ACC is overrated

[IL Wildcat]

How is Duke flawed? They're a top 5 offensive and defensive team with 4 1st round picks and a generational talent on their roster coached by a HOFer.

Anything can happen in the tournament but they"ll be the favorites to cut down the nets.

Talent or draft picks doesn't guarantee anything in March DevilFan, you should know that as well as anyone. Williamson is a generational athlete. He's not unstoppable.

Let me tell you how a team could beat Duke. It's not complicated at all. You pack everything into the paint and dare Duke to beat you from the outside. And then you foul them and send them to the line rather than give up anything easy. I don't know if you're aware of this DevilFan, but your Blue Devils are not a good shooting team. Look at the numbers. They don't lie. Duke is #310 in the nation in 3pt shooting, making only 30.9% from 3pt range. Duke is also #275 in the nation in Free Throw shooting, only making 67.6% from the line. Now, if you can't see the flaw here, I can't help you. You take a deep, good shooting, good defensive team who can play solid, fundamental zone defense and you have a recipe for disaster for Duke. The tournament will be filled with teams like that.

Yes, you have talent and NBA draft picks, but you also have a fatal flaw when it comes to winning 6 straight games in a single elimination tournament. That's a fact. Ignore than to your own peril.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Here is the problem with your post. NC St beat Auburn. So where does that put Auburn?

Well, that was a road game for Auburn- its first true road game of the season. I will say, Auburn is a team that is likely a tournament team, but they still have work to do to solidify that. Regardless, you're missing the point of my post. I'm pointing out that the bottom of the ACC is terrible and that same NC State team that just scored 24 points will have 5 gimmes before the end of the regular season. Auburn won't have that. I guarantee you, Bruce Pearl would take NC State's remaining schedule over his own.

 

[DonkeyDwayne]

Well, that was a road game for Auburn- its first true road game of the season. I will say, Auburn is a team that is likely a tournament team, but they still have work to do to solidify that. Regardless, you're missing the point of my post. I'm pointing out that the bottom of the ACC is terrible and that same NC State team that just scored 24 points will have 5 gimmes before the end of the regular season. Auburn won't have that. I guarantee you, Bruce Pearl would take NC State's remaining schedule over his own.

The bottom of every conference is garbage. The mediocre teams of most conferences built their resume by beating nobodies.

 

[Dore95]

The ACC has the top 2 teams in the current KenPom, and then 2 more in the top 10. Add in U of L at 13 and that is 5 teams in the top 13. Not sure how that is "overrated", unless you think KenPom (and every other computer-based rankings model) is total garbage.

 

[The_Answer1313]

The ACC has the top 2 teams in the current KenPom, and then 2 more in the top 10. Add in U of L at 13 and that is 5 teams in the top 13. Not sure how that is "overrated", unless you think KenPom (and every other computer-based rankings model) is total garbage.

Lol thing about that is despite all that Kenpom actually has the ACC as the 3rd best behind both the big 12 and big 10

 

[jwphelps]

all I’ve heard all year is how difficult it is as a conference. Outside of duke and uva, I just don’t see it. There are a slew of teams like Fla St, Va Tech, NC St that are just plain average. Not that good actually.

That conference is always over hyped but when you have your own national network called ESPN what do you expect.

 

[Aike]

I think there are 8 teams that could win the title without anyone being shocked. 3 of those 8 are in the ACC.

I don’t know where it’s rated, but the best teams in the ACC are as good or better than anyone else’s best teams.

Get beyond that and it’s a crapshoot, but it’s like that in every league.

 

[Lumpy 2]

How is Duke flawed? They're a top 5 offensive and defensive team with 4 1st round picks and a generational talent on their roster coached by a HOFer.

Anything can happen in the tournament but they"ll be the favorites to cut down the nets.

In 2018, Duke had 3 first round picks and 1 second round ( Bagley 2, Carter 7, Allen 21 and Trent 37). They lost to Kansas who had 2 second round picks (Graham 34 and Mychailiuk 47). In 2017, Duke had 3 first round picks and the first pick in the second round ( Tatum3, Kennard 12, Giles 20 and Jackson 31). They lost to South Carolina who had 1 second round pick (Thornwell 48).

