If the 2021 OLine were on the roster, I’d be right there with you.
However, until the OLine shows that it is hugely improved from 2022, it’s just too hard for me to say this Cats team can compete with and beat every team on the schedule.
The case for and against Kentucky football in 2023
- Thread starter JRowland
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If the 2021 OLine were on the roster, I’d be right there with you.
However, until the OLine shows that it is hugely improved from 2022, it’s just too hard for me to say this Cats team can compete with and beat every team on the schedule.
One thing about it no one can say the staff didn't go balls-to-the-wall in the portal to fix the issues with the Oline, but as you say, the proof will be what they do on the field together as a unit. Yenser will really be under the spotlight this year. He's got the pieces to work with so there will be no excuses for another lackluster performance. I like Yenser he has a very impressive background and would seem to be a great fit for this staff. I'm pulling for him to succeed.
I believe it's 3 of the last 5 - 2018, 2021, 2022. And honestly, other than 2016 and to some extent 2020, this game has been competitive since 2014, with UF squeaking out some very fortunate wins (2014, 2017, 2019) despite UK probably being the better team. I agree this game has flipped. I'm more confident about it than many others.
I still find it hard to believe UF fired Mullen not even a year after that 2020 season. They were one thrown shoe away from making the CFP if I recall. The fans/boosters seem to be in that mode of wanting instant success and barely able to put up with one down year. So I would not be surprised if Napier is gone by the end of the season.
^^
As I see things now, this and Leary's health (which are linked) are the biggest keys to our 2023 football season.
Yenser has a career shaping opportunity at UK. But Austin Ramsey and Koby Keenum have been his only recruiting wins. Presumably Marques Cox and Courtland Ford transferred to UK to learn from him. So far, though, he has whiffed as a recruiter in 2024. If our OL's performance doesn't get a lot better this fall, I don't see how Yenser lasts here another season. I am inclined to give our coaches the benefit of the doubt, but Yenser is in a tricky situation. All UK OL coaches are compared to John Schlarman.
For the record, I totally agree with you, and I think there is reason for optimism, but it is just somewhat cautious optimism for me at this point.
Low expectations vs last year is the biggest difference. If Coen can help at all it gives the defense a chance to rest and recharge. Nobody expects anything from special teams as well.
I am excited by Coach Coen's return. When I look back at what Coen accomplished statistically with our 2021 offense, and considering that he did it by getting the football into the right players' hands, my expectations for 2023 are strong.
I will take a different view on our special teams, which probably would have been the worst in all of FBS ball last year if not for a couple of huge kickoff returns by Barion. IMO, the Boulware hire has already made an obvious difference. Boulware brought in a couple of new placekickers, two new long snappers, and at least one new punter. Whoever wins those jobs will have to do it by persevering in practice. The competition will be much more intense than in prior years. Boulware is all over this. I am confident he will produce a big improvement. And Barion will still be returning kickoffs.
Ball State - W - Cupcake
EKU - W - Cupcake
@Vandy - W - Close Win
Florida - W - Easy Dub at home
@UGA - L - Not Happening
Mizzou - W - Close win
UT - W - Close Win or Close Loss
@Miss. St. - L - We just can't win there to end the series
Alabama - L - Nope - a little down but the talent is too much
@USC - L - They have the mojo back
Louisville - W - Brohm loses to The Cats
7-4 or 6-5
EKU - W - Cupcake
@Vandy - W - Close Win
Florida - W - Easy Dub at home
@UGA - L - Not Happening
Mizzou - W - Close win
UT - W - Close Win or Close Loss
@Miss. St. - L - We just can't win there to end the series
Alabama - L - Nope - a little down but the talent is too much
@USC - L - They have the mojo back
Louisville - W - Brohm loses to The Cats
7-4 or 6-5
IMO, something important to consider is that our special teams should be sufficiently improved for us to steal a game or two this season, IOW sort of the opposite of last year when our special teams blew a couple of games. I agree we will handle Vandy, FL, and UL. Weeks #6-10 will tell the tale of our 2023 season. Where I am inclined to disagree with you is that I believe we should beat MS St and SCal. I am not sure what happens against TN and AL. Those two will be very tough battles in which we will be underdogs, but our quality defense makes both potentially winnable if we play our best.
Cool, except we play 12 games. You left out Akron, which should be an easy win. Anything between 7-5 and 10-2 is possible, but I think the likely landing spot is 8-4. I also think we win our bowl game to go 9-4, for an overall solid season.
If I recall, a big reason behing Mullen's firing was how he was trending towards the future, especially on the recruiting front. His recruiting was piss poor, at least by Florida standards. It didn't help when he made those public statements downplaying the importance of working hard on the recruiting trail. As you can see, Napier is now paying for Mullen's recruiting.
