Aike’s Model - 01/19/25 Update

[Aike]

Improved a bit through the week with our split. A lot of teams starting to get dinged up and come back to earth in conference play.

Only 3 remaining at 3+, which is what we saw in 2019 going into the tournament. Of those three, one was the champion (Virginia) and the other two lost in the Elite Eight (Duke and Gonzaga).

Latest and Greatest:

1. Auburn 4.62
2. Duke 3.42
3. Tennessee 3.30
4. Houston 2.88
5. Iowa St 2.84
6. Kansas 2.68
7. Michigan 2.64
8. Gonzaga 2.55
9. UConn 2.53
10. Kentucky 2.50
11. Arizona 2.44
12. Texas Tech 2.37
13. Mississippi St 2.36
14. Alabama 2.30
15. Florida 2.29
16. Mississippi 2.24
17. Purdue 2.14
18. St John’s 2.07
19. Marquette 1.98
20. Maryland 1.93
21. Michigan St 1.91
22. Missouri 1.824
23. Illinois 1.816
24. Vanderbilt 1.748
25. Georgia 1.743
27. Clemson 1.64
33. Ohio St 1.44
35. Arkansas 1.40
36. BYU 1.37
39. Texas 1.34
40. Texas A&M 1.32
41. Louisville 1.30
43. Oklahoma 1.18
44. N Carolina 1.17
58. LSU 0.86
65. Indiana 0.71
94. S Carolina 0.36

 

[Aike]

There are still 49 teams rated at 1+. This implies that they would be expected to win 1 tournament game. Obviously only 32 teams can actually win 1+ games. Going to make for a brutal tournament.

 

[Oldbluefart]

Aike: two teams that are winning and gaining confidence are UL and Michigan St.
As much as I hate to admit it, but UL is rolling. People will say the ACC is weak and it is, but winning gives you confidence and a good team that does not bring their A game come tourney time, teams like these can break someones season while that one win make theirs.

Give me Kerr healthy as a healthy Carr and let's see what March brings us.

 

[B.B.H.]

Jim Calhoun must have performed some type of voodoo that short circuits computer algorithms. (joking)