Doesn't make them completely worthless. China has a myriad of reasons to comply, not the least of which is their terrible environment that you think weighs on the other end of the scale. Don't worry, I'm sure the Bill Derrington of China is saying the same thing about the US. In fact, there are probably 3 Bill Derringtons in China saying that.

If you want to know how the science works, look it up. There's probably hundreds of sites that answer, in minute detail, all of that stuff.

My thought process has no basis on politics, climate change has been turned into the same thing abortion and gun control has, something to draw the attention of the masses and drive voters to the polls, that's it.

I don't fear science, I fear people especially when billions of dollars are in play. When policies are being made that are putting people out of work, putting the nation at a disadvantage to the next superpower I need more than theories and greater goods.

When people can't take a step back, and actually look at the big picture I get a little concerned.

Billions (or trillions, really) of dollars are at play in the energy markets whether global warming is real or not, or whether it was ever even brought up. If you don't realize that, then maybe step back. There are externalities for every possible outcome.

I think people really just assume the status quo is right, and that all externalities are already accounted for. They're not. Markets are only as good as their inputs. Think lead additives to gasoline. Initially unregulated, and the harm they caused was not factored into the price. Against vigorous industry lobbying, we eventually figure out that the lead additives are causing enormous damage. So lead was phased out, which cost jobs and money. But the status quo was that the market was not working because the inputs were bad - the cost of the damage from lead was not factored into the price. The price (of adding lead to gasoline and the resultant benefits) was artificially low because the externality - brain damaged children, primarily - was not paid for by the market actors. It was paid for by those families and society at large.

So if you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, realize that the status quo is not always right. Markets are often wrong because markets rely on inputs.
 
Nah, the Bill Derington in China has no idea about the agreement, and if he did happen to know he would have no avenue to voice displeasure.

I understand science, but probability is one thing, voicing in absolutes is another and thats where I have an issue.

My concern isn't the status quo, its giving even more power to the Govt, and when you start taxing companies and causing electricity prices on possibilities it causes the average American to acquire more dependence on the Govt, kinda like the chinese me.

When global warming really took off we were in the middle of several years of US Hurricane impacts, remember when that was the new norm due to global warming? Only it wasn't it was cyclical. We were also in a stretch where the average monthly temp per state hadn't been below average in something like 5 years. That was also the new norm, only it wasn't, roughly 4 years ago that changed as well, cyclical.

Droughts-climate change
Floods - climate change
Hurricanes- climate change
lack of hurricanes-climate change
heatwaves-climate change
Too much snow-climate change
not enough snow-climate change
forest fires-climate change

I'm sure I'm leaving something out, but you get the picture, climate change is real it does happen, but it isn't any different than it's ever been we're just more attentive to it now, so we notice EVERY little thing thats out of the ordinary.
 
No doubt. But there's better chances at a competitve market in the second option, which would theoretically drive down costs.

There are already low tech and what I would call mid tech ways of interior climate control. The efficiency of electrical devices and appliances is improving every year. But you can't plop a ****ing ball home at the end of some arbitrarily placed cul-de-sac and get those passive benefits.
Yeah, but your average Joe can't even afford a Ball home. They are renting a very poorly constructed apartment in most cases, or live in an older home with dated methods of insulation and drafty windows.
 
"While it is true that total precipitation change is controlled by average global temperature change, which, in turn, is largely based on greenhouse gas emissions, our research shows that aerosols have significantly impacted the distribution of precipitation change around the world since preindustrial times," says Chien Wang, a senior research scientist at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and the MIT Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-01-human-made-aerosols-exert-strong-geography.html
 
Z, I never said they did.
So then in what way is your harping on temperature instrumentation contributing to the debate other than yet another red herring that has to be beaten down before we can get back to the central issue?

Something is causing CO2 levels to spike upwards to levels no human has ever lived under. The fact that this increase is tied directly to our industrial revolution is compelling. Higher than they have been in 850,000 years. For as far back as we can directly measure atmospheric CO2 levels in ice core samples temperature has closely tracked CO2 levels. So if this geologically overnight increase by 100ppm in a century continues and we hit 600ppm like we are almost certainly going to do, then do you and your cohorts understand the ramifications of a global temperature increase of just 2-3 degrees? Not to mention the life extinguishing repercussions of temperature increases towards the top of the IPCC predictions? That the irrevocable changes that it will trigger and the runaway processes that will be unleashed?

Because I don't think so. To think that more than 7 billion people cannot impact a thin skin of only 60 miles of atmosphere overhead is delusional. You must be willing to remain willfully ignorant to not understand how a dramatic increase of a known greenhouse gas would not impact climate. We're talking about doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in just 200 years... 100 of which has already passed. That should be terrifying to any thinking person.
 
