North Texas and Houston is an interesting game to check out this week.
Sports Betting & Poker
- Thread starter -COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-
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I hit Houston pretty hard when the line swung in their favor. I think the bookmakers over adjusted for King being gone. Houston still has talent, and a very good coach. North Texas may win, but i like having the more talented team 9 (all while being a little dis-functional), plus 6 points.
feel free to add your opinion, that is exactly what this thread is for. They call it "Walk me off the ledge", unless you also like Houston. Even so, tell me why Houston is the play.
feel free to add your opinion, that is exactly what this thread is for. They call it "Walk me off the ledge", unless you also like Houston. Even so, tell me why Houston is the play.
I just think a QB like King along with their best WR is good enough for a TD difference especially on a team that needs to score because of their defense.
Ii only bet CFB if I know its a slam dunk like Oregon-10 @ stanford. I dont have enough time to know about every team in CFB. NFL's 32 is much more manageable. I get NFL spreads are "harder" but I usually only pick 4 lines max to play any given Sunday. Also regardless of which division of football I usually only bet on teams with solid QB play, especially in college. QB is the premium position to look at first in gambling and his matchups across the board.
Very nice write up, good luck! Have any thoughts on Packers (-4.5) to cover and the Jags ML over Denver? Have those along with Chiefs to cover and the Vikings ML you wrote about. $20 to win $410
See I know nothing about Houston other than one of their players just redshirted and Herman was the coach there years ago. If y'all find some stellar lines I'll def look into em
Yeah I'll look into those games and tell you what I think.
Ps Last time Mahomes threw in a dome was in college and it was for 600 yards and 6 TDs. That doesn't really mean much but it gets me hard lol
Ok...Week 5
Leans:
GaTech @ Temple -8 (-110)
Temple enjoyed some early success with a win over Maryland (20-17) before stumbling last week against Buffalo (38-22). This is the perfect spot for them to rebound vs Geoff Collins and a bad Yellow Jackets team.
Stanford @ Oregon St +4.5 (-108)
Oregon St has lost two games against high powered passing attacks - Oklahoma State and Hawaii. The Beavers have had an extra week to prepare and get healthy. Stanford, meanwhile, has a passing game that's still evolving, and is coming off four physical contests. KJ Costello is questionable and Paulson Adebo hasn't lived up to expectations. This is a good spot for the Cardinal to get back on track, but I give a slight edge to Oregon St based off what I've seen. Take the points.
SMU -7.5 @ USF (-105)
SMU has wins against North Texas (49-27) and TCU (41-38). The Mustangs are 4-0 SU and ATS; 2-0 ATS in away games. USF hasn't looked impressive in losses to Wisconsin (49-0) and Ga Tech (14-10). This is a bet on a good team and against a bad team.
Arizona St @ Cal UN 42 (-105)
Two good defenses. Both teams, offensively, are still a work in progress and 1-3 O/U. This is a low total but I've liked the under since it opened at 40.5.
Northern Illinois @ Vanderbilt -6.5 (-106)
Vanderbilt has played LSU, Georgia and on the road at Purdue. Northern Illinois had to deal with Utah and Nebraska. Both teams get a break this week against each other. The Commodores won't be facing a future NFL quarterback. North Illinois hasn't been able to move the chains (21.3% on 3rd down). Vanderbilt should pick up their first win of the season.
Locks:
Houston @ North Texas -6 (-110)
North Texas has losses to SMU (49-27) and Cal (23-17), neither of which are bad teams. Houston will be without D'Eriq King and Keith Corbin after both decided to redshirt. I missed this line before it was pulled at -3 but still like the Mean Green by more than a TD.
New Mexico @ Liberty -7 (-109)
This is a long trip and bad spot for New Mexico after a shootout win against their in-state rival, New Mexico St (55-52).
Moneylines/Parlay:
AF ML vs SJSU (-925)
Hammond might be out for AF, but it shouldn't matter. It's a short week prep for the triple option and back-to-back travel and altitude for SJSU.
W. Michigan ML vs C. Michigan (-770)
The Chips might show up like last week in a close loss to Miami, but the Broncos have won six of the last eight and are big favorites again at home.
App St ML vs Coastal Carolina (-660)
The Mountaineers played a physical game last week. Coastal Carolina runs a triple option offense and might cover the spread but App St wins in the Rock.
Fresno St ML vs NMSU (-920)
An Aggie win here would be a monumental upset - NMSU is a bad team.