They've also had those generational talents on their roster before (Bagley, Irving, Jabari Parker etc.) and not won championships. Either those generational players or their HOF coach didn't live up to expectations.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Then, Virginia lost to a SIXTEEN seed, and not on a buzzer beater -- BY 20 POINTS. And Duke failed to make the Final Four with an entire starting five of NBA draft picks. And the conference's third best team, UNC-CHeats, got obliterated by Texas A&M.
r.

But what does that have anything to do with this season?

Despite all of that, Duke and UVA are going to have good odds of winning the title......in Duke's case they might have the best odds.

I have no idea what conference is the best and which is worst, nor do I care because it's individual teams that win titles not conferences. But I wouldn't take three games in the tournament as some evidence the ACC wasn't good last season.

 

[MdWIldcat55]

But what does that have anything to do with this season?

It is the best body of evidence on how a conference might stack up with the rest of the country. Last year, Virginia was over-matched -- 20 point loss --by a 16-seed. UNC was manhandled by Texas A&M. Duke lost to perennial underachiever Kansas. Just like this year, everybody was rating the conference very high based mostly on November and early December games. It turned out to be a mirage.

 

[Aike]

It is the best body of evidence on how a conference might stack up with the rest of the country. Last year, Virginia was over-matched -- 20 point loss --by a 16-seed. UNC was manhandled by Texas A&M. Duke lost to perennial underachiever Kansas. Just like this year, everybody was rating the conference very high based mostly on November and early December games. It turned out to be a mirage.

I don’t really think 2-3 games in March are the best evidence for anything. Best for bragging rights, yes.

 

[The_Answer1313]

It is the best body of evidence on how a conference might stack up with the rest of the country. Last year, Virginia was over-matched -- 20 point loss --by a 16-seed. UNC was manhandled by Texas A&M. Duke lost to perennial underachiever Kansas. Just like this year, everybody was rating the conference very high based mostly on November and early December games. It turned out to be a mirage.

I'm not so sure it's any indication of anything but a small sample of games.

But you do bring up a good point.
These conference ratings........they are all based on non conference games, the majority of which take place in Nov/Dec. Since there's not many non conference games after December, these ratings just stay the same because everyone is playing in conference. So we have very little clue on whether or not teams have changed over the course of the season. And that could be teams just got worse or in the case of KU and MSU this season injuries.

That being said.......I still don't think you can look at it and conclude about conference strength. UVA would have been rated highly no matter what conference they were in last season. The fact they lost to a 16 seed has nothing to do with the fact they were in the ACC. They could have just as well been in the SEC and lost to a 16. Given the amount of games, it was bound to happen at some point.

 

[Dore95]

It is the best body of evidence on how a conference might stack up with the rest of the country. Last year, Virginia was over-matched -- 20 point loss --by a 16-seed. UNC was manhandled by Texas A&M. Duke lost to perennial underachiever Kansas. Just like this year, everybody was rating the conference very high based mostly on November and early December games. It turned out to be a mirage.

UK lost to Kansas St last year in the tournament. Does that mean UK, and the entire SEC, is overrated this year?

 

[Lovebaskelball]

I don't think it is as much over rating the ACC as it is under rating the SEC all the time. The Big Ten and Big 12 always get the royal treatment about how good they are. But the ACC and SEC have the highest winning percentages since the tournament expanded in 1985.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...05/best-conferences-ncaa-tournament-play-1985

 

[DevilFan1989]

Talent or draft picks doesn't guarantee anything in March DevilFan, you should know that as well as anyone. Williamson is a generational athlete. He's not unstoppable.

He's as close to being unstoppable as you can get at the college level. If the only hope that rival fans have is that he randomly just has a bad day one day in the tournament, then that's all you can really ask for if you're Duke.

Let me tell you how a team could beat Duke. It's not complicated at all. You pack everything into the paint and dare Duke to beat you from the outside. And then you foul them and send them to the line rather than give up anything easy. I don't know if you're aware of this DevilFan, but your Blue Devils are not a good shooting team. Look at the numbers. They don't lie. Duke is #310 in the nation in 3pt shooting, making only 30.9% from 3pt range. Duke is also #275 in the nation in Free Throw shooting, only making 67.6% from the line. Now, if you can't see the flaw here, I can't help you. You take a deep, good shooting, good defensive team who can play solid, fundamental zone defense and you have a recipe for disaster for Duke. The tournament will be filled with teams like that.

