Big Upsets - what it means

[Deeeefense]

A while back I opined that I though the portal would be the great equalizer, allowing mid and even lower tier SEC fans to collect talent that was being under utilized by elite programs and players from non-SEC teams that wanted to play in the top conference to enhance their draft chances. The portal allowed a team that had a good roster but holes to fill, to plug in instant upgrades while adding to depth. I think we are seeing that now with all the upsets around college football especially when you have the lowest ranked team in the conference knocking off the top rated one. The SEC has parity that I have never seen before literally any team can beat any other on any give day.

 

[R.O.T.Muckinfush]

I think players that are backups at elite programs don't want to sit and will transfer to play and get paid, SEC or not. SEC will still have a slight advantage due to athletic revenue and being in the black belt but that isn't everything anymore. The further away from the old system we get the more crazy and unpredictable it gets. CFB regular season reminds me of march madness now... a gamblers nightmare but loads of fun!

 

[fabcat]

I think it’s good for college football. Tired of seeing 3-4 teams run through the regular season unscathed year after year. The Portal has changed it more than anything. We could see a 12 team playoff with teams having 2+ losses. That opens it up for more non traditional teams to actually be playing for a playoff birth or even a NC late in November when typically the season was all but over besides bowl games.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Imo its more nil than anything. When money is a big factor in playing, you will be at a disadvantage vs those where money isn't the biggest factor.

 

[fabcat]

Imo its more nil than anything. When money is a big factor in playing, you will be at a disadvantage vs those where money isn't the biggest factor.

No doubt NIL is a major player, but without the portal like it is wouldn’t be as effective

 

[truebluewildcat]

Yeah, the inevitability of talent spreading, parity growing, via portal and NIL is starting to really show.

What we're seeing now is why I never understood how so many people were so staunchly against all the changes. Almost religiously. Especially the middle and lower tier programs and fans. Though they may never have the money, resources, facilities, or even NIL capabilities but they were always going to benefit from more freedom of movement talent now has.

Alabama will always have more resources, willingness to spend them on football, history, tradition, pomp and circumstance, etc... which will keep them in play for the first layer of talent. Starters, elite recruits, freshmen, redshirt freshmen.

The difference in this era now will be once those elite recruits realize they're not going to play as much of a role as they wanted after a year or two in program, they're going to bounce.

The crying shame of eras past was not the wealth, facilities, recruiting budgets, etc. It was QB rooms stuffed with 5* kids who could play somewhere else. It was special teams full of linebackers, TEs, WRs who could have gone and made significant contributions at other programs.

Then there's the talent that was playing at lower tier programs who can level up and go somewhere without sitting out a year and going through all that.

All that talent is blossoming all across the college landscape now.

I think it also means something for betting, lines...vegas. I'm sure they're on top of it and will adjust better than anyone with all the resources they have to dig into it all.

Right now though there's been some head scratching, goofy f8cking lines. Again, adjustment period just like everyone else involved.

Going forward though I think we're going to see a change in betting. Things at the P4 level at least will most likely trend more towards NFL.

You can't give programs 10, 15, 20 points anymore.

 

[Bluegrass79]

Transfer market and the retirement of good top-end recruiter/ coaches is starting to show through.
It's funny the first season that there's 12 teams allowed and all the historically good teams start losing.
There will be teams that get in with three losses. Kentucky could be one.
Win every game except losing one to Tennessee or Texas.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Teams are gonna lose games. I still think the same 8 to 10 teams will almost always win the national title.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Kids are definitely transferring for playing time, but if they are 2-3 year backups are they really going to change the college landscape by going to a new home? Now if a kid is a starter and is bought by another program that's a different deal. Kids are flocking to places playing the most NIL. The big Texas schools, OSU, Bama, Tn are trying to buy success. My favorite take was a vol fan stating their 8m dollar QB didn't understand running out of bounds with no time ended the game.

 

[maysvilleky]

It’s the lower tier programs that will suffer. I think I read one MAC school lost 36 kids to D1 power 5 programs.

