Much has been made over the progress or lack thereof from last year to this year. Several weeks ago I caught some flak for saying that Kentucky clearly showed a lot of progress from 2013 to 2014, but not as much from 2014 to 2015, if any. Others made the very legitimate point that it's easy to go from 2-10 to 5-7, but comparatively much more difficult to go from 5-7 to the next step up -- maybe not to 6-6 but beyond that, yes.
Now, for those who believe it's only fair to point out the positives: I do believe there are some positive signs. The most positive sign is a little number called 'yards per play.' Historical context is necessary for the full significance to be appreciated.
Kentucky has averaged 5.54 yards per play this year. Kentucky's opponents have averaged 5.39 yards per play this year.
This is significant. Yards per play are not the only indicator of a team's quality, and they are sometimes skewed. But over an 11 game schedule, as an SEC team, you balance the stat-skewing games (Charlotte) with the games against opponents that put you at a talent deficit.
Compare this year's UK yards per play statistics against past UK teams. First I'll list UK's YPP. Then I'll list that of UK's opponents.
Do you remember in the Rich Brooks era, when UK had some very long running statistic of losing yards per play against every FBS opponent? I don't remember the actual number, but it took a very, very long time for UK to 'outperform' one single team in yards per play.
2014: 5.43 (UK) / 5.50 (opponents) = -0.07 average per play
2013: 5.29 (UK) / 6.26 (opponents) = -0.97 average per play
2012: 4.78 (UK) / 5.54 (opponents) = -0.76 average per play
2011: 4.08 (UK) / 5.46 (opponents) = -1.38 average per play
2010: 6.11 (UK) / 5.61 (opponents) = +0.50 average per play
2009: 4.91 (UK) / 5.55 (opponents) = -0.64 average per play
2008: 4.53 (UK) / 5.17 (opponents) = -0.64 average per play
2007: 5.7 (UK) / 5.3 (opponents) = +0.4 average per play
2006: 5.8 (UK) / 6.7 (opponents) = -0.9 average per play (+18 turnovers)
2005: 4.7 (UK) / 5.9 (opponents) = -1.2 average per play
2004: 4.3 (UK) / 6.1 (opponents) = -1.8 average per play
2003: 4.8 (UK) / 5.3 (opponents) = -0.5 average per play
2002: 5.3 (UK) / 5.6 (opponents) = -0.3 average per play
2001: 5.8 (UK) / 6.4 (opponents) = -0.6 average per play
2000: 5.6 (UK) / 6.2 (opponents) = -0.6 average per play
Yards per play is significant because if you win that then it means you aren't having to 'overperform' with things like turnover margin, etc., in most cases. It means you are lining up and either out-talenting or out-executing your opponent for a large part of the game.
Here is the reality: At Kentucky, over the long haul, it has proven very difficult even with a porous out of conference schedule to produce a positive yard per play average. The highest that UK has ever produced was 0.5 yards per play better than opponents in a season.
However, under Mark Stoops the number has gone from -0.97 to -0.07 to now +0.15.
That means, in my estimation ...
That athletically and skill-wise UK is better suited than it has been most of the time since the year 2000 to line up and compete with opponents over a full season. There are stat-skewing games for and against (Charlotte on one end of the spectrum, Tennessee on the other). But I actually believe the games against Lafayette and EKU should have been more favorable to UK than they really were, as UK didn't play especially well those games.
When you consider the across-the-board issues on offense and the loss of Dupree and Smith on defense, in context and relative to UK's performance since 2000, the only explanation for me is this: UK's finally getting the talent it needs and it really has narrowed the talent gap.
Considering that the offense returns almost everyone significant the offensive number stands to substantially improve next year. It will be a massive disappointment if it does not. YPP has gone up all over college football with the proliferation of the modern offense. It should go up for Kentucky next year.
The issue next year is on defense when Kentucky loses Ryan Flannigan, Josh Forrest, Khalid Henderson, C.J. Johnson, Melvin Lewis, Farrington Huguenin, Jabari Johnson and some others on the two-deep.