Yes, Duke is a poor 3 point and FT shooting team but if all you had to do was pack everything in the paint, then why hasn't any team really been able to implement that successfully so far?

You"ll mention Syracuse I'm sure but Duke didn't have Tre Jones or Cam Reddish for that game so that changes things a lot seeing as they're 2 of our best players and Tre is our PG.

Notre Dame and St. John's tried to do exactly what you outlined and they each were destroyed by Duke. It's not that simple.

Yes, you have talent and NBA draft picks, but you also have a fatal flaw when it comes to winning 6 straight games in a single elimination tournament. That's a fact. Ignore than to your own peril.

Duke has had plenty of great shooting teams that have flamed out early in the NCAAT since they played poor defense. I"ll take a great defensive team which plays great team basketball and has 2 of the best shot makers in college over a good shooting team all day.

I'd be more worried if the field of contenders wasn't so weak this year but no one's as good as the past few Villanova teams or that UK and Wisconsin team from 2015.

 

[DevilFan1989]

In 2018, Duke had 3 first round picks and 1 second round ( Bagley 2, Carter 7, Allen 21 and Trent 37). They lost to Kansas who had 2 second round picks (Graham 34 and Mychailiuk 47). In 2017, Duke had 3 first round picks and the first pick in the second round ( Tatum3, Kennard 12, Giles 20 and Jackson 31). They lost to South Carolina who had 1 second round pick (Thornwell 48).

They've also had those generational talents on their roster before (Bagley, Irving, Jabari Parker etc.) and not won championships. Either those generational players or their HOF coach didn't live up to expectations.

Those team played mediocre to bad defense, this team doesn't.

Zion is on a different level than any other OAD Duke has ever had and Tre Jones is our best OAD PG defensively so far.

 

[Blue Bigfoot]

all I’ve heard all year is how difficult it is as a conference. Outside of duke and uva, I just don’t see it. There are a slew of teams like Fla St, Va Tech, NC St that are just plain average. Not that good actually.

Exactly! I was watching Va tech play Louisville, and thinking to myself how the hell they are ranked #11? If they didn't have the mystique of the letters 'ACC' by their names, they wouldn't be in the top 25.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Kentucky was a ten-loss 5-seed last year that actually went a game further in the tournament than their seeding predicted.

If UK had been a #1 seed and was thoroughly dominated by a #16 seed (UVA) or a #2 seed and was totally outclassed by a #7 seed (UNC-CHeats) then I'd say, yeah, its a sign the conference is getting overrated by the committee.

We were expected to win one game but that was before both the 1 seed and 4 seed were knocked out tho.

You are basing this stuff on way too small samples. I mean by your logic us at the 5 seed lost to an 8 seed. Does that mean we were overrated in our seeding and K-state was underrating?

Of course not. It was just one game.

Regardless of UVA being dominated it was 1) just one game and 2) just one team in a conference that contains 16.

 

[Dr. Curmudgeon]

all I’ve heard all year is how difficult it is as a conference. Outside of duke and uva, I just don’t see it. There are a slew of teams like Fla St, Va Tech, NC St that are just plain average. Not that good actually.

They will always overrate the ACC as long as Duke and UNC are a part of it. I do believe the SEC is the most underrated conference and might place the big 12 above all of the P5 conferences.

 

[502 Wildcat]

He's as close to being unstoppable as you can get at the college level. If the only hope that rival fans have is that he randomly just has a bad day one day in the tournament, then that's all you can really ask for if you're Duke.


Yes, Duke is a poor 3 point and FT shooting team but if all you had to do was pack everything in the paint, then why hasn't any team really been able to implement that successfully so far?

You"ll mention Syracuse I'm sure but Duke didn't have Tre Jones or Cam Reddish for that game so that changes things a lot seeing as they're 2 of our best players and Tre is our PG.

Notre Dame and St. John's tried to do exactly what you outlined and they each were destroyed by Duke. It's not that simple.


