Aike Model Update - 12/1/24

[Aike]

Here’s how we’re looking as feast week comes to a close. Reminder that a perfect score is 6.0.

1. Auburn 4.89
2. Gonzaga 4.22
3. Tennessee 4.08
4. Kansas 3.57
5. Duke 3.33
6. Kentucky 3.25
7. Cincinnati 2.72
8. Ohio St 2.66
9. Pittsburgh 2.478
10. Marquette 2.476
11. Iowa At 2.4753
12. Connecticut 2.4750
13. Houston 2.37
14. Mississippi St 2.27
15. Florida 2.22
16. Michigan 2.16
17. Penn St 2.14
18. Texas Tech 2.12
19. Baylor 2.06
20. Alabama 1.99
21. Georgia 1.98
22. Arkansas 1.97
23. UCLA 1.94
24. Nevada 1.8271
25. BYU 1.8269
26. Louisville 1.823
29. Mississippi 1.65
31. St John’s 1.60
35. UNC 1.39

 

[ukcatz12]

5. Duke 3.33
6. Kentucky 3.25

I never knew math and statistics had such an anti-UK bias. They've hated us for years and this is further proof.

 

[Aike]

I’ve got us -5.5 vs. Clemson on a neutral court. Would make us a very slight favorite at Clemson.

 

[EliteBlue]

Ohio State statistically showing much better than i would have expected. Be interesting to keep an eye on where they are and if it holds leading into our matchup with them.

Top 5 looks pretty dead on from what I’ve seen so far after all the holiday events.

 

[uky8unc5]

I’ve got us -5.5 vs. Clemson on a neutral court. Would make us a very slight favorite at Clemson.

No odds published yet. But (like you) I do not see us getting points.
I have a hunch we open -3

 

[$Z71$]

No odds published yet. But (like you) I do not see us getting points.
I have a hunch we open -3

Opening line will most likely be 1 or a pickem.

 

[Aike]

No odds published yet. But (like you) I do not see us getting points.
I have a hunch we open -3

Clemson is historically a tough place to play. I would honestly set it at like -1. Probably won’t happen. Probably open more like you say.

 

[Richard Cory]

Here’s how we’re looking as feast week comes to a close. Reminder that a perfect score is 6.0.

1. Auburn 4.89
2. Gonzaga 4.22
3. Tennessee 4.08
4. Kansas 3.57
5. Duke 3.33
6. Kentucky 3.25
7. Cincinnati 2.72
8. Ohio St 2.66
9. Pittsburgh 2.478
10. Marquette 2.476
11. Iowa At 2.4753
12. Connecticut 2.4750
13. Houston 2.37
14. Mississippi St 2.27
15. Florida 2.22
16. Michigan 2.16
17. Penn St 2.14
18. Texas Tech 2.12
19. Baylor 2.06
20. Alabama 1.99
21. Georgia 1.98
22. Arkansas 1.97
23. UCLA 1.94
24. Nevada 1.8271
25. BYU 1.8269
26. Louisville 1.823
29. Mississippi 1.65
31. St John’s 1.60
35. UNC 1.39

Hate to see that we regressed slightly in the numbers and Kansas increased theirs so much. However, nice to see UNC drop significantly.

 

[Aike]

Hate to see that we regressed slightly in the numbers and Kansas increased theirs so much. However, nice to see UNC drop significantly.

Long season. I would say it’s nice that we’ve stayed at 3+ with a fairly weak schedule. Showing a lot of maturity, consistently taking care of business.

Would honestly be thrilled if we could maintain a 3+ all season. Teams at that level are clear title contenders.

In 22 and 23, nobody was a 3 at the end of the year.

I think UConn was 3+ last year. Don’t have it in front of me.

Back in 2019, Gonzaga, UVA, and Duke hovered around 3+ all year. I think we were as high as 5th overall that year after beating Auburn at home, but I don’t believe our score was 3+ even then.

 

[Richard Cory]

We'll get good test this month.
Gonzaga will get a whole week to prepare just for us.
Clemson - ?
Gonzaga - 4.22 downward trend
Ohio State - 2.66 upward trend
Louisville - 1.823 upward trend

 

[Aike]

We'll get good test this month.
Gonzaga will get a whole week to prepare just for us.
Clemson - ?
Gonzaga - 4.22 downward trend
Ohio State - 2.66 upward trend
Louisville - 1.823 upward trend

Clemson is around 1.35. Kind of team that should win a tournament game. Playing at their place, it’s basically a Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight level game. Gonzaga closer to FF level on a “neutral” court.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

Littlejohn worth about 5 pts

 

[Fancatstik]

I've said it before and I'll say it again this model would be greater if SOS was factored into it. I think you've mentioned it doesn't.

 

[Richard Cory]

Long season. I would say it’s nice that we’ve stayed at 3+ with a fairly weak schedule. Showing a lot of maturity, consistently taking care of business.

