Which is more likely. UK gets beat in the round of 32 or makes the Final Four?

[MachineHead1]

I’m sorry but I have zero confidence in a team that just got waxed by Texas A&M by 10

 

[Jakerz]

Statistically speaking, I imagine your odds are greater losing the round of 32 no matter how good you are.

 

[JonathanW]

It's a simple conditional probability.
Lets say you believe the following:
- if advance to 2nd round, win 2nd round = 80%
- if advance to S16, win S16 = 60%
- if advance to E8, win E8 = 40%
Then the comparison is 20% (lose 2nd round) vs 19.2% (80%*60%%40%, keep winning to F4).
Adjust those individual game % to your personal beliefs. And those are pretty close to where I am at, so 2nd round loss or Final 4 are about equally likely IMO.

 

[JonathanW]

Statistically speaking, I imagine your odds are greater losing the round of 32 no matter how good you are.

Statistically speaking (from an actual Statistician) you are wrong.

 

[permdaddy]

Second Round

 

[ukfan117]

This team has the talent to win it all and we have a coach who doesn't care anymore. Any coach in America would start Reed and Dillingham without a second thought.

Oakland is a good 3 point shooting team and they play good defense. Both have been Kentucky's Achilles heel this year. I think they'll make it to the Sweet 16.

 

[The Snoke]

I’m going with lose the 2nd game of the tournament. Then more excuses, like the years past.

I hate it but I’m with you. Wash, Rinse, Repeat. I hate being it being Groundhogs day every time when March rolls around.

 

[BlueSince92]

A round of 32 loss is more likely.

But what I hope happens is that we make it to the Elite Eight, lose there, celebrate, and triple Cal’s buyout.

 

[KyCatFan]

I expect us to lose during the first weekend so I put us winning it all 😂. Hoping this is one of those crazy tournaments that nothing you expect to happen happens. We probably will lose in the 2nd round and my bracket will be shot but oh well.

 

[ArcticChar]

Second round, nc state.

 

[KTBFFH92]

?

I fully expect them to lose to Texas tech or even NC St like I expected Kstate to beat them last year second round. I have zero faith in calipari anymore he’s a disgrace. He’s not even a bad coach; he’s not a coach

I couldn’t bring myself to pick Oakland in my bracket but it was tempting frankly

 

[jeffky]

I got us getting beat by Houston elite 8 but I would not be surprised if it's the 2nd round cal is already choking and it carries over to the players I saw it in the Texas am game he is a big time choker

 

[BBUK]

This is from CinDog for some of you....

@Bkocats

 

[L.O.D.]

Bilas just answered that. He said we will beat Oakland. Then we will beat TT. Said that TT is really good defensively but we are much better offensively than them. After that he said we play Marquette. He said the key is if Kolek is totally healthy for Marquette then they will beat us. If he isn't we win. If we win against them says we will play Houston. And their defense and rebounding will be too much for us.

Well Marquette has OWNED us since before MSWindows was a thing. I am hoping Marquette loses before we play them no matter who is healthy there. Just seeing Marquete playing us makes me wanna puke. Still not over 94 or 03.

 

[JC CATS]

Honestly I am 50/50 we beat Oakland . Firstcthibg first let's beat Oakland then worry bout rd 2

LOD, do you think they will make it to the gym for Oakland?

 

[chevyman 50]

Hope I am wrong but I don' think they make it past the 2nd round.

 

[FinancialPlannerZac]

I actually feel like we will either lose in the 2nd round OR make the final four with no in between lol. We show out in the biggest games, but also have a tendency to play down to our competition. If we make it to the Sweet 16 I think we roll to the final four

I have had a similar feeling. Survive the first weekend and I think some of the pressure falls away and the guys can play a little freer. It would be a shame if this team doesn't survive the first weekend. Would love to see what they can do if they catch a little fire and gain some momentum.

 

[TFCats11]

On one side you have an immensely talented team, on the other, you have an immensely under performing head coach!

With any other coach, and I literally mean ANY, I’m picking the FF all day and twice on weekends, but that’s not an option. Unfortunately, I have to go with R32…

And if that actually happens? WooWee, and spare me the $40 million BS cop out! That will be negotiated and Cal is toast, and probably Mitch as well!

 

[ukcatz12]

Is this answer any different for any other team. Kentucky is much more likely to lose in round 2 than make a Final 4 lol. I'd say the same about Uconn honestly.

Exactly this. This question isn't nearly the gotcha that people are acting like it is. According the EvanMiya Arizona has the second best odds of a Final Four run at 40%. Their chance of beating Dayton or Nevada in the second round isn't going to be too much above 60%.

 

[L.O.D.]

LOD, do you think they will make it to the gym for Oakland?

Lol, man this team nothing g would shock. We can beat an even blow out any team even Uconn. We can also lose an get smoked by any team. Got no clue but will be cheering

 

[kennyskywalker34]

round of 32. I have us losing in the sweet 16 to Marquette tho, a team that seems to always have our number

Opening day is looking worse with each passing day. Damn injuries.

 

[drew_ukfan]

Opening day is looking worse with each passing day. Damn injuries.

I had us winning the division but injuries and Marte being an idiot, doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Plan to watch all games either way tho

 

[Wildcats1st]

No damn clue. That’s why this season has been both miserable and super fun at the same time. Going to enjoy the ride and hope for the best from here on out.

We will end up playing TaMU for the final four and lose. That’s my read

 

[MachineHead1]

Oakland by 173 points

 

[BlazerHallsBallsN96]

Gun to my head, obvious answer is round of 32

Hoping for a miracle though

Yup, I see 32 being the end as well

 

[BlazerHallsBallsN96]

That says something especially since it is one of the more talented teams UK has had in awhile.

Yeah we're sick and tired of being the bukkake bitch for all of the lower teams in the world to get their rocks off on. Same story every year anymore feel good story about a bunch of ****ing nobody's beating big blue.

 

[BlazerHallsBallsN96]

I'm probably more worried about the TTU/NCState game than the Sweet 16 game.

Marquette is shaky to me even with Kolek healthy, who probably won't be 100% for the ROS.
Florida is solid, but they did just lose a very important big man.

And I'm not entirely convinced either gets by their opening game. I'm picking Marquette to lose in a few underdog brackets.

And even then, that game is a week away, and this is a Kentucky team that just gets better and better as the season goes on. We'd have another week of practice, shoring things up, etc.

I wish I shared your optimism but after they're showing against t a m u I have completely lost 100% faith in them. There's no way I would ever bend over and take it like that from anybody, you'd have to u alive me.