Football is back! More importantly for Kentucky, it looks like "football" is truly back. The last five seasons have been nothing short of excruciating. Beginning with the Tennessee game in 2010, it's been tough sledding for UK football and the oddly loyal Big Blue fan base (I say oddly because this program hasn't had a winning league record since 1977; it's a miracle our fan base doesn't look more like Vandy's). Five straight losing seasons and thousands of empty seats have been the face of UK football so far this decade. Thankfully, it looks like both of those black eyes are about to disappear. Mark Stoops enters his third season as UK head coach, and according to a number of national pundits, significant improvement is imminent. First things first though, the season opener with Lafayette. ULL has put together four consecutive nine win seasons, an impressive number no matter what league you play in. Still, the Ragin' Cajuns have struggled mightily against higher level teams. In the last four years, Lafayette has gone 0-8 against P5 schools (and Boise State). Last season, they lost to Ole Miss by 41. They were competitive a few years ago against Florida and Arizona, but they've lost their last five games against higher level opponents by 3+ touchdowns. For Kentucky, this game is all about a new era for the program. Stoops has a team that has more Stoops guys than Joker guys. UK is playing in what looks like a new stadium. For the first time in a long time, just about everything surrounding this program is positive. UK still isn't "there" yet in terms of being where Stoops wants to be, but they've come a LONG way since the day he was hired. Cats fans have to be ecstatic about what lies ahead.
Spread (5dimes): Kentucky -17
Series: First meeting
Game Time/TV: 7pm Eastern/ESPNU
Kentucky offense vs. Lafayette defense: Advantage KENTUCKY
The Shannon Dawson era kicks off this weekend. We'll see plenty of spread looks and passes, but Dawson's offense will feature a bigger commitment to the running game (vs. what we saw from Neal Brown). Fortunately for the first year offensive coordinator, it looks like he has the necessary weapons to do just about anything he wants, especially against the Ragin' Cajuns. ULL lost their top two defensive lineman. They also lost virtually their entire defensive coaching staff. UK should absolutely dominate the matchup in the trenches, allowing Towles and company plenty of room to move the football at will both in the air and on the ground. The strength of ULL's defense should be within their back seven, but they have little chance of matching up against the plethora of Kentucky skill players. For the first time in a number of years, UK has a deep and athletic group of WR's. Badet is back. Baker looks like a potential star. Johnson. Timmons. Bone. Snodgrass. True freshman TE CJ Conrad. I haven't been this excited about a group of UK WR's since 2007. I imagine ULL will play a ton of zone. The Cats are also talented in the o-backfield. Boom Williams will be a handful for the Cajuns. Like most UK fans, I'm anxious to see King in the open field. The only thing that could slow UK is unforced errors (bad passes, fumbles, etc...). I think Towles and company will be more than ready to roll. Because the matchup up front looks so uneven, I'm guessing UK goes for 500+ yards and 45+ points.
Kentucky defense vs. Lafayette offense: Advantage KENTUCKY
The first thing most fans probably think about with Eliot's '15 unit is how does he replace Z Smith and Bud Dupree. I'm less concerned about those two spots and more interested in corner. IMO, the most promising development of August drills was the emergence of true freshman cornerback Chris Westry. The youngster is a monster for the CB position (6'4). Another true frosh, Derrick Baity (6'3), is on the depth chart and will get plenty of PT this weekend. UK's secondary could be outstanding by mid-season. Against ULL, they'll probably need a few perimeter guys to step up. The Cajuns don't have a "superstar" returning outside, but Jamal Robinson (returning from injury) is allegedly the best of a decent bunch. The star of their offense, 2014 Sun Belt Player of the Year Elijah McGuire, is a 5'11, 210 pound RB that can beat you both on the ground and in the passing game. UK's LB's will be challenged by both the ULL scheme and McGuire. Lafayette will be starting a new QB. If Brooks Haack gets the start, look for UK to pin their ears back a little bit (Haack isn't a very mobile QB, and I can't imagine he'd be that effective in the read option). The trenches matchup goes to UK, but ULL does return three starters. However, two of those three starters switched positions, so the Cajuns will only have one OL returning to start in the same spot from a season ago. The key in this matchup is to take McGuire away. Do that, and this becomes a mismatch. Best guess, ULL has a drive here and there that leads to points, but UK dominates most of the afternoon.
Special Teams: Advantage Kentucky
With so many terrific athletes at the o-skill positions, UK should be able to become very formidable in the return game. Specifically, Sihiem King on the KR unit. The 172 pound true freshman has been one of the surprises of fall camp. He has tremendous speed and, apparently, the ability to make people miss. Can't wait to see him in the open field. Timmons/TV Williams should be very good in the PR game. I have a lot of confidence in SO K Austin MacGinnis. P Landon Foster is one of the SEC's best. For ULL, kind of surprisingly, they use McGuire to return some kicks. I'm surprised because from what I've read, he means everything to their offense. I'm surprised they'd risk an injury to a guy that they want to get 25+ touches on offense.
Kentucky will win if...Patrick Towles and the offense come out and get things rolling early. ULL won't be able to score with UK, so a quick 21 points will end this one. If the offense gives away points off of turnovers and the game gets shortened for whatever reason, an upset....is still not going to happen.
Lafayette will win if...Kentucky absolutely self destructs. ULL has a new QB, a poor d-line, what appears to be a mediocre at best o-line, and a group of mediocre skill guys. McGuire is a stud, and he'll have to play like a Heisman Candidate to give the Cajuns any shot. ULL would probably need to be +4-5 in the TO margin department to have a shot.