 

[Deeeefense]

It’s the lower tier programs that will suffer. I think I read one MAC school lost 36 kids to D1 power 5 programs.

Not just GO5 schools but conferences other than the SEC and B10. Look at how much the ACC has declined. It's hard to even call them a P5 conference anymore, and all the real programs vacated the B12 already.

 

[mrschwump]

Kids are definitely transferring for playing time, but if they are 2-3 year backups are they really going to change the college landscape by going to a new home? Now if a kid is a starter and is bought by another program that's a different deal. Kids are flocking to places playing the most NIL. The big Texas schools, OSU, Bama, Tn are trying to buy success. My favorite take was a vol fan stating their 8m dollar QB didn't understand running out of bounds with no time ended the game.

I commented elsewhere that TN will have to levy a new $10 per ticket tax next year to buy Nico the Scarecrow a brain.

 

[ganner918]

It’s the lower tier programs that will suffer. I think I read one MAC school lost 36 kids to D1 power 5 programs.

Right -we're seeing an increased gap between P4/G5, but greater parity among the P4.

 

[Mark80]

I personally loved the games. We can be relevant going forward sure lock teams are not sure locked anymore. There’s so much more football to be played. All we need to do is keep winning.

 

[Lost In FL]

Teams are gonna lose games. I still think the same 8 to 10 teams will almost always win the national title.

Of the last 18 seasons, 9 teams have won titles. 5 of those 9 were SEC teams, which won 13 of the 18 seasons.

 

[K_TIME]

1. I think the gap between sec/big10 and rest of. College is growing. Even UK is hammering non conference teams that we usually do not

2. I think the gap between bottom of sec to mid to top is shrinking….teams like Ky have less holes then in past Guys like Lb Raynor, Tackle Mincey, Lb Dumas Johnson, Waller CB ../not to mention Brock at Qb

In past we’d play Morgan Newton, Wolbaugh at tackle, Mat Elam dline, etc not to mention some serious drop off in depth. Today those holes are much less and able to bridge the gap better vs top teams

 

[UKBrassowTipIN]

Good for the power 4, not good for conferences like the MAC

 

[blue cincy]

What it means this year is that the top teams with the easiest schedules (less losses) will get the byes. It means a team like Bama, Tennessee could be playing at say Penn State in the playoffs. The SEC will continue to feed upon itself. Whomever gets to the playoffs will be scary good from the SEC. ACC and Big 12 will host a game and might get Ole Miss and Missouri or someone like that.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

What it means this year is that the top teams with the easiest schedules (less losses) will get the byes. It means a team like Bama, Tennessee could be playing at say Penn State in the playoffs. The SEC will continue to feed upon itself. Whomever gets to the playoffs will be scary good from the SEC. ACC and Big 12 will host a game and might get Ole Miss and Missouri or someone like that.

They won't be hosting a game. It will be at a neutral site (acc and little 12 champs). I don't see any at large acc or little 12 team hosting as a 5 through 8 seed.

 

[The-Hack]

The portal allowed a team that had a good roster but holes to fill, to plug in instant upgrades while adding to depth.

Agreed.

The fact that Vandy was 0-60 against Top 5 ranked teams (rankings available since 1936) and beat Bama is a good indicator, and hardly the only one.

Ole Miss is 16-3 the this season and last: with losses only to Georgia, Bama and Kentucky. Would Kentucky be there absent Brock Vandergriff, Pop Dumas-Johnson, and half of our O-line?

Pavia (and Coach Jerry Kill) were amazing
last year at NMS. Vandy made amazing acquisitions!!

There are dozens of posts about NIL destroying college football!!

Lol!

This season has been the most exciting since 2007, and might prove crazier than that crazy-arse season!

And let’s not kid ourselves: everyone knows where the best football is played. Yes, we (Kentucky) might not be paying out what some have, but Brock Vandergriff was willing to come here even though we were not the highest bidder: he wanted to stay in the SEC and get to play.

 

[*CatinIL*]

Hopefully this past weekend got the players attention. They better be ready for anyone/everyone every week!

