They say it every year after we flame out of the NCAA Tournament.
"We only have won 8 titles in 100 years."
This is fallacy, and it's an audacious fallacy at that because it is not correct historically.
The NCAA tournament began in 1939. Between 1939 and 1998, UK won 7 national titles. That's 7 titles in 59 years, or one every 8.4 years. Between 1948 and 1998, UK's title to year ration was one title for every 7.1 years. If you remove the probation/forfeit years, it's actually one title every 6.7 years.
Between 1939 and 2012, UK won 8 titles, or one title every 9.1 years (8.6 years if you remove probation years or the 1954 season).
So even at our worst, we're winning a national title every 9.1 years before 2013 ( or 8.8 years if you remove the probation/forfeited seasons).
We're coming up on that actual historical average right now, in fact. One title for every 9.1 years, and it's been ten years since our last title. Based on historical precedent, it's time for a title.
Factor in the reality that UK was on probation for two years during the Pitino Era, and refused to participate in the 1954 NCAA Tournament - a season where they were undefeated. Remove those three years from factoring into the title ratio, and between 1939 and 2012, UK averaged a title once every 8.8 years.
Historically, UK is averaging:
1. An Elite Eight every 2.1 years (or an Elite Eight every other year). Historically, finishing with an Elite Eight is expected every other year.
2. A Final Four every 4.7 years.
3. A National Title Game appearance every 6.6 years.
4. A National Title every 9.9 years (1939-2021 *counting the Covid year, the two probation years, and the forfeited tournament year).
***Also, some of our fans are quick to point out the "gaps" between titles, but they rarely point out what resulted from those gaps, which was this: multiple head coaching changes happened *because* of the gaps.
The gap between 1978 and 1996 saw *three* different head coaches (one was fired and one was pressured out).
The gap between 1998 and 2012 also saw *three* different head coaches (one was fired and one was pressured out).
These coaching changes came because the gaps were not acceptable by Kentucky's historical standards and norms.
All this is to say, we need to get our actual history correct when we're making arguments. The "8 titles in 100 years" is a weak fallacy.
Our historical standard of excellence is better than that.
"We only have won 8 titles in 100 years."
This is fallacy, and it's an audacious fallacy at that because it is not correct historically.
The NCAA tournament began in 1939. Between 1939 and 1998, UK won 7 national titles. That's 7 titles in 59 years, or one every 8.4 years. Between 1948 and 1998, UK's title to year ration was one title for every 7.1 years. If you remove the probation/forfeit years, it's actually one title every 6.7 years.
Between 1939 and 2012, UK won 8 titles, or one title every 9.1 years (8.6 years if you remove probation years or the 1954 season).
So even at our worst, we're winning a national title every 9.1 years before 2013 ( or 8.8 years if you remove the probation/forfeited seasons).
We're coming up on that actual historical average right now, in fact. One title for every 9.1 years, and it's been ten years since our last title. Based on historical precedent, it's time for a title.
Factor in the reality that UK was on probation for two years during the Pitino Era, and refused to participate in the 1954 NCAA Tournament - a season where they were undefeated. Remove those three years from factoring into the title ratio, and between 1939 and 2012, UK averaged a title once every 8.8 years.
Historically, UK is averaging:
1. An Elite Eight every 2.1 years (or an Elite Eight every other year). Historically, finishing with an Elite Eight is expected every other year.
2. A Final Four every 4.7 years.
3. A National Title Game appearance every 6.6 years.
4. A National Title every 9.9 years (1939-2021 *counting the Covid year, the two probation years, and the forfeited tournament year).
***Also, some of our fans are quick to point out the "gaps" between titles, but they rarely point out what resulted from those gaps, which was this: multiple head coaching changes happened *because* of the gaps.
The gap between 1978 and 1996 saw *three* different head coaches (one was fired and one was pressured out).
The gap between 1998 and 2012 also saw *three* different head coaches (one was fired and one was pressured out).
These coaching changes came because the gaps were not acceptable by Kentucky's historical standards and norms.
All this is to say, we need to get our actual history correct when we're making arguments. The "8 titles in 100 years" is a weak fallacy.
Our historical standard of excellence is better than that.
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