In my opinion, people put way too much emphasis on 3 pt shooting. In the NBA, that works well because you have the best of the best going against each other, and with a 7 game series, you can afford an off night or 2 and still win the series. But in college, at the end of the year, it is a 1 game and your done scenario. When you look at the NBA, their emphasis on 3 point shooting is why a team can beat a team by 30 one night, and then lose by 30 to the same team the next night.
In college, it is rare for players to get in the zone like a Steph Curry. So we really don't have to try to overcome that. If we look at last year, when we were for a period of time the best team in the country, all of our perimeter scoring was coming from 3 guys, Grady Washington, and Mintz. Those guys were 42%, 35% and 34% respectively. We need 1-2 guys that are pretty high level shooters, and we have that in CJ and Reeves, and then a couple of decent to good shooters, which we have in Wallace and Livingston. The target is around 20-24 3s a game. CJ and Reeves need to be around half of our attempts, Wallace and Livingston need to be about 3 or so each, and then let the rest spread out the remaining few attempts.
We have to have a couple of guys that can make them, and we really need to get in the 20-24 attempts per game area. Doing that and reaching our potential on Defense will make this team not only a contender, but probably the runaway favorite. It's why even though we as fans talk about what all is missing from the team, most national people are putting us in the top 3 preseason, a couple even put us at #1 (and those were post Sharpe decision).
Here’s our dilemma:
We have a PG on the floor 30+ minutes a game that is a weak jump shooter. He thrives getting to the rim, but he is predictable, because he almost always drives left. Against average teams, he can still get where he wants to go because he is one of the fastest guys in the country with the ball. But against good teams, they will not let him get by and get to his left very often. That is made even easier by the fact that he is a poor shooter, so teams can sag off him or play zone and keep him out of the lane.
This makes the rest of the team easier to guard. Teams can clog the middle and make it difficult for Tshiebwe to get the ball in the post. They can cut off the passing lanes that allow us to feed the post. They have more bodies to grab rebounds. They have more bodies to block Tshiebwe out.
Now that means two players are limited, meaning that the other three have to be contained. So if the other three guys are suspect shooters, you can also lay off them and clog the lane which keeps Wheeler from driving and Tshiebwe from having room inside.
Now if one is a shooter, teams can put a “chaser” on him and leave the other four around the paint. That helps our halfcourt offense a bit. If there are two shooters, then you have two “chasers” and that leaves just three around the hoop. With three shooters, then the defense has to spread out and play man to man on everyone except Wheeler, so they can double team the post. Other than that, they have to play us straight up.
Now if guys are threats to shoot and can drive and score, then you are in business. That really opens things up.
Most of the time last year we had two guys that could stretch the defense starting in Washington and Grady. We could bring Mintz in for either player and keep two on the floor. This still meant that teams could pack it in and keep three in the paint most of the time, which made it difficult for Tshiebwe to get touches, but his skill overcame that, so we were still pretty efficient and we were winning big time.
Now at the end of the season, two of our three shooters (Washington and Grady) were hobbled. Their efficiency went down and teams had an easier time defending us, so our team faltered in the halfcourt offense. And the rest is history, as they say.
So, in summary, to efficient in the halfcourt offense, we need at least two guys to stretch the defense, and three would really open things up. So a lot hinges on whether Wallace and Livingston are able to stretch the defense. And if Toppin can as well, we will be a really good halfcourt offensive team.
By the way, the reason Cal is constantly yelling, “Run” and “Go” is because he knows that if we can get down the floor before the defense is set, we will score. Cal’s teams are usually much better in the open court than in the halfcourt offense. This is another reason why teams want to slow it down and pack it in and play a lot of zone against us.
Now, I’m just a Junior Pro coach and I know how to defend a UK team. How many college coaches have figured this out?