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I commented elsewhere that TN will have to levy a new $10 per ticket tax next year to buy Nico the Scarecrow a brain.

Yeah, with 100k+ per game, with 7 home games that 7m+ to buy kids. I remember when NIL wasn't suppose to be school funded. Expect the Vols to be near the top of the talent trees, they will add another "talent tax" as needed to assure that. It remains to be seen if that buys a brain.

 

[aikenite4uk]

Yeah, the inevitability of talent spreading, parity growing, via portal and NIL is starting to really show.

What we're seeing now is why I never understood how so many people were so staunchly against all the changes. Almost religiously. Especially the middle and lower tier programs and fans. Though they may never have the money, resources, facilities, or even NIL capabilities but they were always going to benefit from more freedom of movement talent now has.

Alabama will always have more resources, willingness to spend them on football, history, tradition, pomp and circumstance, etc... which will keep them in play for the first layer of talent. Starters, elite recruits, freshmen, redshirt freshmen.

The difference in this era now will be once those elite recruits realize they're not going to play as much of a role as they wanted after a year or two in program, they're going to bounce.

The crying shame of eras past was not the wealth, facilities, recruiting budgets, etc. It was QB rooms stuffed with 5* kids who could play somewhere else. It was special teams full of linebackers, TEs, WRs who could have gone and made significant contributions at other programs.

Then there's the talent that was playing at lower tier programs who can level up and go somewhere without sitting out a year and going through all that.

All that talent is blossoming all across the college landscape now.

I think it also means something for betting, lines...vegas. I'm sure they're on top of it and will adjust better than anyone with all the resources they have to dig into it all.

Right now though there's been some head scratching, goofy f8cking lines. Again, adjustment period just like everyone else involved.

Going forward though I think we're going to see a change in betting. Things at the P4 level at least will most likely trend more towards NFL.

You can't give programs 10, 15, 20 points anymore.

Perfectly stated.

 

[The-Hack]

remember when NIL wasn't suppose to be school funded.

This is not for NIL, but in anticipation of revenue sharing, next year.

As part of the revenue-sharing litigation, it appears the parties have agreed that each school can spend twenty million a year in future years.

 

[gojvc]

1. I think the gap between sec/big10 and rest of. College is growing. Even UK is hammering non conference teams that we usually do not

2. I think the gap between bottom of sec to mid to top is shrinking….teams like Ky have less holes then in past Guys like Lb Raynor, Tackle Mincey, Lb Dumas Johnson, Waller CB ../not to mention Brock at Qb

In past we’d play Morgan Newton, Wolbaugh at tackle, Mat Elam dline, etc not to mention some serious drop off in depth. Today those holes are much less and able to bridge the gap better vs top teams

I’d love to know what Vanderbilt’s payroll is compared to other SEC schools. They have zero football tradition but tons of rich alumni. Same with Indiana. They have almost zero football tradition but they do have Marc Cuban.

 

[mrschwump]

Yeah, with 100k+ per game, with 7 home games that 7m+ to buy kids. I remember when NIL wasn't suppose to be school funded. Expect the Vols to be near the top of the talent trees, they will add another "talent tax" as needed to assure that. It remains to be seen if that buys a brain.

Except TN better win. People don't become billionaires by pissing away their money, they want something in return and here they want wins. Chumlee's played 2 decent teams and has had 2 poor offensive showings, pretty disappointing for an offensive genius. Could we be seeing what we've discussed here previously? As Chumlee's career advanced at past stops he began to struggle? Still at the head of the line at the buffet of course.

 

[EKCAT4YRS]

Hopefully this past weekend got the players attention. They better be ready for anyone/everyone every week!

yes I agree but also it should get us fans attention, our team can lose to anyone! don't throw in the towel so quick when we do lose one!

 

[FirewithFire]

Now that the playoffs are a thing teams can afford to drop a game or two and still compete for a championship. I expect to see quite a few more upsets because of this.