However, given the fact that so many young players are stepping up in the secondary, that UK has been able to redshirt a large number of players early in Stoops' tenure, etc., and the fact that the defense has actually overperformed this year relative to expectations, if you really look at the numbers, I think there's hope that next year could produce a favorable +/- and thus a significantly better team.
Now, for those who believe it's only fair to point out the positives: I do believe there are some positive signs. The most positive sign is a little number called 'yards per play.' Historical context is necessary for the full significance to be appreciated.
Kentucky has averaged 5.54 yards per play this year. Kentucky's opponents have averaged 5.39 yards per play this year.
This is significant. Yards per play are not the only indicator of a team's quality, and they are sometimes skewed. But over an 11 game schedule, as an SEC team, you balance the stat-skewing games (Charlotte) with the games against opponents that put you at a talent deficit.
Compare this year's UK yards per play statistics against past UK teams. First I'll list UK's YPP. Then I'll list that of UK's opponents.
Do you remember in the Rich Brooks era, when UK had some very long running statistic of losing yards per play against every FBS opponent? I don't remember the actual number, but it took a very, very long time for UK to 'outperform' one single team in yards per play.
2014: 5.43 (UK) / 5.50 (opponents) = -0.07 average per play
2013: 5.29 (UK) / 6.26 (opponents) = -0.97 average per play
2012: 4.78 (UK) / 5.54 (opponents) = -0.76 average per play
2011: 4.08 (UK) / 5.46 (opponents) = -1.38 average per play
2010: 6.11 (UK) / 5.61 (opponents) = +0.50 average per play
2009: 4.91 (UK) / 5.55 (opponents) = -0.64 average per play
2008: 4.53 (UK) / 5.17 (opponents) = -0.64 average per play
2007: 5.7 (UK) / 5.3 (opponents) = +0.4 average per play
2006: 5.8 (UK) / 6.7 (opponents) = -0.9 average per play (+18 turnovers)
2005: 4.7 (UK) / 5.9 (opponents) = -1.2 average per play
2004: 4.3 (UK) / 6.1 (opponents) = -1.8 average per play
2003: 4.8 (UK) / 5.3 (opponents) = -0.5 average per play
2002: 5.3 (UK) / 5.6 (opponents) = -0.3 average per play
2001: 5.8 (UK) / 6.4 (opponents) = -0.6 average per play
2000: 5.6 (UK) / 6.2 (opponents) = -0.6 average per play
Yards per play is significant because if you win that then it means you aren't having to 'overperform' with things like turnover margin, etc., in most cases. It means you are lining up and either out-talenting or out-executing your opponent for a large part of the game.
Here is the reality: At Kentucky, over the long haul, it has proven very difficult even with a porous out of conference schedule to produce a positive yard per play average. The highest that UK has ever produced was 0.5 yards per play better than opponents in a season.
However, under Mark Stoops the number has gone from -0.97 to -0.07 to now +0.15.
That means, in my estimation ...
That athletically and skill-wise UK is better suited than it has been most of the time since the year 2000 to line up and compete with opponents over a full season. There are stat-skewing games for and against (Charlotte on one end of the spectrum, Tennessee on the other). But I actually believe the games against Lafayette and EKU should have been more favorable to UK than they really were, as UK didn't play especially well those games.
When you consider the across-the-board issues on offense and the loss of Dupree and Smith on defense, in context and relative to UK's performance since 2000, the only explanation for me is this: UK's finally getting the talent it needs and it really has narrowed the talent gap.
Considering that the offense returns almost everyone significant the offensive number stands to substantially improve next year. It will be a massive disappointment if it does not. YPP has gone up all over college football with the proliferation of the modern offense. It should go up for Kentucky next year.
The issue next year is on defense when Kentucky loses Ryan Flannigan, Josh Forrest, Khalid Henderson, C.J. Johnson, Melvin Lewis, Farrington Huguenin, Jabari Johnson and some others on the two-deep.
However, given the fact that so many young players are stepping up in the secondary, that UK has been able to redshirt a large number of players early in Stoops' tenure, etc., and the fact that the defense has actually overperformed this year relative to expectations, if you really look at the numbers, I think there's hope that next year could produce a favorable +/- and thus a significantly better team.
