ADVERTISEMENT

Aike’s Model Update - 01/16/25

Aike

All-American
Mar 18, 2002
26,876
41,554
113
We’re up a tick after topping ATM.

1. Auburn 4.82
2. Duke 3.44
3. Tennessee 3.23
4. Houston 3.11
5. Iowa St 3.08
6. Kansas 2.92
7. Michigan 2.88
8. UConn 2.74
9. Arizona 2.60
10. Gonzaga 2.58
11. Kentucky 2.52
12. Texas Tech 2.39
13. Mississippi St 2.38
14. Alabama 2.34
15. Florida 2.29
16. Mississippi 2.23
17. Marquette 2.16
18. Purdue 2.14
19. Maryland 2.05
20. Michigan St 1.96
21. St. John’s 1.82
22. Illinois 1.80
23. Oregon 1.76
24. Missouri 1.73
25. Georgia 1.72
27. Vanderbilt 1.61
28. Ohio St 1.59
30. Clemson 1.58
31. Arkansas 1.51
34. BYU 1.46
37. Louisville 1.35
38. Texas 1.34
39. Texas A&M 1.31
42. N Carolina 1.26
43. Oklahoma 1.21
59. LSU 0.85
68. Indiana 0.66
93. S Carolina 0.36
 
The difference between #1 Auburn and #2 Duke is about the same as #2 Duke and #19 Maryland…. I get that they’re talented and deep, but is there some weird metrics calculation that skyrockets them compared to everyone else?
 
The difference between #1 Auburn and #2 Duke is about the same as #2 Duke and #19 Maryland…. I get that they’re talented and deep, but is there some weird metrics calculation that skyrockets them compared to everyone else?
If you don’t come ready to play they will beat the brakes off of you. That’s about it.

They’ve shown that they are gettable. Just better come ready.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CatOfDaVille
For the record, these numbers are saying that Auburn should be a 3 point favorite over Duke on a neutral court.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EliteBlue
If you don’t come ready to play they will beat the brakes off of you. That’s about it.

They’ve shown that they are gettable. Just better come ready.
Auburn is tough AF. This might be the team that gets Pearl his championship if they can get Broome back healthy and playing like he was.

I'm very happy with Pope, but Pearl would have absolutely killed it here.
 
Michigan has talent upfront. They have Wolf/Goldin but aside from them-they have stretches where Roddy Gayle looks to be point shaving and Tre Donaldson will throw the ball into the 5th row. Just crazy empty possessions filled with turnovers. They also are a bad defensive team aside from Goldin blocking some shots. Every Michigan game falls into a pattern-they get a double digit lead looking unbeatable and as if they will win by 30--then they throw the ball away, guys take "get mine" shots and ignore Wolf having the ball--blow the lead--trail--and scramble to regain the lead playing through Wolf and in Big Ten play hold on for a margin that shouldn't have been as close as possible. They are a team you should never gamble on if you do partake in that activity. LOL

Losing to Arkansas at MSG was awful. This loss tonight is unspeakable. Minnesota is a rotting corpse. They are drawing less people than a Calipari fan club meeting in Lexington. It's brutal. Ben Johnson is likely to be fired. Tonight was his first win in his tenure over a ranked team. Big Ten is a 5 bid league that will get 6 and their conference will talk as if they get 11/12 teams in NCAA.
 
Michigan has talent upfront. They have Wolf/Goldin but aside from them-they have stretches where Roddy Gayle looks to be point shaving and Tre Donaldson will throw the ball into the 5th row. Just crazy empty possessions filled with turnovers. They also are a bad defensive team aside from Goldin blocking some shots. Every Michigan game falls into a pattern-they get a double digit lead looking unbeatable and as if they will win by 30--then they throw the ball away, guys take "get mine" shots and ignore Wolf having the ball--blow the lead--trail--and scramble to regain the lead playing through Wolf and in Big Ten play hold on for a margin that shouldn't have been as close as possible. They are a team you should never gamble on if you do partake in that activity. LOL

Losing to Arkansas at MSG was awful. This loss tonight is unspeakable. Minnesota is a rotting corpse. They are drawing less people than a Calipari fan club meeting in Lexington. It's brutal. Ben Johnson is likely to be fired. Tonight was his first win in his tenure over a ranked team. Big Ten is a 5 bid league that will get 6 and their conference will talk as if they get 11/12 teams in NCAA.

Always appreciate your insights, especially on Big 10 teams. Sounds to me like Michigan is doing the fundamentally sound things necessary to make their metrics look great early in the game, then playing loose (if not cheating) deeper into the game. Very interesting.

Almost the opposite of Kentucky, where we usually keep banging on you for 40 minutes and make it hard for you to guard us the whole time.