Duke has had plenty of great shooting teams that have flamed out early in the NCAAT since they played poor defense. I"ll take a great defensive team which plays great team basketball and has 2 of the best shot makers in college over a good shooting team all day.

I'd be more worried if the field of contenders wasn't so weak this year but no one's as good as the past few Villanova teams or that UK and Wisconsin team from 2015.

Here's the thing, you are right in that it's not quite that simple. It's going to take a team packing it in, fouling, and inviting Duke's players to shoot, but the defenders still have to be capable. Teams with respectable length and athleticism, that are also willing to play some junk defense / fundamentally sound zone, are the teams Duke will be particularly vulnerable to. Syracuse, Florida State, and Gonzaga (teams that exposed Duke's flaws) each have some solid length and athleticism.

The true issue is teams generally don't play that way, sans Syracuse and maybe a few others. Duke's advantage over the course of the entire season is that you force teams to play outside of their typical strategy to beat you. Barrett and Zion are both otherworldly athletic. And with Barrett, he has incredible size for his skillset. It's really hard to match up with those two.

But as stated, it's a single elimination tournament, and there will be a lot of teams that will be willing to muck the game up against Duke.

 

[BlueBlood66]

Exactly! I was watching Va tech play Louisville, and thinking to myself how the hell they are ranked #11? If they didn't have the mystique of the letters 'ACC' by their names, they wouldn't be in the top 25.

Probably didn’t help Va Tech was missing their point guard who is the leading scorer.

 

[caneintally]

ACC is a really good conference probably tied for 2nd best this season with Big10 . The SEC is slightly the best for the first time in forever but lets not act like the ACC doesn't have 3 teams who could easily make the final 4 ( Duke , UVA and UNC ) UL is pretty good too along with VT and a few others. I do think the top of the SEC with UK , UT , LSU , Ole miss , Miss St and AU makes it the best conference as AU might be on a slump but I wouldn't be the least bit shocked to find them in an elite 8 .

 

[The_Answer1313]

They will always overrate the ACC as long as Duke and UNC are a part of it. I do believe the SEC is the most underrated conference and might place the big 12 above all of the P5 conferences.

But people on here have been saying how much the Big 12 has been overrated for years now.
Using the same logic that MdWIldcat55 was just using about the ACC being weak since the Big 12 has performed poorly in the tournament relative to their seeding as well.

FWIW there doesn't even seem to be a consensus on exactly what we are talking about here. Conference strength........top to bottom? just the top teams. Because whenever people talk about this stuff they almost always are just referring to the top of these conferences and they completely ignore the bottom teams of even the mid tier teams that didn't make the tournament.

Usually the Big 12 is rated the best conference......but it's not because WVU or OU or Texas or Texas Tech are special.......it's because the bottom of the conference is usually (not this year) wayyy better than the other conference team bottom feeders.

 

[The_Answer1313]

To me the SEC is similar to most of the others.

You have two teams that are clear cut ahead of the pack (UT and UK).
Then you got a second tier of teams that are still very good (Auburn and LSU)

After that, it's mid tier city. The two Miss teams are just 4-4 in the conference. One's projected a 6 and the other a 9. You could also put Bama, Arkansas and Florida in this tier. Teams that have been essentially average through league play.

Then you have dog crap
USC, Missouri, Texas AM, Georgia and Vandy.....all of which are ranked below 90th in Kenpom.

 

[Blue Bigfoot]

UK lost to Kansas St last year in the tournament. Does that mean UK, and the entire SEC, is overrated this year?

Kentucky was a 5 seed, and K-state was a 9 seed. Hardly some massive upset.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Kentucky was a 5 seed, and K-state was a 9 seed. Hardly some massive upset.

The point was that "what does ONE game from ONE team tell you about the strength of an ENTIRE conference"

 

[Blue Bigfoot]

Probably didn’t help Va Tech was missing their point guard who is the leading scorer.

A missing point guard, wouldn't have stopped their front court from being manhandled by Louisville last night.

 

[Lovebaskelball]

....AU might be on a slump but I wouldn't be the least bit shocked to find them in an elite 8 .

I would be shocked, this is AU after all.

 

[The_Answer1313]

AU is missing Wiley.

Lets see what happens when he returns.

FWIW they drop three in a row but one was by a mere 2 points and another by 3.

