Aike’s new and improved final full season blended model - 3/19/25

[Aike]

1. Auburn 3.88
2. Duke 3.67
3. Florida 3.04
4. Tennessee 2.90
5. Gonzaga 2.84
6. Houston 2.77
7. Arizona 2.67
8. Iowa St 2.63
9. Alabama 2.53
10. Texas Tech 2.48
11. Kentucky 2.24
12. Missouri 2.12
13. Maryland 2.10
14. UConn 2.09
15. BYU 2.081
16. Kansas 2.079
17. Pursue 2.05
18. Michigan St 2.007
19. St John’s 2.005
20. Mississippi St 1.91
21. UCLA 1.89
22. Clemson 1.84
23. Michigan 1.76
24. Marquette 1.65
25. Mississippi 1.62
26. Xavier 1.60
27. Oregon 1.59
28. Georgia 1.56
29. Arkansas 1.52
30. Louisville 1.51
31. Wisconsin 1.50
32. Vanderbilt 1.451
33. North Carolina 1.450
34. Baylor 1.38
36. Oklahoma 1.36
37. Texas A&M 1.35
38. Illinois 1.31
39. Utah St 1.28
44. VCU 1.25
45. St. Mary’s 1.18
46. Creighton 1.17
50. Colorado St 1.05
53. Memphis 0.96
55. UCSD 0.94
58. Drake 0.87
62. New Mexico 0.82
83. McNeese 0.50
88. Lipscomb 0.440
89. Liberty 0.4387
90. Yale 0.4385
91. Grand Canyon 0.432
98. Akron 0.382
99. Troy 0.379
116. UNC-Wilmington 0.254
117. High Point 0.251
134. Wofford 0.17
140. Robert Morris 0.15
147. Bryant 0.14
161. Montana 0.11
172. Omaha 0.10
204. MSM
235. Norfolk St 0.05
276. SIU -Edward 0.03
291. Alabama St 0.02

 

[podgejeff_]

Am I correct in remembering you saying anything above a 2 was a contender? Or was it a 3?

 

[gbl97]

Gonzaga's tournament performance will be a good data point for the importance of metrics vs. win-loss record.

 

[Aike]

Am I correct in remembering you saying anything above a 2 was a contender? Or was it a 3?

I would say 2, only because the worst champion I’ve had was a 2+. A 2 is Sweet 16 quality, and once you get to the Sweet 16 anything is “possible.”

That said, the field is more stacked than usual this year, so I would consider the low 2s as long shots. Can change a little based on draw.

Auburn, Duke, Florida are the clear favorites. Bama in the mix. Probably Houston. Anyone else needs to get lucky or just play their tails off.

 

[Aike]

Gonzaga's tournament performance will be a good data point for the importance of metrics vs. win-loss record.

People say that every year about them. Eventually they will miss the Sweet 16 and prove everyone right.

 

[CrimsonCats]

Gonzaga's tournament performance will be a good data point for the importance of metrics vs. win-loss record.

I’m not actually sure it will say much. Since they got an 8 seed, that likely second round matchup with Houston will put them against a team that has even better metrics than they do even if they are top 10 in a lot of models. Losing to one of the top 4-5 teams in the country by almost any measure wouldn’t dismiss the possibility that they’re pretty good.

 

[gbl97]

I’m not actually sure it will say much. Since they got an 8 seed, that likely second round matchup with Houston will put them against a team that has even better metrics than they do even if they are top 10 in a lot of models. Losing to one of the top 4-5 teams in the country by almost any measure wouldn’t dismiss the possibility that they’re pretty good.

Good point.

 

[gbl97]

The buzz this afternoon is that Creighton was severely underseeded. By the metrics above, they should have been an 11 seed (not a 9).

 

[Aike]

The buzz this afternoon is that Creighton was severely underseeded. By the metrics above, they should have been an 11 seed (not a 9).

Buzz yesterday was that UL was underseeded.