I’m started to be convinced that a lot of our slow starts are more that teams are prepared for us at tip off, but by some point in the second half they get tired of chasing us into every corner and we hit them with a run.
 
Always appreciate your insights, especially on Big 10 teams. Sounds to me like Michigan is doing the fundamentally sound things necessary to make their metrics look great early in the game, then playing loose (if not cheating) deeper into the game. Very interesting.

Almost the opposite of Kentucky, where we usually keep banging on you for 40 minutes and make it hard for you to guard us the whole time.

I’m started to be convinced that a lot of our slow starts are more that teams are prepared for us at tip off, but by some point in the second half they get tired of chasing us into every corner and we hit them with a run.

I'll give YOU some insights, bub.. TAM is Texas Agriculture and Mechanical..

ATM is something else, and im not talking about cash machines.

gf eat
 
Michigan just lost to Minnesota which was previously 0-5 in the conference. Doubt they are anywhere near a top ten team but comfortably in the top 25.

We lost by 20 to Ohio St. You may be correct, but attempting to rate each team by their worst loss or best win will almost always get you very skewed results.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CrimsonCats
We lost by 20 to Ohio St. You may be correct, but attempting to rate each team by their worst loss or best win will almost always get you very skewed results.

That’s the one game I wish we could have back. The georgia and clemson games…i think we were losing those no matter what. We absolutely crapped the bed against Ohio State.
 
That’s the one game I wish we could have back. The georgia and clemson games…i think we were losing those no matter what. We absolutely crapped the bed against Ohio State.

Our heads weren’t right that day, for whatever reason.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EliteBlue
I'm amazed at how some teams do things that shoot them up the metrics, but they keep losing games. Gonzaga, UConn and Arizona have definitely figured it out, but they are struggling in key areas that cause them to lose games.

Also, Houston is another one that is really high in all the metrics, but they haven't beaten anybody. Their defense is so good that they just smother most of the teams they play and beat them by a sizable margin, but their lack of offense is going to get them beat when they play top shelf teams.

But at some point, Gonzaga is going to take a tumble, they're only good win is Baylor, they've lost to every other team they have played and I don't consider Oregon State a good team.

Hats off to you guys (Aike) that do these metrics though, I know it's a fun thing to do for those that know how to set it up. It's definitely impressive from my point of view, I'd love to learn how to do it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Aike
Kentucky has five top 15 wins. Michigan doesn’t. It isn’t just the one loss to a horrendous Minnesota team.

Kentucky has a better resume than Michigan. Awesome. I don’t think anyone is disputing that.

Michigan has developed a strong statistical profile. Keep losing to teams like Minnesota and that probably won’t hold up. Pretty simple.
 
Y’all might want to prepare yourselves…a whole bunch of teams will have head scratching losses over the next couple minutes.
 
Kentucky has a better resume than Michigan. Awesome. I don’t think anyone is disputing that.

Michigan has developed a strong statistical profile. Keep losing to teams like Minnesota and that probably won’t hold up. Pretty simple.
Agreed. I assume you are posting this to spur discussion. Just giving my opinion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Aike
Agreed. I assume you are posting this to spur discussion. Just giving my opinion.

Yeah it’s all good. I have no trouble believing that Michigan isn’t as good by eye test as this metric would currently indicate.

Over the years I’ve gotten a lot of weird trolls who want to argue incessantly so I’ve probably gotten in the habit of fending that off a bit.

Like in 2023 when people were angry that I was “overrating” UConn but “underrating” Purdue and Alabama.

It’s just math, and it usually holds up pretty well, especially as we get deeper into the season.

Since 2019, these were the final positions going into the tournament of the eventual champion: 2, 3, 10, 4, 1. That 10 was Kansas in 2022, who actually had the 7th best odds due to how the bracket fell.

Summing it up, not a bad idea to pay attention to the teams at the top and consider them contenders. There will be outliers, and teams will still rise and fall until March.
 
Almost the opposite of Kentucky, where we usually keep banging on you for 40 minutes and make it hard for you to guard us the whole time.

I’m started to be convinced that a lot of our slow starts are more that teams are prepared for us at tip off, but by some point in the second half they get tired of chasing us into every corner and we hit them with a run.
I agree and I think it's due to Mark Pope being one of the best adjustment coaches in the game, and most just don't realize it yet. It's a huge advantage and also probably not reflected in metrics.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Aike
I'm amazed at how some teams do things that shoot them up the metrics, but they keep losing games. Gonzaga, UConn and Arizona have definitely figured it out, but they are struggling in key areas that cause them to lose games.

Also, Houston is another one that is really high in all the metrics, but they haven't beaten anybody. Their defense is so good that they just smother most of the teams they play and beat them by a sizable margin, but their lack of offense is going to get them beat when they play top shelf teams.