That sounds good to me and hopefully they keep it up. Hopefully we can drag Gonzaga's numbers down at the end of this week.

Clemson is around 1.35. Kind of team that should win a tournament game. Playing at their place, it’s basically a Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight level game. Gonzaga closer to FF level on a “neutral” court.

It looks like Clemson's best win is against PSU (2.14) but they also haven't lost since their first game of the season. Home court advantage does typically seem to give an edge in College BB.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I figure we are a 1 point dog vs Clemson.

 

[Mike-D]

I figure we are a 1 point dog vs Clemson.

math I looked at had us -1.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

ESPN has Clemson as a slight favorite at 50.6 % chance of winning. KENPOM KY 12
Clemson 25

 

[Aike]

math I looked at had us -1.

I’ve got it close to -1

 

[TucsonCat]

I wish rankings would use signicant digits, round, and rank with ties.
Everyone should be tied 9th and no one at 10-12.
Might help understand how did we not lose but still drop phenomenon.
Fans should think more in tiers than sequence.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I wish rankings would use signicant digits, round, and rank with ties.
Everyone should be tied 9th and no one at 10-12.
Might help understand how did we not lose but still drop phenomenon.
Fans should think more in tiers than sequence.

Yeah that's why a lot of times people will quote say Kenpom and say we are X ranked.

In actuality tho, we shouldn't be too interested in "rank" but rather the efficiency margin number which would show exactly how close or how far teams are from one another.

Also rankings at the top........there's just not much separating teams. I think when people see Team A 5th and Team B 15th they think it's some significant gap and most of the time it just isn't.

That's why when people talk about where we are in polls and whatnot and someone says we are definitely top 10 and others are like nah we are more like 11-15, I'm just thinking well yeah valid arguments could be made for both.

Polls are good. Computer rankings are great and I feel they give a somewhat accurate representation when looking at it as a whole. But at the end of the day, it's still a game being played by humans. We'll have games where we overperform our ranking and games we underperform our ranking. The models are still useful, but there's limitations on the accuracy.

 

[BluPappi81]

Here’s how we’re looking as feast week comes to a close. Reminder that a perfect score is 6.0.

1. Auburn 4.89
2. Gonzaga 4.22
3. Tennessee 4.08
4. Kansas 3.57
5. Duke 3.33
6. Kentucky 3.25
7. Cincinnati 2.72
8. Ohio St 2.66
9. Pittsburgh 2.478
10. Marquette 2.476
11. Iowa At 2.4753
12. Connecticut 2.4750
13. Houston 2.37
14. Mississippi St 2.27
15. Florida 2.22
16. Michigan 2.16
17. Penn St 2.14
18. Texas Tech 2.12
19. Baylor 2.06
20. Alabama 1.99
21. Georgia 1.98
22. Arkansas 1.97
23. UCLA 1.94
24. Nevada 1.8271
25. BYU 1.8269
26. Louisville 1.823
29. Mississippi 1.65
31. St John’s 1.60
35. UNC 1.39

Perhaps you’ve shared this before but can you summarize your methodology? Appreciate the work you put into this.

 

[Aike]

Perhaps you’ve shared this before but can you summarize your methodology? Appreciate the work you put into this.

It’s an ordinal logistic regression model using several years of data from past tournament teams.

Response variable is 0-6, for how many wins a team achieved in the tournament.

Explanatory variables are various regular season metrics.

The score is a prediction of how many games a team will win in the tournament. So a team with a score of 3 would roughly be expected to make the Elite Eight, on average.

 

[Aike]

Yeah that's why a lot of times people will quote say Kenpom and say we are X ranked.

In actuality tho, we shouldn't be too interested in "rank" but rather the efficiency margin number which would show exactly how close or how far teams are from one another.

Also rankings at the top........there's just not much separating teams. I think when people see Team A 5th and Team B 15th they think it's some significant gap and most of the time it just isn't.

That's why when people talk about where we are in polls and whatnot and someone says we are definitely top 10 and others are like nah we are more like 11-15, I'm just thinking well yeah valid arguments could be made for both.

Polls are good. Computer rankings are great and I feel they give a somewhat accurate representation when looking at it as a whole. But at the end of the day, it's still a game being played by humans. We'll have games where we overperform our ranking and games we underperform our ranking. The models are still useful, but there's limitations on the accuracy.

By my math currently, the number 5 team would be favored by 3 points vs. the number 15 team on a neutral floor.

Basically one extra stop and score, and it’s close to even. That’s how tight these teams are, and why predicting is impossible but fun.

Edit: I worded that funny. I meant that one possession of the 5 team not hitting their average production + one extra possession of the 15 team hitting theirs would close most of the gap. Probably easier to just say, “make one more shot” 😁.