Bart Torvik's projected stats for UK's 24-25 team
- Thread starter Smashcat
- Start date
If Carr and Robinson put up those numbers that's pretty close to All-SEC star level, isn't it?
Robinson 13ppg
Carr 12ppg
Williams 10ppg
Brea 10ppg
Oweh 9ppg
Butler 8ppg
Kriisa 7ppg
Garrison 6ppg
Almonor 4ppg
Chandler 4ppg
Perry 2ppg
Noah 1ppg
Carr 12ppg
Williams 10ppg
Brea 10ppg
Oweh 9ppg
Butler 8ppg
Kriisa 7ppg
Garrison 6ppg
Almonor 4ppg
Chandler 4ppg
Perry 2ppg
Noah 1ppg
Interesting. Not bad but he's quite bearish on Amari Williams. Hope he's wrong there.
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I hate to pick this apart. But:
- has either of our C's only playing 1/2 the game (51%); in fact he has 27mpg with either Robinson or Oweh or Chandler playing the PF/4.
- has Garrison playing > 2X Williams, Williams only 6mpg when most of us expect him to start & play at least 20mpg
- Almonor and Noah are missing. Noah mpg may be low like Perry. But Almonor is our only backup PF so should play some.
- I think his minutes for Carr (32.4), Kriisa (27.6) & Chandler (11.6) may each be 3-5mpg high, and
Since we have no real superstar I could see 5-6 averaging double figures and on any giving night someone different going off.
Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander mentioned this. After listening to them, Parrish made some pretty good points about why Kentucky shouldn't be ranked. Namely, that all teams who took more than 7 transfers last season (except NCSU) were pretty much duds last season.
Obviously, Kentucky is an extreme scenario this season when it comes to transfers, but my expectations are tempered. Just so many new guys on same roster.
Obviously, Kentucky is an extreme scenario this season when it comes to transfers, but my expectations are tempered. Just so many new guys on same roster.
Did they list all of the schools who took seven or more players? I'm interested to see the type of players those schools had v. the players we have acquired.
It looks like he only projects what he expects to be the top ten contributors. I think this is purely a statistical projection based on whatever variables he uses and he isn’t making adjustments from that. I’ve read that his system is low on Almonor because of the average quality of opponent he played against. The same thing probably applies to Williams compared to Garrison.
I found the list of schools who had 7+ transfers last season:
Arkansas (7 transfers): 16-17 (6-12)
Memphis (10 transfers): 22-10 (11-7)
Arizona St. (7 transfers): 14-18 (8-12)
UCF (7 transfers): 17-16 (7-11) *First year in the Big 12
West Virginia (10 transfers): 9-23 (4-14)
Penn St. (9 transfers): 16-17 (9-11)
St. Johns (9 transfers): 20-13 (11-9)
NC State (7 transfers): 26-15 (9-11)
Only four teams had winning records, and only two with in-conference winning records. NC State was the lone exception to a bad season, making it to the Final Four.
Excellent stats! Great work.
I think we will fall somewhere around where St. John’s ended up last season record wise.
Our team is probably better than St. John’s was last season, but I think the SEC is going to be much tougher than the Big East.
20 wins in the regular season. 10-8 in conference. Probably make the tourney and make a little run in the NCAA tourney. Sweet Sixteen maybe.
Then did he think Nelson would do nothing at Alabama last year, or that Schierman would have done nothing at Creighton 2 years ago. I'm not saying Williams is comparable (impactwise) to those 2, but I don't think he's that far behind. He has the size of a high-major C, and he was Defensive POY in his conference. As for Almonor, I get it. He is short (6'7) for his position. I think though he will have to play some (more than the FR) simply because we only have 4 guys (him being 1 of them) who can play the 5 or 4 spots, and I don't see Pope the type to play a guy (Carr) 35mpg.
And I do understand statistical projections, I am a Statistician. But good statistical projections should take into account position minutes.
I expect a little more than that from Garrison and Williams.Interesting. Not bad but he's quite bearish on Amari Williams. Hope he's wrong there.
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And Almonor should be in the top 9 or 10.
I think it probably does take into account positional minutes, but it is one size fits all and is going to be way off in some cases. This is probably one of those cases in terms of minutes played and everything downstream of that.
I don't think you can say those were "bad" seasons. It's all relative, compared to how they did in prior years, how was their conference, and what level of quality were their transfers.
Arkansas - yes was a "bad" season. Although 2 key factors were the personal issues that arose with a couple players on that team, and the Brasile injury.
Memphis - that wasn't a bad year.
Arizona St - about the same as every other year for that school
UCF - I would consider that a good year, first year in a P5 conference, the #1 P5 conference last year, and they were a win or two from the NCAA-T
WVU - bad year clearly
Penn St - not a bad year, about average for that school
St Johns - not a bad year
NC St - really they had a year more like the others, the only difference was their ACC-T and NCAA-T runs.
That said, I doubt any of them brought in the quality of players that we have:
PG - who helped lead his team to a top 10 ranking and F4 2 years ago
PG - who 2 years ago started for & led team in minutes for a top 10 team
Wing - who started for middle of the pack P5 school
Wing - who was the #1 3-pt shooter (based on %) in the portal, and played for a High-Mid-Major
Wing - who was the best player for a P5 school ranked in top 25 much of the year
PF - who started for an ACC NIT team
C - who was Defensive POY in mid-major conference
C - who started for middle of the pack P5 school as a FR
And Almonor, who well is the 9th guy, so anything you get from him is just a bonus.
I doubt between all 8 of those teams listed above, they can't come up with a combined group of transfer credentials much better than these 8.
To me Chandler is a wild card. Seems some have said he is progressing slowly and still behind.
Good points. I used "bad season" on the heels of Gary Parrish's summary. I would say that any team under .500 is a bad season.
Memphis- that was a par year
UCF- I would agree that they had a decent year considering the circumstances you mentioned
St. Johns- a step in the right direction under Pitino
NC State- if not for their tourney runs it would have been a par year for them
