Bracket Matrix Update (Kentucky 3 seed, 10th overall)

[ganner918]

With today's update, all the brackets made before Saturday's games have fallen out of the matrix. The top 4 seed lines, in order, are:

1: Auburn
1: Houston
1: Duke
1: Florida
2: Alabama
2: Tennessee
2: Michigan State
2: St. Johns
3: Texas Tech
3: Kentucky
3: Iowa State
3: Texas A&M
4: Wisconsin
4: Maryland
4: Purdue,
4: Clemson

I think if we win 1 game, over Georgia or Oklahoma, we're a lock for a 3. MAYBE if we beat both Alabama and Florida we could climb to the last 2. St John's resume isn't that impressive, and Texas Tech has worse losses than we do. Just wonder if we have too many losses to overcome - if could have pulled out 2 of Arkansas, @Vandy, @Texas we'd be a 2 seed.

 

[Blueisbest]

Highly unlikely but not impossible to sneak into that last 2 seed if we can at least get to the semi's of the SEC Tournament.

 

[runt#69]

We should already be a lock for the 3 seed, and overall, I think that list is just about right. Spot on, even. I still think even if we win the SEC tournament they won't give us a 2 seed though. We'll be a 3. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a #4 there either, knowing the committee.

A 4 seed could be "justified" if we lose the first game in the SEC tournament, who's to say - them using that as a particular reason could be enough to sway them to drop us from the 3 line, which we should have held on to. A#4 seed plain wouldn't be right at this point, or a loss in one game in the SEC tournament.

Then again, seeing UNC*** get called a bid, that'll be the worst part of it.

I imagine if we win the SEC tournament, it'll be real close to 2011. Beat Alabama in this tournament, they'll get that 2 like Florida got then, and we'll be stuck with a 4, just like that year. Total headscratcher but we all know they'd never allow 3 #2 seeds from the SEC (especially if we get 2 #1 seeds... they can't let that happen, can they ?) LOL

Get ready. You know it's coming. Something nefarious.

End analysis - screw whatever nefarious projection they got us in.

Just win.

Go Big Blue

 

[Cats192]

We're probably a 3 no matter what. Win 1 to be safe. A 2 seems far fetched but is possible. We need St. John's to lose early. We need to probably get to the SEC tournament championship game.

St. John's gets "bonus points" if you will for winning their conference. So I think it's hard to overcome.

I also think the difference between a 2 and 3 doesn't matter a ton.
Assume the 1's hold as is: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
The 2's wind up as: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John's

If we see Alabama in the SEC tournament--then we can't see them until the Elite 8 (can't play a team before the regional final if you've played them 3 times prior to the NCAA tournament).

That leaves Tennessee--we've beat them twice. And sure, it's hard to beat a team 3 times. They would be my last pick. But if I'm getting a team we beat twice in the Sweet 16, you could do worse.

MSU: They're very good. They're not on the same level as the top 4 teams in the SEC.

St. John's: Great defensively. Could make it hard for us to score. Also not great offensively. Our defense has improved dramatically.

 

[Ron Mehico]

My god people THE SEC TOURNAMENT DOESNT MATTER FOR SEEDING EXCEPT IN RARE CIRCUMSTANCES. It’s been like 15 yrs in a row where it hasn’t made a difference. Last year we lost the first game and were still a 3 seed. Theres a 99% chance we’ll be a 3 seed no matter what happens in the tournament

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

My god people THE SEC TOURNAMENT DOESNT MATTER FOR SEEDING EXCEPT IN RARE CIRCUMSTANCES. It’s been like 15 yrs in a row where it hasn’t made a difference. Last year we lost the first game and were still a 3 seed. Theres a 99% chance we’ll be a 3 seed no matter what happens in the tournament

Honestly, the SECT doesn’t matter that much at the end of the day. It’s a fan service tournament.

 

[The_Answer1313]

My god people THE SEC TOURNAMENT DOESNT MATTER FOR SEEDING EXCEPT IN RARE CIRCUMSTANCES. It’s been like 15 yrs in a row where it hasn’t made a difference. Last year we lost the first game and were still a 3 seed. Theres a 99% chance we’ll be a 3 seed no matter what happens in the tournament

It matters just like every other conference tournament game. It's just that at the end of the day, we are only talking about a tiny subset of games. Seeding should be based on an entire season of work so the tournaments are minimal. But they still matter. Just ask the bubble teams in recent history if winning/losing the first game of their tournaments were meaningful or not.

The title game.........well things have probably already been determined as far as that goes. That probably doesn't matter at that point on Sunday afternoon.

But the games leading up to it definitely do count.

 

[ftp000]

My god people THE SEC TOURNAMENT DOESNT MATTER FOR SEEDING EXCEPT IN RARE CIRCUMSTANCES. It’s been like 15 yrs in a row where it hasn’t made a difference. Last year we lost the first game and were still a 3 seed. Theres a 99% chance we’ll be a 3 seed no matter what happens in the tournament

I don't think that's right. In past years they have said that the final game doesn't matter. But it seems like early rounds have.

 

[michaeluk26]

I'd be cool with having to play MSU or SJU in the Sweet 16. But we gotta win two games to get there first, something we've failed to accomplish since 2019. I know Cal was our coach but Pope gotta show he can win in the NCAA tournament. (I believe he can.)

