I'm putting this in a message board post rather than in a story because this is entirely my subjective analysis and would love your feedback, criticism, agreement, anger or whatever you're inspired to throw back at me.
Yesterday in our staff predictions for UK-USM the four of us (me, Derek, T.J. and Josh) picked Kentucky to win by about 10-14 points on average. My pick was 41-27 (and as I said on T.J.'s radio show/our podcast, I've got to talk to Derek about doing that cheap Price is Right tactic of going one point over me, 41-28 -- not amused). While I readily concede that the right (or wrong, most of you would say) set of circumstances could have Kentucky 0-1 late Saturday night, I think the most likely scenario is indeed a 10-21 point Kentucky win.
Here are the main reasons for that.
1. Every significant positional / field mismatch favors Kentucky. I do think you have to give Mullens the nod over Barker at quarterback (no knock on Barker, just based on last year it's not controversial), but it's not Mullens vs Barker. It's Mullens vs UK's defense and Barker vs USM's defense.
The more I look at this game, I only see one glaring, potentially game-defining mismatch, on paper. That's --- The interior of UK's offensive line vs. the USM defensive interior (and really the whole UK OL vs USM DL). Kentucky's offensive line may be a middling SEC unit -- maybe better, maybe worse, time will tell. But it's a lot better than USM's defensive line. A lot better. They average about 250 pounds up front and they're not very long.
Draper Riley was USM's only Preseason All-Conference player up front. He led last year's team with 6.5 sacks. While several others are quick and have the potential to make isolated plays, there is not one proven remaining defensive lineman who should cause John Schlarman or Drew Barker to lose sleep. Furthermore, what makes Alabama so tough -- tougher in football than Calipari's Kentucky is in basketball -- is that football is a long game. It's 60 minutes to basketball's 40, but even each individual minute is longer. More wear, tear, depth-testing, weight and weight room-influencing moments, and with every passing moment the next one gets longer. There's SEC depth, there's C-USA depth, but in this case there's also a very small defensive line missing its key piece. That glaring mismatch makes Drew Barker better, Kemp and Boom better, it puts C.J. Conrad on the field as a route-runner more than as a blocker, it puts more receivers on the field -- it influences everything, and more so in the third and fourth quarters (money time) than the first and second.
Beyond the one glaring mismatch the other more modest mismatches favor Kentucky, in my mind. Kentucky's receivers do have an advantage over the Southern Miss defensive backs. Mr. Irrelevant in last year's NFL Draft was Kalan Reed and he was the Eagles' best play maker in the secondary last year. Picasso Nelson is a Preseason All-C-USA player in the Eagles' defensive backfield, but he didn't have any interceptions last year. He did force a fumble and block a punt last year, but he's mostly a smart player and a reliable tackler. I don't agree with the assessment that the USM secondary is truly daunting. It may be C-USA's best secondary, as the revered Phil Steele says, but that doesn't always tell you a whole lot. Some 5-7 Kentucky teams would have won C-USA. USM does not have the quality depth in the secondary to match up with the bevy of diverse receivers -- slots to insides to Garrett Johnsons -- that UK will throw at them en masse.
Another mismatch favoring Kentucky is, in my mind, the edge of the line when USM has the ball. I will eat crow if I'm wrong, but Nick Mullens is going into a season opener with a new offensive coordinator -- one who likes his tackles blocking for a long time while receivers run vertical routes -- with a converted defensive tackle (only 275 pounds) at left tackle and a redshirt freshman at right tackle. I'll eat crow if they whip Kentucky's defensive end, tackle, linebackers and blitzing defensive backs -- but I don't think I'll be eating crow. I'm not predicting a number of sacks or hits on Mullens, but I think UK will have success causing chaos and breaking things down when they send pressure. I don't think Eliot is Joe Lee Dunn at heart; I don't think he's the kind of coach who just wants to blitz the hell out of the other team because, dammit, that's what defenses do. I think he's always going to be more calculating, taking a timely, disguised approach. But I think those blitzes will be effective. If they're not, the defense is in for a long season.
If there were one mismatch favoring Southern Miss, I'd say it would be Ito Smith against Kentucky's linebackers. However, I think UK's linebackers are much more the kind that can thrive breaking on the ball, playing in coverage, going sideline to sideline fast, getting to the flats, etc., with the likes of Eli Brown (fast), De'Niro Laster (fast), Jordan Jones (really quick), Josh Allen (long, athletic), Denzil Ware (explosive) and Kobie Walker (smooth) -- than they are getting in the box against Tennessee or Alabama. I don't think getting off blocks will be their downfall in this game, although I do think it could be in other games.
