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Big Upsets - what it means

Deeeefense

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Aug 22, 2001
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A while back I opined that I though the portal would be the great equalizer, allowing mid and even lower tier SEC fans to collect talent that was being under utilized by elite programs and players from non-SEC teams that wanted to play in the top conference to enhance their draft chances. The portal allowed a team that had a good roster but holes to fill, to plug in instant upgrades while adding to depth. I think we are seeing that now with all the upsets around college football especially when you have the lowest ranked team in the conference knocking off the top rated one. The SEC has parity that I have never seen before literally any team can beat any other on any give day.
 
I think players that are backups at elite programs don't want to sit and will transfer to play and get paid, SEC or not. SEC will still have a slight advantage due to athletic revenue and being in the black belt but that isn't everything anymore. The further away from the old system we get the more crazy and unpredictable it gets. CFB regular season reminds me of march madness now... a gamblers nightmare but loads of fun!
 
I think it’s good for college football. Tired of seeing 3-4 teams run through the regular season unscathed year after year. The Portal has changed it more than anything. We could see a 12 team playoff with teams having 2+ losses. That opens it up for more non traditional teams to actually be playing for a playoff birth or even a NC late in November when typically the season was all but over besides bowl games.
 
Imo its more nil than anything. When money is a big factor in playing, you will be at a disadvantage vs those where money isn't the biggest factor.
 
Imo its more nil than anything. When money is a big factor in playing, you will be at a disadvantage vs those where money isn't the biggest factor.
No doubt NIL is a major player, but without the portal like it is wouldn’t be as effective
 
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Yeah, the inevitability of talent spreading, parity growing, via portal and NIL is starting to really show.

What we're seeing now is why I never understood how so many people were so staunchly against all the changes. Almost religiously. Especially the middle and lower tier programs and fans. Though they may never have the money, resources, facilities, or even NIL capabilities but they were always going to benefit from more freedom of movement talent now has.

Alabama will always have more resources, willingness to spend them on football, history, tradition, pomp and circumstance, etc... which will keep them in play for the first layer of talent. Starters, elite recruits, freshmen, redshirt freshmen.

The difference in this era now will be once those elite recruits realize they're not going to play as much of a role as they wanted after a year or two in program, they're going to bounce.

The crying shame of eras past was not the wealth, facilities, recruiting budgets, etc. It was QB rooms stuffed with 5* kids who could play somewhere else. It was special teams full of linebackers, TEs, WRs who could have gone and made significant contributions at other programs.

Then there's the talent that was playing at lower tier programs who can level up and go somewhere without sitting out a year and going through all that.

All that talent is blossoming all across the college landscape now.

I think it also means something for betting, lines...vegas. I'm sure they're on top of it and will adjust better than anyone with all the resources they have to dig into it all.

Right now though there's been some head scratching, goofy f8cking lines. Again, adjustment period just like everyone else involved.

Going forward though I think we're going to see a change in betting. Things at the P4 level at least will most likely trend more towards NFL.

You can't give programs 10, 15, 20 points anymore.
 
Transfer market and the retirement of good top-end recruiter/ coaches is starting to show through.
It's funny the first season that there's 12 teams allowed and all the historically good teams start losing.
There will be teams that get in with three losses. Kentucky could be one.
Win every game except losing one to Tennessee or Texas.
 
Kids are definitely transferring for playing time, but if they are 2-3 year backups are they really going to change the college landscape by going to a new home? Now if a kid is a starter and is bought by another program that's a different deal. Kids are flocking to places playing the most NIL. The big Texas schools, OSU, Bama, Tn are trying to buy success. My favorite take was a vol fan stating their 8m dollar QB didn't understand running out of bounds with no time ended the game.
 
It’s the lower tier programs that will suffer. I think I read one MAC school lost 36 kids to D1 power 5 programs.
Not just GO5 schools but conferences other than the SEC and B10. Look at how much the ACC has declined. It's hard to even call them a P5 conference anymore, and all the real programs vacated the B12 already.
 
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Kids are definitely transferring for playing time, but if they are 2-3 year backups are they really going to change the college landscape by going to a new home? Now if a kid is a starter and is bought by another program that's a different deal. Kids are flocking to places playing the most NIL. The big Texas schools, OSU, Bama, Tn are trying to buy success. My favorite take was a vol fan stating their 8m dollar QB didn't understand running out of bounds with no time ended the game.
I commented elsewhere that TN will have to levy a new $10 per ticket tax next year to buy Nico the Scarecrow a brain.
 
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