Most important thing for Kentucky...a dominant defensive performance. They won't need to dominate to win this game, but going forward, a shutdown performance this weekend could help establish some much needed confidence. At times last season, the defense was putrid (didn't get a stop against UGA for example). Nothing would help erase that from the memory bank more than a 150 yard, one score effort against ULL.
Prediction: Kentucky 55 Lafayette 10...A big game for the Cats to kick off the 2015 season. UK has favorable matchups on both sides, so a big win is likely on the horizon. Only turnovers or an inaccurate Towles could keep this game remotely close.
GBB!!!
Spread (5dimes): Kentucky -17
Series: First meeting
Game Time/TV: 7pm Eastern/ESPNU
Kentucky offense vs. Lafayette defense: Advantage KENTUCKY
The Shannon Dawson era kicks off this weekend. We'll see plenty of spread looks and passes, but Dawson's offense will feature a bigger commitment to the running game (vs. what we saw from Neal Brown). Fortunately for the first year offensive coordinator, it looks like he has the necessary weapons to do just about anything he wants, especially against the Ragin' Cajuns. ULL lost their top two defensive lineman. They also lost virtually their entire defensive coaching staff. UK should absolutely dominate the matchup in the trenches, allowing Towles and company plenty of room to move the football at will both in the air and on the ground. The strength of ULL's defense should be within their back seven, but they have little chance of matching up against the plethora of Kentucky skill players. For the first time in a number of years, UK has a deep and athletic group of WR's. Badet is back. Baker looks like a potential star. Johnson. Timmons. Bone. Snodgrass. True freshman TE CJ Conrad. I haven't been this excited about a group of UK WR's since 2007. I imagine ULL will play a ton of zone. The Cats are also talented in the o-backfield. Boom Williams will be a handful for the Cajuns. Like most UK fans, I'm anxious to see King in the open field. The only thing that could slow UK is unforced errors (bad passes, fumbles, etc...). I think Towles and company will be more than ready to roll. Because the matchup up front looks so uneven, I'm guessing UK goes for 500+ yards and 45+ points.
Kentucky defense vs. Lafayette offense: Advantage KENTUCKY
The first thing most fans probably think about with Eliot's '15 unit is how does he replace Z Smith and Bud Dupree. I'm less concerned about those two spots and more interested in corner. IMO, the most promising development of August drills was the emergence of true freshman cornerback Chris Westry. The youngster is a monster for the CB position (6'4). Another true frosh, Derrick Baity (6'3), is on the depth chart and will get plenty of PT this weekend. UK's secondary could be outstanding by mid-season. Against ULL, they'll probably need a few perimeter guys to step up. The Cajuns don't have a "superstar" returning outside, but Jamal Robinson (returning from injury) is allegedly the best of a decent bunch. The star of their offense, 2014 Sun Belt Player of the Year Elijah McGuire, is a 5'11, 210 pound RB that can beat you both on the ground and in the passing game. UK's LB's will be challenged by both the ULL scheme and McGuire. Lafayette will be starting a new QB. If Brooks Haack gets the start, look for UK to pin their ears back a little bit (Haack isn't a very mobile QB, and I can't imagine he'd be that effective in the read option). The trenches matchup goes to UK, but ULL does return three starters. However, two of those three starters switched positions, so the Cajuns will only have one OL returning to start in the same spot from a season ago. The key in this matchup is to take McGuire away. Do that, and this becomes a mismatch. Best guess, ULL has a drive here and there that leads to points, but UK dominates most of the afternoon.
Special Teams: Advantage Kentucky
With so many terrific athletes at the o-skill positions, UK should be able to become very formidable in the return game. Specifically, Sihiem King on the KR unit. The 172 pound true freshman has been one of the surprises of fall camp. He has tremendous speed and, apparently, the ability to make people miss. Can't wait to see him in the open field. Timmons/TV Williams should be very good in the PR game. I have a lot of confidence in SO K Austin MacGinnis. P Landon Foster is one of the SEC's best. For ULL, kind of surprisingly, they use McGuire to return some kicks. I'm surprised because from what I've read, he means everything to their offense. I'm surprised they'd risk an injury to a guy that they want to get 25+ touches on offense.
Kentucky will win if...Patrick Towles and the offense come out and get things rolling early. ULL won't be able to score with UK, so a quick 21 points will end this one. If the offense gives away points off of turnovers and the game gets shortened for whatever reason, an upset....is still not going to happen.
Lafayette will win if...Kentucky absolutely self destructs. ULL has a new QB, a poor d-line, what appears to be a mediocre at best o-line, and a group of mediocre skill guys. McGuire is a stud, and he'll have to play like a Heisman Candidate to give the Cajuns any shot. ULL would probably need to be +4-5 in the TO margin department to have a shot.
Most important thing for Kentucky...a dominant defensive performance. They won't need to dominate to win this game, but going forward, a shutdown performance this weekend could help establish some much needed confidence. At times last season, the defense was putrid (didn't get a stop against UGA for example). Nothing would help erase that from the memory bank more than a 150 yard, one score effort against ULL.
Prediction: Kentucky 55 Lafayette 10...A big game for the Cats to kick off the 2015 season. UK has favorable matchups on both sides, so a big win is likely on the horizon. Only turnovers or an inaccurate Towles could keep this game remotely close.
GBB!!!