Yesterday in our staff predictions for UK-USM the four of us (me, Derek, T.J. and Josh) picked Kentucky to win by about 10-14 points on average. My pick was 41-27 (and as I said on T.J.'s radio show/our podcast, I've got to talk to Derek about doing that cheap Price is Right tactic of going one point over me, 41-28 -- not amused). While I readily concede that the right (or wrong, most of you would say) set of circumstances could have Kentucky 0-1 late Saturday night, I think the most likely scenario is indeed a 10-21 point Kentucky win.
Here are the main reasons for that.
1. Every significant positional / field mismatch favors Kentucky. I do think you have to give Mullens the nod over Barker at quarterback (no knock on Barker, just based on last year it's not controversial), but it's not Mullens vs Barker. It's Mullens vs UK's defense and Barker vs USM's defense.
The more I look at this game, I only see one glaring, potentially game-defining mismatch, on paper. That's --- The interior of UK's offensive line vs. the USM defensive interior (and really the whole UK OL vs USM DL). Kentucky's offensive line may be a middling SEC unit -- maybe better, maybe worse, time will tell. But it's a lot better than USM's defensive line. A lot better. They average about 250 pounds up front and they're not very long.
Draper Riley was USM's only Preseason All-Conference player up front. He led last year's team with 6.5 sacks. While several others are quick and have the potential to make isolated plays, there is not one proven remaining defensive lineman who should cause John Schlarman or Drew Barker to lose sleep. Furthermore, what makes Alabama so tough -- tougher in football than Calipari's Kentucky is in basketball -- is that football is a long game. It's 60 minutes to basketball's 40, but even each individual minute is longer. More wear, tear, depth-testing, weight and weight room-influencing moments, and with every passing moment the next one gets longer. There's SEC depth, there's C-USA depth, but in this case there's also a very small defensive line missing its key piece. That glaring mismatch makes Drew Barker better, Kemp and Boom better, it puts C.J. Conrad on the field as a route-runner more than as a blocker, it puts more receivers on the field -- it influences everything, and more so in the third and fourth quarters (money time) than the first and second.
Beyond the one glaring mismatch the other more modest mismatches favor Kentucky, in my mind. Kentucky's receivers do have an advantage over the Southern Miss defensive backs. Mr. Irrelevant in last year's NFL Draft was Kalan Reed and he was the Eagles' best play maker in the secondary last year. Picasso Nelson is a Preseason All-C-USA player in the Eagles' defensive backfield, but he didn't have any interceptions last year. He did force a fumble and block a punt last year, but he's mostly a smart player and a reliable tackler. I don't agree with the assessment that the USM secondary is truly daunting. It may be C-USA's best secondary, as the revered Phil Steele says, but that doesn't always tell you a whole lot. Some 5-7 Kentucky teams would have won C-USA. USM does not have the quality depth in the secondary to match up with the bevy of diverse receivers -- slots to insides to Garrett Johnsons -- that UK will throw at them en masse.
Another mismatch favoring Kentucky is, in my mind, the edge of the line when USM has the ball. I will eat crow if I'm wrong, but Nick Mullens is going into a season opener with a new offensive coordinator -- one who likes his tackles blocking for a long time while receivers run vertical routes -- with a converted defensive tackle (only 275 pounds) at left tackle and a redshirt freshman at right tackle. I'll eat crow if they whip Kentucky's defensive end, tackle, linebackers and blitzing defensive backs -- but I don't think I'll be eating crow. I'm not predicting a number of sacks or hits on Mullens, but I think UK will have success causing chaos and breaking things down when they send pressure. I don't think Eliot is Joe Lee Dunn at heart; I don't think he's the kind of coach who just wants to blitz the hell out of the other team because, dammit, that's what defenses do. I think he's always going to be more calculating, taking a timely, disguised approach. But I think those blitzes will be effective. If they're not, the defense is in for a long season.
If there were one mismatch favoring Southern Miss, I'd say it would be Ito Smith against Kentucky's linebackers. However, I think UK's linebackers are much more the kind that can thrive breaking on the ball, playing in coverage, going sideline to sideline fast, getting to the flats, etc., with the likes of Eli Brown (fast), De'Niro Laster (fast), Jordan Jones (really quick), Josh Allen (long, athletic), Denzil Ware (explosive) and Kobie Walker (smooth) -- than they are getting in the box against Tennessee or Alabama. I don't think getting off blocks will be their downfall in this game, although I do think it could be in other games.
