We just put three freshman into the lottery, quite deservedly so I will add just like seven months ago. The team on the floor was the #2 class. The recruits we have coming in are all skilled perimeter players that can shoot and score that each showed they really wanted to play here.
Also, as of the moment we would be one over. Granted, I don't buy that concern holds up but we are probably going to return a few guys no matter what.
It is damn hard to argue some systemic meltdown of talent evaluation, acquisition, or development of top talent when on a non reactionary basis we are in a unparalleled run including right now despite Duke having back to back crazy but yet to play out years.
It’s clearly deeper than that. The critiques aren’t just based on Duke obliterating us in head-to-head recruiting battles. The critiques also follow a sample size that exhibits a near complete cupboard clearing for kids who are in the program two years or less. Even guys like Humphries are bolting at the first sign of professional daylight.
In such an environment, you need top 5 kids to challenge for titles. The Monk/Fox group, for all the talk about how close they were, still didn’t get it done because they were missing a crucial piece here or there. The same can be said for ’10, ’11, ’14 (I give '15 a pass because of Poythress going down). All close, but no cigar. It took Anthony Davis (a true transcendent kid) and his entourage of fellow draft picks, including some vets, to make it happen. They also were really the only complete team besides the '15 team I've seen Cal put together here. Notice how those two teams combined to go 76-3?
So, if UK starts trending in the direction where the majority of kids stay, that’s great. But the sample size has featured a plethora of Harrison, Goodwin, Teague, Johnson, Briscoe, Humphries, Lamb, etc. all leave when it was clear they had room to develop.
I think UK loses 4-5 this summer. That’s the trend, and that’s the narrative that’s being sold to these kids on the recruiting front.
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And then when Matthews transfers over lack of playing time or Briscoe leaves for the G-League, Cal and his staff can’t believe what just happened.
So, no systemic breakdown, but if UK doesn’t land top 5 kids, it also kills Kentucky’s realistic chances at a title and will continue to do so until fringe NBA kids start returning in larger quantities. The sample size has shown this to be true, and if fans like you are okay with that, that’s fine for you, but most fans are clearly not.
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