TCU ML vs Kansas (-660)
TCU lost last week to SMU, but the Mustangs are better than most predicted. This is another bet against a bad team.
5 team ML Parlay (-119)
Might add a couple live bets this week, but no more than two.
I don't bet more than 20% of my bankroll in one week or on one game. This week I'm betting 1 unit on leans and moneylines, 2 units on locks and five units on a 5 team moneyline parlay.
Here is my week 4 recap: CFB - Betting Lines/Spreads
Leans:
GaTech @ Temple -8 (-110)
Temple enjoyed some early success with a win over Maryland (20-17) before stumbling last week against Buffalo (38-22). This is the perfect spot for them to rebound vs Geoff Collins and a bad Yellow Jackets team.
Stanford @ Oregon St +4.5 (-108)
Oregon St has lost two games against high powered passing attacks - Oklahoma State and Hawaii. The Beavers have had an extra week to prepare and get healthy. Stanford, meanwhile, has a passing game that's still evolving, and is coming off four physical contests. KJ Costello is questionable and Paulson Adebo hasn't lived up to expectations. This is a good spot for the Cardinal to get back on track, but I give a slight edge to Oregon St based off what I've seen. Take the points.
SMU -7.5 @ USF (-105)
SMU has wins against North Texas (49-27) and TCU (41-38). The Mustangs are 4-0 SU and ATS; 2-0 ATS in away games. USF hasn't looked impressive in losses to Wisconsin (49-0) and Ga Tech (14-10). This is a bet on a good team and against a bad team.
Arizona St @ Cal UN 42 (-105)
Two good defenses. Both teams, offensively, are still a work in progress and 1-3 O/U. This is a low total but I've liked the under since it opened at 40.5.
Northern Illinois @ Vanderbilt -6.5 (-106)
Vanderbilt has played LSU, Georgia and on the road at Purdue. Northern Illinois had to deal with Utah and Nebraska. Both teams get a break this week against each other. The Commodores won't be facing a future NFL quarterback. North Illinois hasn't been able to move the chains (21.3% on 3rd down). Vanderbilt should pick up their first win of the season.
Locks:
Houston @ North Texas -6 (-110)
North Texas has losses to SMU (49-27) and Cal (23-17), neither of which are bad teams. Houston will be without D'Eriq King and Keith Corbin after both decided to redshirt. I missed this line before it was pulled at -3 but still like the Mean Green by more than a TD.
New Mexico @ Liberty -7 (-109)
This is a long trip and bad spot for New Mexico after a shootout win against their in-state rival, New Mexico St (55-52).
Moneylines/Parlay:
AF ML vs SJSU (-925)
Hammond might be out for AF, but it shouldn't matter. It's a short week prep for the triple option and back-to-back travel and altitude for SJSU.
W. Michigan ML vs C. Michigan (-770)
The Chips might show up like last week in a close loss to Miami, but the Broncos have won six of the last eight and are big favorites again at home.
App St ML vs Coastal Carolina (-660)
The Mountaineers played a physical game last week. Coastal Carolina runs a triple option offense and might cover the spread but App St wins in the Rock.
Fresno St ML vs NMSU (-920)
An Aggie win here would be a monumental upset - NMSU is a bad team.
TCU ML vs Kansas (-660)
TCU lost last week to SMU, but the Mustangs are better than most predicted. This is another bet against a bad team.
5 team ML Parlay (-119)
Might add a couple live bets this week, but no more than two.
I don't bet more than 20% of my bankroll in one week or on one game. This week I'm betting 1 unit on leans and moneylines, 2 units on locks and five units on a 5 team moneyline parlay.
Here is my week 4 recap: CFB - Betting Lines/Spreads
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You know I went last wk and I didn't realize you had to pay the juice on every bet ,I said 100 on atlanta not thinking and it paid 90 I was like wow I thought you only had to pay juice on a lose ! I'm just used to bookies I guess!
I do not feel to confident about the Packers -4.5. I feel like they will come out and dominate the Eagles, get a nice lead, then have a special teams play completely change the momentum of the game. Packers will struggle to run the ball, and trying to do too much, Rogers will throw a crucial INT at the end of the game inside the 2 yard line.
I have never paid juice on a win. NEVER. You need to look for another book.
JOE :
Health on the Houston / N. Texas game. We are on opposite sides.
