...Jeff Capel will follow Coach K. Take it to the bank.
Oh man, no disrespect to you (you know Duke much better than I do), or to Jeff Capel (the person & player -- or even coach), but we're talking about following Coach K, so I just think Capel would be a terrible, terrible move on Duke's part (and I trust the Duke AD to carefully consider everything), and I think Capel's lackluster-to-mediocre career coaching record speaks for itself (volumes), especially in light of how many other, much better & more experienced* Coach K assistants there are out there (* by 'experienced' I mean time on the bench next to Coach K, or head-coaching experience, or both).
Note: In my post above, please compare those other former Duke assistant coaches' numbers (and years as Duke assistants) to Capel' numbers. Capel's resume is NOTHING like that of several others.
I mean, overall, Jeff Capel's head coaching record has not been impressive -- period -- let alone when discussing him as a potential Coach K replacement at a 'blueblood' program.
Following is Capel's record at VCU (in [the meager] Colonial Athletic Association), and conference finish-place:
2002-03: 18-10, 2nd
2003-04: 23-8, 1st
2004-05: 19-13, 2nd
2005-06: 19-10, 5th
Following is Capel's record at Oklahoma, and conference finish-place:
2006-07: 16-15, 7th
2007-08: 23-12, 4th
2008-09: 30-6, 2nd
2009-10: 13-18, 11th
2010-11: 14-18, 8th
So, in Capel's nine seasons as head coach, he won over 19 games only three times (only twice in a 'power conference'), and placed 5th or lower four times (including 8th and 11th place finishes).
He's only been a coach K assistant for four seasons (!) - total. Compare that to some of the other K assistants (Brey, Amaker, Dawkins...even Bender). Also, compare Capel's years of experience as a head coach (or lack thereof) to other K assistants.
Besides, I strongly suspect Duke and Coach K would value "number of years on the Duke bench, as an assistant" (total number of years learning K's system) (in certain circumstances) almost as much as number of years as a head coach (e.g., Kansas picking long-time Dean Smith assistant Roy Williams, who'd never coached a single college game). Ideally, though, you'd want a coaching replacement who's had a LOT of years on the Duke bench, PLUS one who's had a lot of coaching years -- successful, strong-reputation years -- as a HC in a power conference...see Brey or Amaker, esp. Brey...if he isn't too old by then. Even if you couldn't get one of those two, I think you'd go after Dawkins, who has, at times, really impressed me at Stanford. If I couldn't get any of those guys, before considering Capel, I'd at least look at Northwestern's Chris Collins, just because he was on that Duke bench for 13 seasons (and he played for K, too).
Steve Wojo's very long stint on the Duke bench ended just recently, and I think he'll do very, very well at Marquette.
So anyway, I just don't see how Capel could be a logical 1st-choice replacement...or even 4th or 5th.
(ps, The year Capel's OU team won 30 games, he had Blake Griffin, plus 2nd-round pick Willie Warren, plus 'still-playing-pro-in-Europe' Tony Crocker.)