Alabama basketball observation.

[Montana81]

I was looking at South Carolina’s stats heading into tuesdays game and Alabama kind of caught my eye. The bits i’ve watched of bama they really haven’t been that impressive to me.

They’re 12-6 but the computers love them. So i looked a little closer.

They’ve played 11 games against power competition and are 5-6 in those games with a total margin of +3. That’s being carried by a 27 point blowout of our upcoming opponent south carolina. They have losses to arizona by 13, tennessee by 20, ohio state by 11.

In their 7 non power 5 games they’re 7-0 with a total margin of +254 or 36.3 points per game!

Alabama has basically tricked the computers into thinking theyre elite despite a mediocre win loss record by running the score up against the outmatched opponents on their schedule.

I’m not saying they’re dog piss, but they’re closer to a bubble team than a title contender. And as much I love using Kenpom, Torvik, Sagarin as a measuring stick this is a good example of how that doesn’t always work.

 

[Montana81]

By comparison we’ve played 9 games against power 5 competition, are 7-2 with a +72 margin or 8 points per game.

Against our 8 non power 5 opponents we’re 7-1 with an average margin of 21.5.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I'm not really sure it's tricking anything tho.

Here's the thing. Those 7 non power 5 games still count. While I agree that at some point you have to show the ability to beat or be competitive in games vs top competition, those games vs lower competition the fact of the matter is they just did better in those games compared to other teams facing those same scrubs. You do that multiple times and it has to count for something.

They beat Missouri by 18 at home. We beat Missouri by 13 at home.
They beat South Carolina by 27 at home. I don't know what we are going to do vs them but I'm certain on the road that line is only going to be 3-5 points.

These things should count. I completely understand why people would want to dismiss Alabama but I'd caution against that. I think they will be competing close to the top of the SEC this season. They have too good of an offense to not be.

 

[The_Answer1313]

The beauty about all of this is..........they are going to play these teams. The SEC is good this season. If they don't perform and win big games, they will eventually fall down.

 

[The_Answer1313]

On another note this is why UK doesn't look quite as good in these systems.

You are up by 20-25 on UGA but only win by 9 in the end.

This is all based on points per possession scored and points per possession given up. But it's been shown time and time again that margin of victory matters more than actual W/L record.

 

[The_Answer1313]

It's a good discussion to be had tho

Maybe these systems even after accounting for SOS are weighing those games too heavily. But maybe not.

 

[Montana81]

On alabama’s offense. Just looking at points per game they’re averaging almost 20 points per game more against non power 5 opponents than their power 5 competition.

Kentucky by comparison.

Against non power 5: 91.5
Against power 5: 91.6

I think you’re right about not writing bama off. But neither am i scared of them and do think they’re overrated a little by the computers.

And i’m loving the fact that we’ve been able to continue scoring this way against the better competition on our schedule as well as the cupcakes.

 

[Montana81]

On another note this is why UK doesn't look quite as good in these systems.

You are up by 20-25 on UGA but only win by 9 in the end.

This is all based on points per possession scored and points per possession given up. But it's been shown time and time again that margin of victory matters more than actual W/L record.

I agree. I don’t like the fact that we seem to let up on teams. But I’m also thinking we might be under valued a little because we’ve been easing up once the games were clearly in hand.

 

[CatWhistle]

My eyes don’t lie. Alabama is big ol’ orangutan red butt cheeks.

 

[The_Answer1313]

It's going to be interesting to see either way.

They got Auburn next up at home. So it's not going to get any easier for them lol

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Hope they beat Auburn. We need them to lose a game.

Alabama is probably all the OP said and more but that doesn't mean they won't finish in top 4 of sec alongside UT, UK and AU.

 

[JonathanW]

I'm not really sure it's tricking anything tho.

Here's the thing. Those 7 non power 5 games still count. While I agree that at some point you have to show the ability to beat or be competitive in games vs top competition, those games vs lower competition the fact of the matter is they just did better in those games compared to other teams facing those same scrubs. You do that multiple times and it has to count for something.

They beat Missouri by 18 at home. We beat Missouri by 13 at home.
They beat South Carolina by 27 at home. I don't know what we are going to do vs them but I'm certain on the road that line is only going to be 3-5 points.

These things should count. I completely understand why people would want to dismiss Alabama but I'd caution against that. I think they will be competing close to the top of the SEC this season. They have too good of an offense to not be.

Should non-power games count? Absolutely!
Should they count as much? Yes and no. With regard to winning and losing they should, in fact losing one of those should be worse than losing a power 5 (assuming the P5 is rated better than the non-P5), and even winning a close one vs non-P5 should be worse than winning close one vs P5. The DIFFERENCE though is a 40pt win should not be worth much more than a 20pt win. Past say 15 points, the weighting of the win margin should progressively go down. Like if we went and played that team that lost by 100 points (that looked worse than middle schoolers) and beat them by 100+ we would make a huge leap in many rankings (probably including the NET), and that shouldn’t be the case.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I'm not sure how NET handles that stuff but I know with Kenpom there is a diminishing return.

Like the difference between a 20 point win and 10 point win is greater than the difference between say a 30 point win and 20 point win. Eventually I believe there's even a point where it's capped and the difference is zero.

 

[G-PIP]

Alabama is probably all the OP said and more but that doesn't mean they won't finish in top 4 of sec alongside UT, UK and AU.

I think if we look at Alabama’s shot chart game after game we'll see the reason why you may be right.

 

[Aike]

It's a good discussion to be had tho

Maybe these systems even after accounting for SOS are weighing those games too heavily. But maybe not.

I’m biased but I think these systems do a pretty good job of showing how teams compare.

You still have to beat the right teams to earn your seed. But most teams either slip in the ratings as schedule gets tougher, or they start winning some games.

Teams who hold up well in the ratings through the end of the season should be considered dangerous, regardless of win/loss record, imo.

 

[Montana81]

I’m biased but I think these systems do a pretty good job of showing how teams compare.

You still have to beat the right teams to earn your seed. But most teams either slip in the ratings as schedule gets tougher, or they start winning some games.

Teams who hold up well in the ratings through the end of the season should be considered dangerous, regardless of win/loss record, imo.

agree with that last point. like answer said, we’ll see how it all plays out, but I expect bama to continue slipping.

 

[Aike]

agree with that last point. like answer said, we’ll see how it all plays out, but I expect bama to continue slipping.

Might point out that Tennessee and Arizona both have top 5 defenses. Matchups may drive a lot of Alabama’s performance.

I’m not sure I feel super confident in our ability to shut them down. Would anticipate a shootout.

 

[fatguy87]

Might point out that Tennessee and Arizona both have top 5 defenses. Matchups may drive a lot of Alabama’s performance.

I’m not sure I feel super confident in our ability to shut them down. Would anticipate a shootout.

It should be fun! First to 110 wins lol

 

[The_Answer1313]

UK Alabama would be fun

Fast tempo teams. Great offenses. So-so defenses

So it'll probably be like 75-71 or something LOL