I never like to use the L word. Seems like every time I do, it losses. And the L word I am talking about is not Lose.
Every book Ive ever been too has juice on every spread.
Packers were a bad beat. 2 goaline drives down to the one in the 4th and came away with 0 points ouch. let me know if you go make another parlay or bet and ill write the games up for you
Juice on a loss, not on a win. Never seen one.
Example, If I bet New England -12 on a straight bet, If i bet $100, my winnings is $100, not $100 - 10% juice, thus only receiving $90. Been gambling over 30 years, never paid juice on a win.
Joe, do you care to weigh in on the juice for winning discussion ??
NIce try - you had me going for a minute
Yeah, I was not being a smart ass or anything, just making light on the subject, I lost on it also. But man, over 44 never was in jeopardy. Had some nice hits on the live betting and 1st half and quarters last night. Green Bay had a total of 6.5 for 1st qtr and 13.5 for half. I got lucky on the 13.5, they where sitting at 13 when they got the ball with 53 seconds to go before half. I had all ready conceived that bet, did not even feel confident a FG would happen. Eagles over 13.5 second half was easy money. Lost the -4.5 and some props though. Took Carson Wentz over 12.5 completions for the second half, he got 6 in the first drive. Ended up with 10 for the whole second half. Aguliar over 25 receiving yards. Never got close.
Yeah man, didn’t see their defense getting absolutely abused like that either. Oh well. Right now I’m trying to limit myself to just one or two bets a week, mostly because of having to drive over to Indiana but I’ll gladly take one on next weeks games later on. If I’m only betting $20 at a time are parlays just about the only thing worth throwing money on? New at betting so I’ll take some actual betting strategies as well
How o you pay juice on a loss? Ive always payed juice my whole life.
Parlays if youre going for big cash. I like taking couple hundred bucks and spreading it around some days just for the fun of having multiple teams to cheer for.
Betting early can be good and bad. Example: Matt Stafford popped up as questionable on the injury report. Good for me. Chargers put a lot on the injury report Mike Will, Justin Jackson, travis benjamin. Thats bad, but silver lining Melvin gordon may get a good amount of reps?
Hey Runt, what college games do you like this weekend ? Thinking about heading over to Winner’s Circle and playing a few games tmrw. Thx
Yes. If you bet $100 on New England -12 at -100 it would pay $100 in winnings.
Short answer is that it's semantics. Juice is what a bookmaker charges a bettor for placing a wager and you can't get around paying it.
1. Duke +2.5 (-110)
2. VT -2.5 (-110)
I bet $100 on Duke. You bet $100 on VT. Hokies cover and you collect a $190.90 payout. If it were an even odds bet you would make $100 profit on a $100 wager. The $9.10 that is withheld from the bettor is the juice.
The money line might be something like:
1. Duke +220
2. VT -260
You want to look at the implied probabilities (risk/return) which represent how often you need to win on average to break even:
Duke = $100 bet / ($100 stake + $220 win)
= 100/320 = 0.31 = 31%
VT = $260 bet / ($260 stake + $100 win)
= 260/360 = 0.72 = 72%
The reason the probabilities total greater than 100% is the juice. The bookmaker is charging a little more for bets on the favorite and paying less than they should for bets on the underdog. No spread, and really, no bet, offers even odds. Sportsbooks would lose a lot of money.
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Well it's the winners circle that takes juice on all bets ...my bookies get juice when I lose bet only ....
Been gambling over 30 years. I know what juice is. I am saying I have never bet a game ( a straight bet), team plus / minus the spread, or bet on the total, win a bet , and have to pay juice. Never in my life. If i bet $100, my spread covers, I win $100. Period. HTF does anybody come out ahead paying juice win or lose ???
RUPP, trust me brother, I know what gambling is. Maybe I am wrong, but ALL of your post directed at me is coming off as "know it all", condescending post. Also, Houston is not -6, they are / where +6. If you got them -6, you had better get your ass on your site and get them +6. Be a hell of a middle.
RUPP, trust me brother, I know what gambling is. Maybe I am wrong, but ALL of your post directed at me is coming off as "know it all", condescending post. Also, Houston is not -6, they are / where +6. If you got them -6, you had better get your ass on your site and get them +6. Be a hell of a middle.
It's all a bunch of semantics - that's what I'm saying.
The standard odds on straight bets at most places is -110 for CFB games; it varies from sport-to-sport and from book-to-book.
