Could This Be The Year a #16 Seed Beats a #1?

[kyjeff1]

I doubt Monmouth will be a 16 seed but God help the higher seeded team(s) that draw them.
Well at least the show their bench puts on will be fun to watch.

 

[Skutt]

There's a 50% chance that we'd see 124 straight wins by 1 seeds if the true odds of each game are 99.44%. And at 99%, the run of luck wouldn't be as incredible as I imagined - there'd be a 28.8% chance of this run happening.

This is the most useless junk I've ever seen.

 

[hotelblue]

i think it'll happen in a year where syracuse is a one seed.

 

[UKUGA]

Absolutely. There is not a dominant #1, let alone a clear-cut top 4-5, much less top 10.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

It will eventually happen. It's almost happened a few times before and a 15 has beaten a 2 like (5 times?). Just a good bounce away some day !!!

It will definitely happen someday. I agree this is a year when it's possible.

 

[UKWildcats#8]

I seriously doubt it.

 

[dukedevilz]

15 seeds are 7-117 against 2 seeds. That's a winning percentage of 5.6% - so about 1 in every 18 games. But with the addition of two sixteen seeds, you essentially have two 14-seeds listed at 15. And likewise with 16 seeds; there are essentially two number 15 seeds listed as 16-seeds.

There have been several close games over the years. Gonzaga (2013), Syracuse (2012), and Pittsburgh (2009) all escaped with narrow victories recently. In 1989, Oklahoma and Georgetown defeated East Tennessee State and Princeton, respectively, by one point each. On top of that, Illinois only beat McNeese State by six points. Three Number 1 seeds won by a combined 8-points in the 89 tourney - crazy. Perhaps this is the year where we get one or two nail-biters in the 1/16 matchup.

 

[HenryMuto]

The year it should have happened was in 1996 when Western Carolina had a 3 point shot from the top of the key down 2 in the final seconds against a shaky #1 seed in Purdue but the shot missed and Purdue held on 73-71. Purdue went down in the next game 76-69 to #8 seed Georgia. That was the year it should have happened.

Princeton of course barely lost 50-49 to G'Town in 1989 as the final shot was blocked.

Then there was the one that went to overtime back in 1990 when Murray State took #1 Michigan State to overtime but fell by 4 points.

Then there was the one I will never forgot when #16 seed East Tennessee State took a 17 point lead on #1 seed Oklahoma only to lose 72-71.

 

[Supreme Lord Z]

Well, this will be the weakest group of #1s that I have ever seen to there is a better chance than ever for it to finally happen. Already been several very close calls.

 

[NKYWildcat]

For this to happen, you'll have to have some shaky #1 seed play a team that is grossly underseeded as a 16.

 

[Estil]

To paraphrase the first Rocky movie, no 16 may have beat a one seed yet, but several apparently have "gone the distance". That's gotta count for something right?

 

[dukedevilz]

The year it should have happened was in 1996 when Western Carolina had a 3 point shot from the top of the key down 2 in the final seconds against a shaky #1 seed in Purdue but the shot missed and Purdue held on 73-71. Purdue went down in the next game 76-69 to #8 seed Georgia. That was the year it should have happened.

Haha yeah, I definitely remember that game. Many people complained about Purdue as a #1 seed immediately after the selection committee made their picks. I remember feeling confident that Western Carolina had a legitimate shot throughout the duration of the game. I actually played some pick-up ball against Joel Fleming, the guy who missed the 3-pointer at the end, and we liked to make fun of him, "Hey aren't you guy who missed the big shot against Purdue in 96?". He was a good sport about it though.