The Crystal Ball Fallacy

[Newcattitudes]

all these gurus place their percentage of picks correctly made beside their name. They however often change their minds during the entire process. I place ZERO credibility in any of their early picks. I could get as many right as the vast majority of these quote unquote experts. 90% of these guys piggy back one or two insiders with any somewhat valid info.

UK was their choice for Williamson until they heard that a couple of his buddy's had been offered by ku. I heard from a credible source (coach in D1) that Williamson was heading to UK. Williamson and Quickley were all the news two weeks ago. While my info was from last spring, his love of UK had been consistent for 5 months. I don't think it changes all that quick.

We'll see, but When all the dust settles, it's probably going to be UK not ku.

 

[Blueblood22]

Probably leaked out from Williamson's camp to put more drama in his recruitment, since Quickley/Williamson to UK has been all the talk for a few months now.

He's a big time name already, but they still want some intrigue when he has the ESPNU hat table announcement.

 

[Ineverplayedthegame]

Don't discount Addidas money. It's real.

 

[bigbluedon]

The crystal ball is the dumbest thing that has come out in recruiting that i have ever seen. Just plain silly. My cats know as much as these so called pundits do.

 

[BostonCat2001]

i dont mind the crystal ball, i like that guys put their names on the line. but its so biased. i mean....slater interviews zion, asks about every school BUT uk....makes a non-uk pick. i mean...come on

 

[MWes11]

The crystal ball is the dumbest thing that has come out in recruiting that i have ever seen. Just plain silly. My cats know as much as these so called pundits do.

 

[bkr5]

I believe R.J Barrett now in the 2018 class, UK's being on his short list might have given him a pause!

 

[DerekMcPwn]

The Crystal Ball "expert" prediction accuracy scoring is time-weighted, by which I mean the analyst gets more points if he predicts PJ Washington to UK in June 2015 and leaves his pick untouched through to commitment than if he picks Washington to UK the day before PJ declares. So, yes, the analysts flip-flop all the time, but their weighted accuracy ranking will suffer for it.

 

[Newcattitudes]

The Crystal Ball "expert" prediction accuracy scoring is time-weighted, by which I mean the analyst gets more points if he predicts PJ Washington to UK in June 2015 and leaves his pick untouched through to commitment than if he picks Washington to UK the day before PJ declares. So, yes, the analysts flip-flop all the time, but their weighted accuracy ranking will suffer for it.

That would make sense. Thanks for clarifying that for me.

 

[Newcattitudes]

i dont mind the crystal ball, i like that guys put their names on the line. but its so biased. i mean....slater interviews zion, asks about every school BUT uk....makes a non-uk pick. i mean...come on

Looks like Fake "Recruiting" News to me. Lol. I pay as much attention to those Duke insiders as I do CNN. NADA!

 

[Smashcat]

all these gurus place their percentage of picks correctly made beside their name. They however often change their minds during the entire process. I place ZERO credibility in any of their early picks. I could get as many right as the vast majority of these quote unquote experts. 90% of these guys piggy back one or two insiders with any somewhat valid info.

UK was their choice for Williamson until they heard that a couple of his buddy's had been offered by ku. I heard from a credible source (coach in D1) that Williamson was heading to UK. Williamson and Quickley were all the news two weeks ago. While my info was from last spring, his love of UK had been consistent for 5 months. I don't think it changes all that quick.

We'll see, but When all the dust settles, it's probably going to be UK not ku.

It's just something to talk about as much as anything. Just like preseason polls.

 

[morgousky]

Kansas insiders are wrong more than the crystal ball. Lord, they literally call nearly every target a KU lean. And tbey really try and kick and scream kids their way.

Most of it is traffic driven. They know KU fans want them, probably know they aren't getting them, but Zion brings fans to the board, last years transfer doesn't.