What you're describing is a $100 bet on New England -12 at even money or -100 odds; the payout if you win is $200 ($100 stake + $100 win).
Same $100 bet on New England -12 at -110 odds; the payout if you win is $190.90 ($100 stake + $90.90 win).
The odds give a spread an advantage and are the juice for the book - it's collected on losing bets and not paid on winning bets. Even money doesn't mean it's a 50/50 wager. Again, it's semantics.
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Bet on Vandy-6.5.
Northern Illinois down 14 in the middle of 4th qtr scores a TD and their coach decides to go for 2??? They get it and cut the score to 24-18. That was the final haha
Northern Illinois down 14 in the middle of 4th qtr scores a TD and their coach decides to go for 2??? They get it and cut the score to 24-18. That was the final haha
Yeah, I hear you lol. I was shaking my head at that too
Was in that same sinking boat. OK, done betting Vandy for the year. They are a haint. Just bad juju messing with them.
You win that one more often than not, though, up 14 early in the fourth. That was just a weird call
I got the O/U parlay on A&M v Hogs and Michigan/Rutgers. Only bet Ive hit so far. I had a 6 team spread parlay, dont remember what other games I had in it because A&M shot me in the foot right out of the gate today. Ive got a few round robins still in play, hoping to net roughly $80-90 off $20 bet overall today at this point. Not a good day, but any day where you win more than you lose isnt all bad. Ive been on a tear so I guess I was due.
UCF vs UCONN. I missed this one - the 1H spread was UCF -28. The Knights covered that in the first quarter lol. It was 42-0 at halftime
I’d love to put checkmarks by Auburn and OSU-Columbus’s spreads but I’m still traumatized from last week no thanks to Wazzou (-1000). Running total of wasted +100 or better moneyline picks because I parlayed them with losers, no thanks to Wisconsin.
Toledo, Miami (OH), with Wisconsin -25 at +118.
Baylor with Vanderbilt (-6.5) early in the week, the half-point devil is laughing below.
And if it holds up, Houston (+205, +140 early in week) both with Kentucky +3.
No bueno. Still have a few winners but this week was a wash. On to tomorrow, friends.
P.S. What is the matter with coaches going for two? Both NFL and college. Analytics has ruined baseball, I guess football is next.
Toledo, Miami (OH), with Wisconsin -25 at +118.
Baylor with Vanderbilt (-6.5) early in the week, the half-point devil is laughing below.
And if it holds up, Houston (+205, +140 early in week) both with Kentucky +3.
No bueno. Still have a few winners but this week was a wash. On to tomorrow, friends.
P.S. What is the matter with coaches going for two? Both NFL and college. Analytics has ruined baseball, I guess football is next.
Nice call on Toledo. That was a good situational bet, as was Vanderbilt. Evaluating bets is where most people struggle, including myself sometimes
I wanna say I’m smart but I think I just pulled those outta my behind.
I got a little revenge on UCLA. $23 profit! Only $477 more to go on them turds.
Better results this week but another Carolina loss
Week 5 Bets - CFB - Betting Lines/Spreads
Week 5 Results -
Leans:
1U - GaTech @ Temple -8 (-110) WIN!
Temple enjoyed some early success with a win over Maryland (20-17) before stumbling last week against Buffalo (38-22). This is the perfect spot for them to rebound vs Geoff Collins and a bad Yellow Jackets team.
1U - Stanford @ Oregon St +4.5 (-108) WIN!
Oregon St has lost two games against high powered passing attacks - Oklahoma State and Hawaii. The Beavers have had an extra week to prepare and get healthy. Stanford, meanwhile, has a passing game that's still evolving, and is coming off four physical contests. KJ Costello is questionable and Paulson Adebo hasn't lived up to expectations. This is a good spot for the Cardinal to get back on track, but I give a slight edge to Oregon St based off what I've seen. Take the points.
1U - SMU -7.5 @ USF (-105) WIN!
SMU has wins against North Texas (49-27) and TCU (41-38). The Mustangs are 4-0 SU and ATS; 2-0 ATS in away games. USF hasn't looked impressive in losses to Wisconsin (49-0) and Ga Tech (14-10). This is a bet on a good team and against a bad team.
1U - Arizona St @ Cal UN 42 (-105) WIN!
Two good defenses. Both teams, offensively, are still a work in progress and 1-3 O/U. This is a low total but I've liked the under since it opened at 40.5.
