Aike’s Model - 01/19/25 Update

[Aike]

Improved a bit through the week with our split. A lot of teams starting to get dinged up and come back to earth in conference play.

Only 3 remaining at 3+, which is what we saw in 2019 going into the tournament. Of those three, one was the champion (Virginia) and the other two lost in the Elite Eight (Duke and Gonzaga).

Latest and Greatest:

1. Auburn 4.62
2. Duke 3.42
3. Tennessee 3.30
4. Houston 2.88
5. Iowa St 2.84
6. Kansas 2.68
7. Michigan 2.64
8. Gonzaga 2.55
9. UConn 2.53
10. Kentucky 2.50
11. Arizona 2.44
12. Texas Tech 2.37
13. Mississippi St 2.36
14. Alabama 2.30
15. Florida 2.29
16. Mississippi 2.24
17. Purdue 2.14
18. St John’s 2.07
19. Marquette 1.98
20. Maryland 1.93
21. Michigan St 1.91
22. Missouri 1.824
23. Illinois 1.816
24. Vanderbilt 1.748
25. Georgia 1.743
27. Clemson 1.64
33. Ohio St 1.44
35. Arkansas 1.40
36. BYU 1.37
39. Texas 1.34
40. Texas A&M 1.32
41. Louisville 1.30
43. Oklahoma 1.18
44. N Carolina 1.17
58. LSU 0.86
65. Indiana 0.71
94. S Carolina 0.36

 

[Aike]

There are still 49 teams rated at 1+. This implies that they would be expected to win 1 tournament game. Obviously only 32 teams can actually win 1+ games. Going to make for a brutal tournament.

 

[Oldbluefart]

Aike: two teams that are winning and gaining confidence are UL and Michigan St.
As much as I hate to admit it, but UL is rolling. People will say the ACC is weak and it is, but winning gives you confidence and a good team that does not bring their A game come tourney time, teams like these can break someones season while that one win make theirs.

Give me Kerr healthy as a healthy Carr and let's see what March brings us.

 

[B.B.H.]

Jim Calhoun must have performed some type of voodoo that short circuits computer algorithms. (joking)

 

[Aike]

Aike: two teams that are winning and gaining confidence are UL and Michigan St.
As much as I hate to admit it, but UL is rolling. People will say the ACC is weak and it is, but winning gives you confidence and a good team that does not bring their A game come tourney time, teams like these can break someones season while that one win make theirs.

Give me Kerr healthy as a healthy Carr and let's see what March brings us.

Good points. Interesting to me that UL is basically staying around 40 in my model despite their long win streak. Speaks to the weakness of that league.

I’ve thought they were a dangerous team all season though. PK was a great hire for them.


Maybe another team to keep an eye on is St John’s. Does Rick have one last hurrah in him?

 

[BlueSince92]

.Maybe another team to keep an eye on is St John’s. Does Rick have one last hurrah in him?

I’ve had my eye on St. John’s and been thinking those same thoughts for a while now. That second week in February is gonna be a big reveal.

 

[TucsonCat]

Your equation hates the Big 10.
Illinois, Purdue, wisconsin and Michigan state lower than net.
Not a critique, just an observation.
Oregon is the one I can't understand
All the computers hate them.
8-2 against net quad 1.

 

[Aike]

Your equation hates the Big 10.
Illinois, Purdue, wisconsin and Michigan state lower than net.
Not a critique, just an observation.
Oregon is the one I can't understand
All the computers hate them.
8-2 against net quad 1.

I’d say hate is a little strong. Purdue is on an uptick, for instance.

When was the last time a Big 10 team won the championship? Might be a clue that that conference’s style of play, in general, isn’t conducive to winning it all.

Or maybe it’s just a fluke? Hard to say.

I think Oregon was 26 this week. Getting run by Illinois and losing at home to Purdue is probably anchoring them some.

But still, with the quality of the field this year, Oregon at 26 is probably just outside the dark horse contender list at this moment in time.