But at some point, Gonzaga is going to take a tumble, they're only good win is Baylor, they've lost to every other team they have played and I don't consider Oregon State a good team.

Hats off to you guys (Aike) that do these metrics though, I know it's a fun thing to do for those that know how to set it up. It's definitely impressive from my point of view, I'd love to learn how to do it.

I guess one thing I’d say is that if you consistently play “the right way,” you are more likely to put yourself in position to win important games.

Sometimes luck goes one way, like it did with us in 2004, where we won a bunch of close regular season games but lost to UAB.

Sometimes it goes the other way, like us in 2011.

Subconsciously, I think we all give too much credit for close wins, and penalize too much for close losses.

All that being said, what you really want to do is put the hammer down. Don’t even let it be close if you can help it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Digger-Cat
The NCAA Tourney is going to have 20 plus teams that can win the title and should be highly competitive no matter who is playing who.
 
Always appreciate your insights, especially on Big 10 teams. Sounds to me like Michigan is doing the fundamentally sound things necessary to make their metrics look great early in the game, then playing loose (if not cheating) deeper into the game. Very interesting.

Almost the opposite of Kentucky, where we usually keep banging on you for 40 minutes and make it hard for you to guard us the whole time.

I’m started to be convinced that a lot of our slow starts are more that teams are prepared for us at tip off, but by some point in the second half they get tired of chasing us into every corner and we hit them with a run.
Aike, I responded to your email and sorry for late response. Haven't been online much in the past two months.

Michigan has moments--Danny Wolf is outstanding. They get a great shot every time he touches the ball. Then the guards/wings get jealous and start to "Create"-it's awful. Not only is it awful to watch, they limit Wolf and Goldin-who mainly scores his pts off Wolf's great pick and roll reads and drop offs for Goldin's dunks. If they hit some 3's-they look like a top 10 team-but then comes the Turnover Orgy which happens the second Wolf stops getting the ball and Donaldson/Gayle start wanting to "create". Watched them play Iowa--they were destroying them by as much as 21 and then blew the entire lead and trailed by 4 late in 2nd Half only to pull it out as they played through Wolf. Saw their Arkansas game--a debacle where they dominated--threw the ball all over--then took over the game only to piss it away due to some awful decisions. Last night was a game that was poorly coached.

Can't emphasize enough how awful Minnesota is. They are a terrible program, led by a neophyte HC who had to be told by the Administration to quit having his former HS coach who is on the Staff run his huddles, do all the interviews, etc....he can't recruit, he can't coach offense, and he chalks it all up to NIL. Minnesota used to have a great home court advantage at the "Barn" and now you can't get over 5000 people to attend and most nights it's around 3500 actually there. Just awful. They can't shoot. Can't defend. They just suck. Michigan "played with their food" again and still had a chance to win in regulation but Tre Donaldson went coast to coast for a falling layup attempt instead of passing to Wolf who would've gotten them a good shot-likely won the game. Then in OT--they bricked FT's/lost on a 40 ft desperation shot.

Roddy Gayle is on the take. I'm convinced he left Ohio State because he feared Bradshaw being looked into for point shaving could be traced to him as well. He's a guy who was a really promising player 3 yrs ago and now looks like trash. Donaldson looks decent because he's in the Big Ten. At Auburn he'd not play. My advice to Donaldson is to skip Basketball and go back to FB-he was an elite FB prospect as a Safety and could play at Michigan if he chose that path.

Kentucky makes adjustments and Pope/Staff have an NBA feel in terms of starting out with an idea--reading how the game is going and then attacking based on how the game is going-which is what most CBB coaches don't even attempt to do. They just do "what we do" with system approach. Michigan has guys who look like they literally hate that Danny Wolf could get Jokic numbers in CBB and just feel "it's my time to shine" and play like complete D'heads for at least 5 mins a Half in games I've sat through all 40--I'd give them 15 to 18 mins a game of just throwing the ball all over, being careless, not rebounding, allowing straight line drives, etc....

I'd rank the Big Ten right now as Michigan St (by a wide margin ahead of rest of Conference), Oregon/Illinois lumped together, Purdue/Wisconsin, Michigan, then the crazy MF'er division of teams who depending on where you play them and what night their top guys decide to show up can get a win-be it Indiana, Northwestern, Rutgers, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio St--who has regressed this year despite UK win and I will mention Joel Golden Boy Justus joined them...lol---it's just ugly to watch. I mean Iowa giving up 116 pts to a Greg Gard team should ban them from Tournament.

One thing to point out-there was a recent article talking how Big Tens "master" their scheduling. Specifically brought up Iowa and how they literally suck but have scheduled in a manner that somehow the computer numbers spit back that they like them and meanwhile every team they play usually gets their best offensive game and they couldn't defend a lamp post.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Aike
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT