Some thoughts on this:
1. They will never go to 32 imo
2. Networks and conferences will never allow championship games to go away. The SEC championship is the 4th most watched game of the entire season behind the semis and title game. Conferences make a ton of money from their championship game. They aren’t giving up that game to share money with other conferences.
3. Other bowl games will never be included in any other expansion. It will be more games on home fields, just like the first round in 2024 and beyond.
4. Teams aren’t going back to 11 games. Their conference TV contracts will drop significantly (adding that to dropping the championship game would be killer to conference revenue).
5. Another reason they aren’t going back to 11 games is the potential of losing a home game. Big time Power 5 programs net about $4 million per home game. They aren’t giving up that money.
This is the one case where I think adding more games leads to less revenue for conferences.
I understand your thinking. But here are my answers to your observations.
2. The first sixteen games will be watched more than all the conference championship games. I understand why SECchampionship is a big deal now - because it is a big deal! But those 16 games will generate a ton of TV revenue and ticket sales.
3. You say other bowl games will not be included. I think th bowls will be fighting to be one of the playoff bowls. The bowls that aren;t in the playoff picture will disappear. But this will give those bowls a chance to sell out their games and generate huge amounts of money for their charities as well. Who really cares about the Music City bowl now? But if it was part of the Championship playoffs- it will be packed! The host cities will be trying to be a part of the big picture.
4. 11 game seasons would be a choice. That is for all the people who don't want to add another week to the season. But 11 games would be more meaningful - as many late season games are now not important and attendance and interest wanes - more games will be more meaningful when 32 teams are trying to get into the playoffs.
5. The additional playoff game would probably mean a lot more than $4 million to a home school. I would say it would triple that amount in reality. Everything is a guess - but just using the data from the NFL playoffs and the playoff games now, it seems pretty clear that the money will be there for everyone! Including those programs who don't play in upper leagues.
I remember when the NCAA Basketball tournament was 16 teams. People complained about adding teams and diluting the quality of the teams and season. Now those 3 weeks of the season are what everyone looks forward to. Football will be the same - except even bigger in my opinion. People don't like change. But when you talk BILLIONS of dollars - things will change quickly. Money seems to always talk. Those 31 games will generate Billions - not millions! People say fans can not spend money to support their teams for many games. Well, how has it affected the NFL - they expanded the playoffs - what do tickets cost for the superbowl???? Do you ever see any seats empty? Marketing will change - just like it does for the NCAA finals. Most tickets to those playoff games will be sold long before the teams in them are known. Thats why the bowl game tie ins will be a big deal. Those bowls will push to make them sellouts - as they know those games will be televised across the country and the viewership will be high - as they actually mean something!
Go Big Blue!
P.S. I will probably not be around to see this happen. But I have lived long enough to see man land on the moon, to see everyone have a phone that is a computer that fits into their hands without wires attached to it, to see the NCAA go from 16 teams to 68 - so why wouldn't I expect this to happen in the future?