 

[LeonThe Camel]

The crystal ball is the dumbest thing that has come out in recruiting that i have ever seen. Just plain silly. My cats know as much as these so called pundits do.

Almost as bad as bracketology.

 

[Mr_GG]

Jerry Meyer

 

[The_Answer1313]

There is something to be said about the Wisdom of the Crowds.

Typically a group will be better at predicting something than any one person.

Having said that, it only works if the group is independent of one another.

This ......someone changes their pick and it seems like 3 others follow suit based on that.

That's where it falls flat.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

There is something to be said about the Wisdom of the Crowds.

My favorite is when the 'crowds' read something on KSR and then come here to act like an expert with an insider....

 

[khuff80]

Kansas insiders are wrong more than the crystal ball. Lord, they literally call nearly every target a KU lean. And tbey really try and kick and scream kids their way.

Most of it is traffic driven. They know KU fans want them, probably know they aren't getting them, but Zion brings fans to the board, last years transfer doesn't.

Wow are you ever wrong!!!!! Do you know KU recruiting? Our stance is EVERYONE's favored for UK or Duke over us.....maybe 'zona if they're from the West or southern TX. IF UK or Duke are already 4 deep at a pos., then MAYBE KU has a shot at a player. We've learned over too many years in too many recruitments that we thought were slam dunks only to see noted players choose those 3 to know better.....also why our greatest confidence in landing an '18 recruit is mid-30s ranked Devon Dotson. Got a visit in a couple of weeks & many think could commit early a'la Garrett last season. Chances are they'll still land 1 or 2 top 25 players but other than a possible "lean" from Top 25 5-star Combo. G, Grimes, not too much other confidence of surely landing ANYONE else.

Must be nice to be a UK fan and "have it easy" KNOWING that you'll land 6 recruits in the Top 30-35 w/ likely 3 of those in the top dozen or so.

 

[FFWhite]

The appearance of "slam dunks" for Kansas are created by their insiders. I believe they do this to get hits from their followers. Kansas is not in on many kids this year because they have filled their class with transfers. Not many needs for Kansas next year. 99% of the schools would be having a feast and slaughtering the fatted calf if they had a bunch of high end transfers practicing and getting ready to hit the court next year.

 

[morgousky]

Wow are you ever wrong!!!!! Do you know KU recruiting? Our stance is EVERYONE's favored for UK or Duke over us.....maybe 'zona if they're from the West or southern TX. IF UK or Duke are already 4 deep at a pos., then MAYBE KU has a shot at a player. We've learned over too many years in too many recruitments that we thought were slam dunks only to see noted players choose those 3 to know better.....also why our greatest confidence in landing an '18 recruit is mid-30s ranked Devon Dotson. Got a visit in a couple of weeks & many think could commit early a'la Garrett last season. Chances are they'll still land 1 or 2 top 25 players but other than a possible "lean" from Top 25 5-star Combo. G, Grimes, not too much other confidence of surely landing ANYONE else.

Must be nice to be a UK fan and "have it easy" KNOWING that you'll land 6 recruits in the Top 30-35 w/ likely 3 of those in the top dozen or so.

Unlucky for you, I was a regular at the shiver. 8/10 targerts were usually called kansas leans at one time or another. Matt is a horrible, and I mean horrible insider. You boys lap it up, miss the recruits, and come back for more.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Unlucky for you, I was a regular at the shiver. 8/10 targerts were usually called kansas leans at one time or another. Matt is a horrible, and I mean horrible insider. You boys lap it up, miss the recruits, and come back for more.

Those guys just tell the KU fans what they want to hear. They really don't think they will get everyone they say they will get.

They are like Hoover and Maggard back during the Tubby/BCG era in that they are always positive because the fans want to hear the positives.

Remember when Hoover pretty much guaranteed we would get Wright, Young, Thompson, and Kemp?

We thought that was about as good a recruiting class as anyone could get, until Cal came around. That class wouldn't even make Cal's top five here at UK.