Vandy, Florida and Auburn are not pushovers
- Thread starter BGWentworth
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Only us old farts know what you are talking about.
Notice the OP hasn't responded to his epic thread of falsehoods lol.
Agree...we'll need our A effort (if not our A game) for all 3. Let's hope we can handle prosperity and keep improving each week. We can still have the type of season we all want
It’s not so much Vandy, Fla and Auburn we have to worry about, it’s which UK team shows up..
Sounds like screwed up reasoning to say you are more likely to go 1-2 than 3-0 in 3 games which you are favored in each.
Vandy is very much like UK. If the real Vandy shows up, they are dangerous. The same Vandy team also lost to *checks notes* Georgia State. A 2-2 Georgia State that is SIXTH in the Sun Belt. So, they can either beat or be Vandy.
Florida hasn't beaten anyone of standard. They beat Samford and Miss St. And Miss St is awwwwwwwful right now.
Auburn is not good either. We should go 3-0 in this set.
Florida hasn't beaten anyone of standard. They beat Samford and Miss St. And Miss St is awwwwwwwful right now.
Auburn is not good either. We should go 3-0 in this set.
We will be favored in each of these games, so they won't be a toss up by Vegas' standards, as things stand now, but our margin for error with a lower scoring offense means we can't take any for granted. We can't overlook anyone, but we should enter each game knowing if we play our A game, then we will win.
It's a misused stat, much like the "he doesn't beat SEC teams with a winning record"(even though 50%+ of the games that qualified for that were Bama and UGA). More than 50% of his losses after a bye week were recorded in his first few years before his teams were good enough to make it to a bowl game and all of the losses were on the road, where UK is rarely favored. Since 2016 he has a 57% winning percentage after a bye, which is about the same as the team's overall record, and all losses have come on the road. Context matters.
Auburn does have a great offense, with qualifiers. They pass for over 450 yards a game and rush for over 175, averaging 5.5 yards a rush. They're only problem is turnovers. They've fumbled 11 times, losing 6 and thrown 9 interceptions and this, in big part, is because they have trouble pass blocking. We will need to continue those trends, which we have proven we are capable of doing, in order to win.
Vandy has an All Conference level QB. Are Beck and Dart not both Heisman Contenders? We kept both in check. I trust in our Defense.
We’re 3-0 against Vandy after Bye weeks under Stoops. Granted they were close, but they were wins nonetheless.
Watch something stupid happen, like Vandy beats Bama and sends CFB into mass chaos.
Ok, so we “almost” knocked off the number 1 team in the country at the time we played them, and DID knock off the #6 team on the road. Of course we have to take every game seriously and I’m by no means saying we will roll, but as long as the team that played against SC doesn’t show up, we should be able to pull this one out.
That 2022 loss is still kinda hanging around. Still can't believe we choked that away....AND at home.
IMHO, our D is of course very solid and can keep us in most any game. The offense isn't clicking yet and most of that falls on the o-line..but it appears to be improving. If we control the ball like we typically do and don't make mistakes, we should win all three games. Key words there, should and if. I think we are deeper at most positions than any of those three teams. Can't say that about us vs a lot of the rest of the sec, though. I think we can lean on these three teams, control the clock, limit mistakes..and score enough to win all three. At least that's what I hope and believe we can and will do. Still wanna see more of Wimsat(sp). He looked to have a good arm against Ohio but didn't throw a pass against UM...IIRC.
I’m gonna go on a limb and say the South Carolina game was our annual “WTF was that” clunker of a game.
How does three games with above 50% win predictions equal slightly under two wins. That makes zero sense to me.
That's how probabilities work and so many have a hard time grasping it. Like if there's a 75% chance of some things occurring, then what is the chance of that same outcome 10 times in a row. It's less than a 6% chance.
If you’ve got a little time and can find a 20-sided die, you can approximate this in a little experiment….
Since Vandy is a 76% win, roll the 20 sided die and if the number comes up 1-15, UK wins. If 16-20, then Vandy does.
Roll the dice again for the Florida game … (1-11 UK wins, 12-20 Florida).
Then for Auburn, 1-13 UK wins, and 14-20 Auburn does.
Write down the results … how many wins did UK get?
Repeat this sequence 10 or so times (30 would be optimal, but who has that much time?!)… how often did UK go 3-0? What was the average number of UK wins?
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Uh, I was promised that no math would be required for participation on this Forum!
I Do think that most UK fans expect to win the next three games, but I don't think many are expecting it to be easy. In fact, it would be very UK to lose at least one of them.
Here are my expectations:
-Come out flat, but hopefully win a nailbiter against vandy. Night game should help the energy in the stadium.
-I'm undecided on Florida. If they lose to UCF at home this weekend, then they go up to Knoxville and get killed next weekend then I think they close up shop and we roll them. If they beat UCF, their season is still alive and well even if they lose to UT.
-I expect a VERY tough and hard fought game against auburn. They're a few bounces away from being undefeated, but instead they're 2-3. They SHOULD have beaten oklahoma and Arkansas. But, if they lose to Georgia this weekend and then lose to mizzou next weekend, where are there heads at when they come into LEX?\
A lot depends on how these teams fare in the next few weeks before we know what we will be dealing with.
Just statistics. Add up the probabilities and you get 1.96 wins.
Doing the math, I come up with 3-0 at 27%, 2-1 (45%), 1-2 at 24% and 0-3 is 4%.
Kentucky gave up 13 points and 17 points to the number one team and the number 6 team.
They should beat these three teams. Should. They will be the favorite in all three.
Get the damn job done.
Then its time to ruin the orange lovers season.
The opportunity is there.
They should beat these three teams. Should. They will be the favorite in all three.
Get the damn job done.
Then its time to ruin the orange lovers season.
The opportunity is there.
So, you’re saying there’s a chance!
Seriously, should we beat Vandy, the odds of a three game sweep probably double.
They definitely go up, but not double…. 27% becomes 36%.
Of course, if UK plays better than the predictor model expects, or Florida and Auburn play worse than expected, then the predictor model will change, and UK’s odds of winning those next two games will improve … so your “probably double” could come true!
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