They dominated Missouri and then Alabama tho after that 3 game losing streak.

I really think Auburn will be fine.

 

[BlueBlood66]

A missing point guard, wouldn't have stopped their front court from being manhandled by Louisville last night.

Probably not... but could have easily made up for the 8 point differential.

 

[Blue Bigfoot]

The point was that "what does ONE game from ONE team tell you about the strength of an ENTIRE conference"

One game? Nothing. But, a history of disparate seed upsets in the tournament, or being highly ranked every year, yet never going far into the tournament is suggestive of being overly ranked and or playing subpar conference opponents.

 

[BlueBlood66]

One game? Nothing. But, a history of disparate seed upsets in the tournament, or being highly ranked every year, yet never going far into the tournament is suggestive of being overly ranked and or playing subpar conference opponents.

The ACC has the most championships and highest winning percentage in the tournament since the 64 team expansion. In recent history it’s mainly Ben the ACC and Big East winning the most in the tournament.

 

[feelthebeirne]

Also, some of these teams have figured out if you play a bunch of cupcakes in non-conference, beat ONE decent team get you record to 15-1 you'll be ranked in the top 20 by conference time. If everyone does it, you'll play a bunch of bad ranked teams (FSU, NC St., V Tech) and when you lose, you won't fall in the rankings. When you win, you'll rise.

Hell, I'll be 65 in May. If I rise, I win !

 

[feelthebeirne]

It's Duke, Tennessee and Gonzaga vs everyone else this year. Who cares which conferences are the strongest.

I agree with your Tennessee and Duke (and a few others) vs. everyone, but I have always had a hard time believing in Gonzaga. I realize they went to the final game a couple years ago, but they have never "broke through' as they say. Now with that being said they will win the whole thing this year.

 

[feelthebeirne]

LOL. I'd take a straight-up bet that none of those three teams makes the Final Four, much less wins it all.

Oh man, if I was still betting (retired) I think I would take that bet ! Do you think the NCAA wants to have a FF without Duke ? No way !!!

 

[feelthebeirne]

They didn't want it three years ago when Oregon upset them, two years ago when South Carolina kicked their ass, or last year when the Chokehawks beat them. Higgins can't be everywhere.

I was hoping you sensed the sarcasm in my statement, or am I missing the sarcasm in yours ?

 

[Lumpy 2]

Those team played mediocre to bad defense, this team doesn't.

Zion is on a different level than any other OAD Duke has ever had and Tre Jones is our best OAD PG defensively so far.

Duke was #9 in Kenpom's final defensive efficiency ratings last year.

 

[Jkwo]

Wisconsin, Duke and Arizona that year were championship contenders in pretty much any other year. UK's defense suffered without Poythress and the Cats couldn't stop Sam Dekker.

The field is much weaker this year and only Duke is comparable to those Final 4 teams from 2015.

What you're saying is mostly true. Healthy Virginia from that year was also in that category (though they lost their best player mid-season). UT and March UK could deal with those teams, though they would not be favored against Duke, Wisconsin, and certainly not '15 UK.

And regardless, Duke has already been beaten by a mediocre team this year (as well as another 1/2 seed). That team against the field is still not a good bet.

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

I believe the SEC is right there for the toughest conference this year. KY and TN are top 5, but teams like Miss St, AUB, LSU and Ole Miss can still do some damage.

As far as the ACC goes U6 just beat VT on their own court and of course they just held NCST to 24 points. Big 10 and Big 12 both seem overrated too and don't have the high caliber teams like the SEC and ACC do. From what I have seen it's the SEC for sure this year. Of course ESPN has their new channel the ACC channel so they are going to hard charge it more than usual. Plus their love affair with the Dookies.

 

[DevilFan1989]

What you're saying is mostly true. Healthy Virginia from that year was also in that category (though they lost their best player mid-season). UT and March UK could deal with those teams, though they would not be favored against Duke, Wisconsin, and certainly not '15 UK.

And regardless, Duke has already been beaten by a mediocre team this year (as well as another 1/2 seed). That team against the field is still not a good bet.

Remember, Duke didn't have Cam and Tre for that Syracuse game so you can basically throw that out. That's like judging UK on a game where Hagans and Herro don't play.