Nah, the Bill Derington in China has no idea about the agreement, and if he did happen to know he would have no avenue to voice displeasure.

I understand science, but probability is one thing, voicing in absolutes is another and thats where I have an issue.

My concern isn't the status quo, its giving even more power to the Govt, and when you start taxing companies and causing electricity prices on possibilities it causes the average American to acquire more dependence on the Govt, kinda like the chinese me.

When global warming really took off we were in the middle of several years of US Hurricane impacts, remember when that was the new norm due to global warming? Only it wasn't it was cyclical. We were also in a stretch where the average monthly temp per state hadn't been below average in something like 5 years. That was also the new norm, only it wasn't, roughly 4 years ago that changed as well, cyclical.

Droughts-climate change
Floods - climate change
Hurricanes- climate change
lack of hurricanes-climate change
heatwaves-climate change
Too much snow-climate change
not enough snow-climate change
forest fires-climate change

I'm sure I'm leaving something out, but you get the picture, climate change is real it does happen, but it isn't any different than it's ever been we're just more attentive to it now, so we notice EVERY little thing thats out of the ordinary.

I think you're conflating headlines with the science. Hence, the article I linked chiding Obama for declaring something with an absolute without qualification. However, the scientists tend to use more precise, accurate language. Read the reports, not the headlines, and voila! You cannot state the bolded then say you understand the science. Again, it looks like you conflate headlines with science. Not the same thing.

Re: giving power to the government. If Company X harms third parties (in other words, people without possible contract rights to remedy the harm), the harmed have 2 options: 1) government regulation of that harm, and 2) litigation. I'm a litigator. It's what I do, and it's why I'm paid what I am. It is the worse option by far. Litigation is great for discovering issues in the first place, but regulation is much more predictable, stable, and beneficial to company and public in the long run. Courts are simply not equipped to handle these issues, nor should they be. But doing nothing is just accepting it - giving power to the person who caused the harm.

Your concern is absolutely the status quo. It's your baseline - electricity costs $X. Well, if the market is not taking into account externalities (imperfect input = imperfect market), then the cost was only X because the failure of the system in the first place. Just because it's death by a billion little paper cuts rather than one single wrecking ball moment does not mean it's not harm inflicted and not paid for. Your positions is too ****ing bad, that's the price because that's what it was, ignore those costs that are sloughed off on others because up to this point they haven't been measured. That's elevating the status quo over all.

Let me ask you a question - what should the price of electricity be? My answer is the market price, and I suspect your answer is the same. But I want that market to be a properly functioning market, and that will require adjustments when the information the market receives is wrong. Pollution (and similar things) is difficult for markets to price because it often has very small, very difficult to detect harms spread out across a wide array of people, not that different from the difficulties that class actions are meant to solve. We shouldn't lock ourselves into imperfect practices, imperfect inputs, and imperfect markets. I'm a capitalist, but a fully deregulated economy (as in zero regulation) has imperfect markets for the reasons I laid out above. Fully deregulated is Ford F-150 smog China. Now, there is a vast range of possible regulation outcomes, but only Von Mises quoters are calling for completely unregulated economies, and they're easily dismissed. Most of the work is done in the degree of regulation.

Consider the argument that renewables should be competitive on the market, and the only reason they are competitive now is the various subsidies and tax breaks that various levels of government have adopted. Very popular argument, but that's not the whole story, is it? Grossly oversimplified hypothetical, but bear with me. Assume that CO2 causes harm. Energy Supply A costs $X and creates $Y in CO2 damages. Energy Supply B costs $Z and creates $0 in CO2 damages. $X < $Z, so many would say that B is not competitive. But Energy Supply A does not have to pay for it's $Y damages due to imperfect markets, so the two competing supplies are not on even ground, so how can we argue that B is not competitive? We can't. What we can do is 1) make Energy Supply A pay for $Y (two primary ways are regulation and litigation), 2) give a subsidy to Energy Supply B, or some combination. If $Z = $X + $Y, then they are equal in cost, i.e. competitive. It's not artificial, it's not anti-market, it's simply correcting the inputs to account for actual costs, not just easily or traditionally measured costs.

Here's my final piece in this thread. Some dog occasionally poops on my lawn. That imposes a cost on me - picking up some other dog's steaming shit. That other dog owner is reaping a benefit - not having to pick up dog shit. So I finally find out who it is (some old man who just lets his dog run out and doesn't follow it) and tell him - hey, your dog is shitting in my yard. You need to 1) prevent that in the future, and 2) pick up that steaming turd that's there now. Should his response be that I am imposing an unfair cost on him because he's always done that? In other words, should it be my problem or his? Your clinging to the status quo counsels that it should be my problem because his current cost of owning a dog does not include picking up shit. I say no. Thankfully, he agreed with me.
 