 

[Ron Mehico]

It matters just like every other conference tournament game. It's just that at the end of the day, we are only talking about a tiny subset of games. Seeding should be based on an entire season of work so the tournaments are minimal. But they still matter. Just ask the bubble teams in recent history if winning/losing the first game of their tournaments were meaningful or not.

The title game.........well things have probably already been determined as far as that goes. That probably doesn't matter at that point on Sunday afternoon.

But the games leading up to it definitely do count.

Bubble teams, teams that need the automatic in by winning, etc are the rare circumstances that matter. A team that is SOLIDLY a 3 it almost certainly doesn’t matter.

 

[Ron Mehico]

I don't think that's right. In past years they have said that the final game doesn't matter. But it seems like early rounds have.

I mean we’ve been through this for 15 years in a row

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Bubble teams, teams that need the automatic in by winning, etc are the rare circumstances that matter. A team that is SOLIDLY a 3 it almost certainly doesn’t matter.

The committee isn't gonna mess with dropping UK to a 4 if we lose Thursday. I 100% agree with you. It's already a pain in their asses to seed with so many sec teams. Theu aren't moving anyone unless lsu or sc or Texas wins the sec tourney IMO.

 

[Cats192]

I mean we’ve been through this for 15 years in a row

The championship game absolutely doesn't matter. At least the Sunday games don't. Bracket is already made.

I think beyond the 1st round of games, you really don't get dinged for a conference tournament loss. It can matter. But it's less. And so, even if we go on a run, you get diminishing returns from St. John's losing (unless it's the first round or just a bad opponent).

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

We're not going to drop off the 3 line if we lose a game against the Kenpom 33rd best (Georgia) or 38th best team (OU) in the SEC tourney.

UK has EIGHT top 15 wins.

 

[bbncal02]

We should already be a lock for the 3 seed, and overall, I think that list is just about right. Spot on, even. I still think even if we win the SEC tournament they won't give us a 2 seed though. We'll be a 3. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a #4 there either, knowing the committee.

A 4 seed could be "justified" if we lose the first game in the SEC tournament, who's to say - them using that as a particular reason could be enough to sway them to drop us from the 3 line, which we should have held on to. A#4 seed plain wouldn't be right at this point, or a loss in one game in the SEC tournament.

Then again, seeing UNC*** get called a bid, that'll be the worst part of it.

I imagine if we win the SEC tournament, it'll be real close to 2011. Beat Alabama in this tournament, they'll get that 2 like Florida got then, and we'll be stuck with a 4, just like that year. Total headscratcher but we all know they'd never allow 3 #2 seeds from the SEC (especially if we get 2 #1 seeds... they can't let that happen, can they ?) LOL

Get ready. You know it's coming. Something nefarious.

End analysis - screw whatever nefarious projection they got us in.

Just win.

Go Big Blue

If we win the SECT that would mean beating Bama, Likely UF, and one of Auburn/Tenn. If that's not worthy of sneaking in the last 2? I don't know what we'd have to do.

 

[FirewithFire]

If the future follows the past then the SEC tournament will mean exactly jack and crap for everyone who is already in the field of 64. The only time we should really care is if someone on the bubble wins it all. That will changes everyone else's seed.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

The SEC tournament matters for our fans who show up and also for the all-time wins mark.

I know Calipari calloused our collective souls by convincing us that it didn't matter, but this is Kentucky. ALL of it matters.

 

[ftp000]

I mean we’ve been through this for 15 years in a row

I agree with you. Every year we repeatedly tell people over and over again that the Sunday game doesn't matter. People complain about the tournament final being on Sunday. The committee members have confirmed that the brackets are filled in on Saturday night.
I have never heard that none of it matters. Even the bracketology guy mention teams improving their seed by making it a round or two. I didn't imagine all of this.

 

[JwUKFan11]

As many have said even if we were to win the SECT we won't be a 2. Committee has proven over and over that they have this bracket set and ready to go before that game ends and the only reason they would consider it is if someone won it that wouldn't make the tournament otherwise.

 

[bucsrule8872]

We're probably a 3 no matter what. Win 1 to be safe. A 2 seems far fetched but is possible. We need St. John's to lose early. We need to probably get to the SEC tournament championship game.

St. John's gets "bonus points" if you will for winning their conference. So I think it's hard to overcome.

I also think the difference between a 2 and 3 doesn't matter a ton.
Assume the 1's hold as is: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
The 2's wind up as: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John's

If we see Alabama in the SEC tournament--then we can't see them until the Elite 8 (can't play a team before the regional final if you've played them 3 times prior to the NCAA tournament).

That leaves Tennessee--we've beat them twice. And sure, it's hard to beat a team 3 times. They would be my last pick. But if I'm getting a team we beat twice in the Sweet 16, you could do worse.

MSU: They're very good. They're not on the same level as the top 4 teams in the SEC.

St. John's: Great defensively. Could make it hard for us to score. Also not great offensively. Our defense has improved dramatically.

Agree with this, but keep this in mind, the rules are relaxed on conference matchups if there are 9 or more teams from the same conference. So, if the SC wants, they could put UK with Bama regardless of how many times they have met. I think that’s highly unlikely, but it is possible since there are so many teams from the conference that will make the NCAA.

 

[phyrekat]

Agree with this, but keep this in mind, the rules are relaxed on conference matchups if there are 9 or more teams from the same conference. So, if the SC wants, they could put UK with Bama regardless of how many times they have met. I think that’s highly unlikely, but it is possible since there are so many teams from the conference that will make the NCAA.

I think we get Duke or Houston as our 1 seed