 

[truebluewildcat]

Kids are definitely transferring for playing time, but if they are 2-3 year backups are they really going to change the college landscape by going to a new home? Now if a kid is a starter and is bought by another program that's a different deal. Kids are flocking to places playing the most NIL. The big Texas schools, OSU, Bama, Tn are trying to buy success. My favorite take was a vol fan stating their 8m dollar QB didn't understand running out of bounds with no time ended the game.

Look at Duke. They get Malik Murphy, who was at Texas a year and clearly would've been the back as Arch is clearly the guy. Texas won't miss Murphy. He may have gotten some run via games being handled and possibly seen some packages here and there. That's about it though. Three years ago, he'd probably have settled for that until he graduated and could transfer without sitting maybe ball out for a year somewhere. He's got Duke in conversation for ACC and maybe even playoffs, and 2-3 years of eligibility left.

We got BV. Career back up. Now he's not necessarily the second coming of Tim Couch but he's clearly been a difference. Big athlete, better runner than expected, has moved chains and kept drives alive in crucial moments.

Those are just two anecdotal stories, but if you multiply that across the college landscape. Give every middling program in the 30-45ish range 2, 3, 4 guys from programs 1-25. Plus, a couple diamonds in the rough who are transferring up from lower tier and G5. The gap closes.

 

[The-Hack]

Plus, a couple diamonds in the rough who are transferring up from lower tier and G5. The gap closes.

I just read that along with Coach Jerry Kill, and QB Diego Pavia, Vandy’s leading receiver is a Tight End who came from New Mexico State.

That’s quite a haul from one G5 school, who is now struggling.

The rich get richer!!

 

[mrschwump]

I just read that along with Coach Jerry Kill, and QB Diego Pavia, Vandy’s leading receiver is a Tight End who came from New Mexico State.

That’s quite a haul from one G5 school, who is now struggling.

The rich get richer!!

Think the TE was a HS buddy of Pavia, been teammates since 8-10 years old.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

This is not for NIL, but in anticipation of revenue sharing, next year.

As part of the revenue-sharing litigation, it appears the parties have agreed that each school can spend twenty million a year in future years.

Yeah, I am sure the vols will follow the rules to the letter. They been paying players since scores were kept.

 

[The-Hack]

Yeah, I am sure the vols will follow the rules to the letter. They been paying players since scores were kept.

So has Kentucky, and most schools.

I’m sure they paid more.

 

[The-Hack]

Think the TE was a HS buddy of Pavia, been teammates since 8-10 years old.

It would be nice to limit that TE!

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

So has Kentucky, and most schools.

I’m sure they paid more.

I always thought UK was a clean program and followed the rules except for a couple years. Vols have never played by the rules.

 

[mrschwump]

To answer the original question, "Big upsets, what does it mean?": Essentially, get your mind right, show up and play football. One thing that lingers and bothers me: UK has lost 9 of its last 11 SEC home games. That needs to be turned around NOW.

 

[mrschwump]

I always thought UK was a clean program and followed the rules except for a couple years. Vols have never played by the rules.

UK football had to be the worst cheating program in NCAA history.

 

[The-Hack]

I always thought UK was a clean program and followed the rules except for a couple years.

I think we are in the top 5 for most NCAA penalties/probations, most coming in football. I don’t think we were cheating worse than most, though, but had some sloppy folks trying to do it.

 

[The-Hack]

UK football had to be the worst cheating program in NCAA history.

Doing it “correctly” was so damn easy. Simply mailing cash, or paying coaches or players cash was stupid.

The better “operators” used co-signatures at banks for loans to Mom for
the new house, then the night depositories for paying off the loan. The “Note” was neither recorded with the mortgage, nor could the NCAA subpoena it, as they had no subpoena power.

No one actually could know who made the 3:00 am cash deposit for $4,800.00 each month until paid off in 2/3/4 years . . and it was small enough an amount of cash each month it created no federal reporting.

As to Mom’s getting nice houses, just how politically incorrect would it have been for the media to question why Mom has a nice house, especially if race differences were involved?