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Bill, please explain how faulty temperature instrumentation raises global CO2 levels. Thanks.
It doesn't affect the CO2 levels at all. It elevates the perceived consequence of raised CO2 levels. Unlike man's supposed effect on the climate, there can be no debate about whether or not the recorded temperatures have been manipulated. There can be no doubt that areas comprising millions of square miles have their temperatures estimated. There can be no doubt that the effect of urban heat islands skew the temperature record to the high side.

You argue silly points about 7 billion people and 60 mile atmosphere. Why are you so easily duped by concrete evidence of reality? NASA and NOAA are the government. Your argument is literally no different from someone using the bible to prove the existence of a God. This is your religion.
 
It doesn't affect the CO2 levels at all. It elevates the perceived consequence of raised CO2 levels. Unlike man's supposed effect on the climate, there can be no debate about whether or not the recorded temperatures have been manipulated. There can be no doubt that areas comprising millions of square miles have their temperatures estimated. There can be no doubt that the effect of urban heat islands skew the temperature record to the high side.
Ignoring your nonsense, So then what accounts for the dramatic increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere?

You only have "its a natural cycle" to fall back on and yet it can be easily demonstrated that we are well outside the normal range of cyclical wax and waning of CO2 levels, so what else do you have essentially that contributes to the discussion at hand?

That's right. Nothing.

All you're doing is throwing shit against the wall hoping it sticks. People have to waste endless amounts of time responding to your circular arguments that have been repeatedly beaten down. The point being that as long as an idiot can ask even the most outlandish question, then it can be seen as somehow doubt being present until the last moron is satisfied.

It doesn't work that way. You and your tired old ignorance have been left behind. You are of no value. Trying to educate you is pointless as you are willfully ignorant and have elected to remain that way no matter what data is put in front of you. So why continue? Other than it being somewhat amusing to slap you around it does ultimately get tiresome to deal with you and your dissembling methods.
 
No. False. You intentionally misstate my views. I've said in these threads many times in the past the man HAS to affect CO2 levels beyond what they would be without us. My point, and the one that you ignore, is that the temperature is the ONLY evidence we have for warming. If the temperature record is not accurate, and it is not, then there is no proof that the elevated CO2 level is affecting anything other than accelerating plant growth.

Alarmists want to use "natural variability" to prove their point, but then scoff at it when it proves the opposite.
 
Just stating "temperature is the ONLY evidence we have for warming" disqualifies you from this discussion.

Sea levels rising, shrinking/collapsing ice shelves, declining arctic sea ice, glacial retreat, increase in extreme weather events, ocean acidification, and decreased snow cover. The evidence of climate change is all around us already. http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

As I said, you are willfully ignorant so there is no point in discussing something with somebody that is unwilling to acknowledge hard scientific evidence that is supported by what amounts to the most advanced scientific thinking from every scientific institution on earth with a national or international standing.

Please, find something else to be stupid about. This issue is too important to entertain fools any further and collectively that is exactly what the world has decided to do. From science, to government, to the military, to now even the responsible private sector have all moved on. The world has transcended your ignorance. Navigated around it. Deemed you an irritant to be ignored.
 
Just stating "temperature is the ONLY evidence we have for warming" disqualifies you from this discussion.

.

You are just cherry picking a point. Of course there has been temperature rise out of the ice age, including out of the little ice age, which has been obscured by data manipulation. Glaciers melt after the ice age. That is normal and cannot be used as proof of AGW. Sea levels are rising in places at the same rate they have for quite awhile now, again no proof of AGW.

Temperature is the only evidence we have for saying CO2 deposited by man is the CAUSE for the warming. CO2 is the only part of natural variability that can be blamed on man, and taxed.
 
As I said, you are willfully ignorant so there is no point in discussing something with somebody that is unwilling to acknowledge hard scientific evidence that is supported by what amounts to the most advanced scientific thinking from every scientific institution on earth with a national or international standing.

Missed this part, I skim what you write. You are the one being willfully ignorant. I am arguing for facts and you are arguing for a concept. I'm going to win that argument every time. Your "hard scientific evidence" is adulterated. The fact it is is contained within your bible.
 
Z, no one is saying anything about the Co2 levels.
My point about temps are valid because without them the whole point is moot regardless of Co2 levels.
When you are adjusting data for years past, because you have no idea what it actually was, and then using that same data compared to actual temps today it makes a difference when you say HOTTEST YEAR since 1880.

When in reality there's a chance that possibly most likely it is, but that doesn't have quite the dramatic effect.
 