Oops! I was at work when I dont this and I had to hurry up and submit and hide the screen haha! yeah Akron - cupcake hah
I don't understand people bashing Mullen for his recruiting. His last 3 years were ranked #7, 10 and 20. I guess the 20 is kinda low for Florida. That is an average of #12 over 3 years. I think more than anything was his brash personality rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. UF fans were ok with Mullen when they were winning 10 games a year but the only down year he had (when he whiffed on the QB) got him fired.
As I stated earlier, I still have questions about the OL and this UK team in general. However, I question USCe and MSU just as much, so I don't think those are automatic losses either even though they are on the road.
USC beat us last season at home (24-14) and Miss. State - we just cant win there. They are 15-6 at home against us. UK has not won in Starkville since 2008 - winning 14-13.
I just don't see us winning these 2 on the road.
To offer the counterargument, our home loss to SCar last year was Kaiya Sheron's first and only Power 5 start. I don't believe we would have lost that game if Levis had played, but OTOH I have to be honest in observing it was one of Scan's worst game plans of his brief tenure. This year we have Coach Coen back and our offense should be much more effective than it was on October 8. Our special teams will be improved too. Our defense is REALLY good. Plus, Stoops is way pissed. Stoops has won in Carolumbia before and I feel we will get the job done this year.
MS St has a new coaching staff. Zach Arnett has never been a Power 5 HC before and Matt Brock has never been a DC before. That doesn't mean they won't be successful in StarkVegas, but there will be a period of adjustment and it might take most of the fall. Last year in Lexington, we beat MS St 27-17. I believe our 2023 offense and special teams are much better than 2022. We should be no worse than 6-2 and playing for national ranking when we play this game. I think we get over the hump and win it because we have the better team.
But we will have to wait and see.
UT game is most interesting to me. Can we figure out how to play fast enough on D too get some stops?
I think we will know quickly if they are better. Not fixed as you are right we will have to wait to play better teams. But if the OL can come out and play well against cupcakes that would be huge. Last year the OL was dominated by the cupcakes.
Last the OL:
Miami OH- gave up 4 sacks 26 rushes for 50 net rushing yards
Youngstown- gave up 4 sacks 36 rushes for 103 net rushing yards
N Illinois- gave up 5 sacks 35 rushes for 103 net rushing yards
Those are very very bad numbers. Like Joker Phillips era numbers bad. If we can keep things clean against Ball St that would be a huge first step. Sad to put it that way but that’s how bad the OL was last year.
It is not just an issue of playing fast on defense. That is part of it. But the main thing is that Stoops and White use a lot of zone coverages. But Heupel forces one on one coverage on the outside with his sets. Our CB gets one shot to make a clean tackle. If the tackle is missed, TN gets an explosive play out of it. Coach White doesn't get outsmarted much, but last year's TN game was an exception to that. He will need a better and more carefully designed defensive game plan this time, and our DBs have to play better.
I understand what you are saying. But I already believe our 2023 OL will be much improved. Horsey and Eli are back at OG where they are more experienced and naturally suited. Back when Burton was recruited and signed, there was conjecture at the time that he would become a C. I understood the reasoning and believe he will do well there because of his athleticism and football IQ. At OT, we are bigger, deeper, and better now because of the portal. Coach Coen will do a better job than Scan of making sure everyone is on the same page. Last year, there were a lot of clueless blown assignments that I don't expect to see this fall.
I agree with this. My counter to your counter is that the timing of each of these games is terrible.
We play South Carolina the week after a titanic home game against Bama and a week before we play archival UL at the end of November. Timing for USC couldn't be worse.
We play MSU on the road a week after playing UT. I don't like it.
The timing of a game can be important. But in the SEC, every week is a challenge. Coaches will tell you that they take one week at a time. Let's say UK plays AL tougher than you expect. Then we would travel to Carolumbia as a confident team. I don't think UL has anything to do with it.
At the end of the day, though, MS St and SCar are road games. So maybe the real question here is about growth of Stoops' program. By producing improvement in all three phases, offense, defense, and STs, are we ready now to become a more consistent football team on the road? I believe the answer is yes. I just hope Leary is healthy for both of these games. So we will find out.
Those are good points. However, if the Cats are playing for a 9-10 win type season and/or 2nd place SEC east finish, I don't think the placement of that USC game will matter too much.
I agree that I don't like the MSU game after the UT game... especially if the Cats beat UT.
Yes, these are definitely not good numbers and have to be better. If they are not better for our first four games, then we might have a problem on our hands.
I also hope that Leary does a better job of not taking a sack than Levis did.
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