Why? Because UK's last 14 games WWLWWLWWLWWLWW. We win two and lose one. If the pattern were to stay true we lose to Missouri and then we win at Kansas and at Tennessee. Hopefully we will break that pattern.
UK will lose to Missouri and beat Kansas
- Thread starter Bigkyfan10
- Start date
IF you put any stock at all in these projections, there is literally a less this 1% chance of that happening. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/kentucky-wildcats/projections
Well actually there is a 50% chance of winning each game. One winner and one loser. So the chance is slightly higher than 1%.
However I understand what you mean, will be extremely tough to win in Lawrence. But, we are playing better, so who knows...
However I understand what you mean, will be extremely tough to win in Lawrence. But, we are playing better, so who knows...
No.
Playing a game is not flipping a coin. There are no naturally even odds for both sides. When Roger Federer plays a guy in the 1st round of a tennis tournament, that guy doesn't have a 50% chance of winning just because he's on the same court. He has almost no chance of winning. Same for Missouri, because they're just not good at all.
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None of those losses were at home and this Missouri game is at Rupp
While we are playing well the last two games, we are not winning at Kansas. It would be a tough game to win any year, but combine our current inconsistencies, last year's beat down, and fan's anger over losing the last three games to us = not good. UK will need a perfect game.
I can see UK getting up for the KU game and it being a good one
We have a lot of classic games in our history with those guys
But i don't see UK's front court holding up their end of the deal at all
We'll get bullied in a bit in that one
KU 75 UK 66
We are going 2-0 this week. Nothing and I mean nothing tells me we can't beat Rock Chalk.
Our rotation is developing, and Kansas sounds like it's down to a 6 man rotation.
No way Perry Ellis gets to roam around without any defense. Kansas fans are embracing for another 2nd round exit.
If you think that are 20 teams that separate us from Kansas, you haven't been watching basketball this year.
Our rotation is developing, and Kansas sounds like it's down to a 6 man rotation.
No way Perry Ellis gets to roam around without any defense. Kansas fans are embracing for another 2nd round exit.
If you think that are 20 teams that separate us from Kansas, you haven't been watching basketball this year.
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anon_q409idbs5m40a
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I think KU will beat us, however, given the improvement in the past couple of games it could very well be close. I don't think that it'll be the blowout some of us thought after losing to Auburn.
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anon_q409idbs5m40a
Guest
Missouri I have no line of sight for them -- haven't watched them since the last time we played them -- which was last year of course
I have no idea what happens there but tradition and a healthy dose of assumption tells me:
UK 73
Mizzou 62
And it'll be 'scrappy' -- watch for someone to get chippy in that one
I have no idea what happens there but tradition and a healthy dose of assumption tells me:
UK 73
Mizzou 62
And it'll be 'scrappy' -- watch for someone to get chippy in that one
PS; REALLY LIKE seeing the mid season out of conference game again
that used to be a tradition of sorts for UK every year --- hope it continues
having a nice high visibility out of conf game this time of year is….mighty-cool
that used to be a tradition of sorts for UK every year --- hope it continues
having a nice high visibility out of conf game this time of year is….mighty-cool
It's great we're getting a fresh start on worst thread of the year ideas.
This one may be an automatic top 5 contender
This one may be an automatic top 5 contender
We will beat Missouri by double digits on Wednesday. The Kansas game will be a tough one though. They are out for revenge over last seasons embarrassment plus it's at home where they almost never lose.
The only way we have a chance is if we stay out of foul trouble, we hit a good percentage of 3's, make our free throws, and then hope that the team we saw at Arkansas and, for the most part, against Vandy, shows up again.
I'm kind of ornery about picking against the Cats. Make it UK 85 KU 83 in overtime.
The only way we have a chance is if we stay out of foul trouble, we hit a good percentage of 3's, make our free throws, and then hope that the team we saw at Arkansas and, for the most part, against Vandy, shows up again.
I'm kind of ornery about picking against the Cats. Make it UK 85 KU 83 in overtime.
2 and 0 next week. Missouri is just awful and to be honest Kansas isn't playing much better than Missouri right now.
I don't think we lose to Mizzou either - at worst we have a poor showing because we're looking ahead; say, win by 8 instead of 18+.
I think how we come and play against Mizzou is important; one of the things these guys HAVE to learn is to not underestimate any team, no matter how bad they might be. That's happened often enough and has gotten us in trouble. That got us in trouble the 2nd half of the Auburn game - we put it on cruise control, the momentum shifted and we got our rears handed to us.
Its like you're thinking its 2-3 years ago and Mizzu has Pressey and Jabari Brown. Well they don't even have Gill Cesar and they suck. Like really, really suck.
We will win both games this week. I think UK is turning the corner and figuring out how to play together.
LOL at everyone Taking my 50% chance of winning seriously! I guess some sarcastic humor is a little to much right now. Obviously I over simplified the equation... (that was the humorous part). In theory every team has a 50% chance at winning because there are two teams on the court but other factors push the odds in one favor or the other. I thought everyone knew that. My quip was just that the odds of us winning in Lawrence were better than "Exactly 1%" as another poster said. No biggie though, my since of humor isn't for everyone...
MIssouri has about the same chance to win that game as I have of getting a date with Jessica Alba.
I think realistically, the Kansas game is the one one people should concern themselves with this week. Nothing about Kansas makes me think that Kentucky can't beat them though. Their best big is still Perry Ellis, and last year, he got outclassed by Marcus Lee and Alex Poythress. Bill Self almost refuses to play his best frontline players (who are true freshmen), and instead, he elects to play Landon Lucas and Jamari Traylor.
Not a difficult formula. You put Alex Poythress on Perry Ellis (Kansas' best scorer), you put Isaiah Briscoe (Kentucky's best defender) on Wayne Selden (Kansas' 2nd best scorer), and let Davonte Graham and Frank Mason try to outplay Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray (highly unlikely).
As long as Kentucky extends its defense like it has the past couple of games and defends Kansas well on the perimeter, I see no reason that this shouldn't be a win. It'll be tough because it's Allen Fieldhouse, but I'll always feel confident when it's Calipari and Kentucky vs Self and Kansas.
Not a difficult formula. You put Alex Poythress on Perry Ellis (Kansas' best scorer), you put Isaiah Briscoe (Kentucky's best defender) on Wayne Selden (Kansas' 2nd best scorer), and let Davonte Graham and Frank Mason try to outplay Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray (highly unlikely).
As long as Kentucky extends its defense like it has the past couple of games and defends Kansas well on the perimeter, I see no reason that this shouldn't be a win. It'll be tough because it's Allen Fieldhouse, but I'll always feel confident when it's Calipari and Kentucky vs Self and Kansas.
My comment was that there was less than 1% chance of Kentucky losing to Missouri AND beating Kansas in back to back games, if you use the projections listed on the link I posted. It gives Missouri a 4.1% chance of beating UK and it gives UK a 21.8% chance of beating Kansas.
4.1% x 21.8% =0.89% (less than 1%)