When you are adjusting data for years past, because you have no idea what it actually was, and then using that same data compared to actual temps today it makes a difference when you say HOTTEST YEAR since 1880.
.
Again, I apologize but you, like ymmot, are discrediting yourselves from the conversation by blatantly displaying a fundamental ignorance of the subject at hand. Here is a link that might help you understand ice core sampling and climate reconstruction:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/ice-core

When you have a big giant band like the Tambora erurption of 1815 it makes it even easier to hone in on a given time period and syncronize sampling data. If we can go back 850,000 years and directly be measuring temperature, snowfall, accumulation rates, melt layers, greenhouse gasses, and even changes in sea ice composition then what on earth would make you concerned about 1880? An entire record perfectly preserved going back nearly a million years and you're whining about 140 years ago? Just boggles the mind.

That's why scientists can barely contain their laughter or disdain for the ymmot types. They want to talk about an 18 year hiatus (which is still wrong) and ignore a million year record. There just is no point in entertaining discussions with people like this.
 
ABSTRACT:
No current tree ring (TR) based reconstruction of extratropical Northern
Hemisphere (ENH) temperatures that extends into the 1990s captures the
full range of late 20th century warming observed in the instrumental
record.

He's saying that the tree rings don't show the same elevated temperatures related to urban heat islands.


Over recent decades, a divergence between cooler reconstructed
and warmer instrumental large-scale temperatures is observed.

Even you can understand what is said there.


We hypothesize that this problem is partly related to the fact that
some of the constituent chronologies used for previous reconstructions
show divergence against local temperatures in the recent period.

Settled science, accurate to the hundredth of a degree.


In this study, we compiled TR data and published local/regional
reconstructions that show no divergence against local temperatures.
These data have not been included in other large-scale temperature
reconstructions. Utilizing this data set, we developed a new, completely
independent reconstruction of ENH annual temperatures (1750�2000).

This record is not meant to replace existing reconstructions but
allows some degree of independent validation of these earlier studies
as well as demonstrating that TR data can better model recent warming
at large scales when careful selection of constituent chronologies is
made at the local scale.
Although the new series tracks the increase in
ENH annual temperatures over the last few decades better than any
existing reconstruction, it still slightly under predicts values in
the post-1988 period.
We finally discuss possible reasons why it is
so difficult to model post-mid-1980s warming, provide some possible
alternative approaches with regards to the instrumental target and
detail several recommendations that should be followed in future
large-scale reconstruction attempts that may result in more robust
temperature estimates.

"We have figured out a way to model the tree ring data to match the inflated temperatures caused by the urban heat island effect". "It's science, no one will know".

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/n_hem_temp/nhtemp-wilson2007.txt
 
I posted this on page 3, perhaps you missed it. Can you read this and see how someone could think there just might be some guesswork involved in the "settled science'?

No, I can't. Measurements in science are by their very nature very difficult and things can rarely be limited to a single variable. Those measurements are probably different now (more accurate) in 2016 than in 2004 for other reasons than manipulation or forgery, and when they don't agree independent of one another usually new measurements or new methodology are introduced, then peer reviewed and edited and challenged by other scientists.

I never said it doesn't exist, in fact I've stated just the opposite. You're the one making assumptions that my political leaning plays a part in it, it doesn't.

What I meant by you (general plural) was an indefinite you, not you specifically. Maybe I should use ya'll instead of you in the future to be more clear.

But good for you for not being a denier.
 
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Ymmot, you know absolutely nothing about scientific rigor nor the scientific process. Please stop trying to insinuate yourself into something you simply are not capable of comprehending nor discussing rationally.
 
I know that you don't like that they admitted the tree ring evidence didn't match the instrument readings, especially when they point out it is more difficult during the time you spout off about being the highest temperature.

Evidence at every turn points to the fact that the increase in CO2 has not been responsible for any warming. Data manipulation is the only answer.
 
No, I can't. Measurements in science are by their very nature very difficult and things can rarely be limited to a single variable. Those measurements are probably different now (more accurate) in 2016 than in 2004 for other reasons than manipulation or forgery, and when they don't agree independent of one another usually new measurements or new methodology are introduced, then peer reviewed and edited and challenged by other scientists.



What I meant by you (general plural) was an indefinite you, not you specifically. Maybe I should use ya'll instead of you in the future to be more clear.

But good for you for not being a denier.

Of course climate changes, but it isn't under some rapid change now, and man ain't causing it to change.
 
Of course climate changes, but it isn't under some rapid change now, and man ain't causing it to change.
That's your opinion and you are perfectly entitled to it. It is not shared by any scientific body on earth of national or international standing, it is not shared by any advanced government in the industrialized world, and it is not shared by our own military.

For 850,000 years CO2 was within the general range of 200-300ppm. Our industrial revolution begins and we add 100ppm in a century. That is dramatic. That is outside the normal cyclical range. That is by any measure a rapid change. And it is going to get worse.

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