1U - N. Illinois @ Vandy -6.5 (-106) LOSS
Vanderbilt has played LSU, Georgia and on the road at Purdue. Northern Illinois had to deal with Utah and Nebraska. Both teams get a break this week against each other. The Commodores won't be facing a future NFL quarterback. North Illinois hasn't been able to move the chains (21.3% on 3rd down). Vanderbilt should pick up their first win of the season.
Locks:
2U - Houston @ North Texas -6 (-110) LOSS
North Texas has losses to SMU (49-27) and Cal (23-17), neither of which are bad teams. Houston will be without D'Eriq King and Keith Corbin after both decided to redshirt. I missed this line before it was pulled at -3 but still like the Mean Green by more than a TD.
2U - New Mexico @ Liberty -7 (-109) PUSH
This is a long trip and bad spot for New Mexico after a shootout win against their in-state rival, New Mexico St (55-52).
Moneylines/Parlay:
1U - AF ML vs SJSU (-925) WIN!
Hammond might be out for AF, but it shouldn't matter. It's a short week prep for the triple option and back-to-back travel and altitude for SJSU.
1U - W. Mich ML vs C. Mich (-770) WIN!
The Chips might show up like last week in a close loss to Miami, but the Broncos have won six of the last eight and are big favorites again at home.
1U - App St ML vs Coastal (-660) WIN!
The Mountaineers played a physical game last week. Coastal Carolina runs a triple option offense and might cover the spread but App St wins in the Rock.
1U - Fresno St ML vs NMSU (-920) WIN!
An Aggie win here would be a monumental upset - NMSU is a bad team.
1U - TCU ML vs Kansas (-660) WIN!
TCU lost last week to SMU, but the Mustangs are better than most predicted. This is another bet against a bad team.
5U - 5 team ML Parlay (-119) WIN!
Analysis:
There were some good matchups to bet on this week. I might ought to have upgraded SMU to a lock. Overall, I'm 6-3; 1 push ATS on leans and 1-2; 1 push ATS on locks. I would've been looking at another near wash had the ML parlay not been profitable. Still, up about 5.5 units over two weeks, so not bad.
Week W-L: 10-2; 1 Push
Week Total: +5.59 Units
Week ROI: +29.4%
Overall W-L: 13-5; 2 Push
Overall Total: +5.41 Units
Overall ROI: +19.3%
Week 5 Bets - CFB - Betting Lines/Spreads
Week 5 Results -
Leans:
1U - GaTech @ Temple -8 (-110) WIN!
Temple enjoyed some early success with a win over Maryland (20-17) before stumbling last week against Buffalo (38-22). This is the perfect spot for them to rebound vs Geoff Collins and a bad Yellow Jackets team.
1U - Stanford @ Oregon St +4.5 (-108) WIN!
Oregon St has lost two games against high powered passing attacks - Oklahoma State and Hawaii. The Beavers have had an extra week to prepare and get healthy. Stanford, meanwhile, has a passing game that's still evolving, and is coming off four physical contests. KJ Costello is questionable and Paulson Adebo hasn't lived up to expectations. This is a good spot for the Cardinal to get back on track, but I give a slight edge to Oregon St based off what I've seen. Take the points.
1U - SMU -7.5 @ USF (-105) WIN!
SMU has wins against North Texas (49-27) and TCU (41-38). The Mustangs are 4-0 SU and ATS; 2-0 ATS in away games. USF hasn't looked impressive in losses to Wisconsin (49-0) and Ga Tech (14-10). This is a bet on a good team and against a bad team.
1U - Arizona St @ Cal UN 42 (-105) WIN!
Two good defenses. Both teams, offensively, are still a work in progress and 1-3 O/U. This is a low total but I've liked the under since it opened at 40.5.
1U - N. Illinois @ Vandy -6.5 (-106) LOSS
Vanderbilt has played LSU, Georgia and on the road at Purdue. Northern Illinois had to deal with Utah and Nebraska. Both teams get a break this week against each other. The Commodores won't be facing a future NFL quarterback. North Illinois hasn't been able to move the chains (21.3% on 3rd down). Vanderbilt should pick up their first win of the season.
Locks:
2U - Houston @ North Texas -6 (-110) LOSS
North Texas has losses to SMU (49-27) and Cal (23-17), neither of which are bad teams. Houston will be without D'Eriq King and Keith Corbin after both decided to redshirt. I missed this line before it was pulled at -3 but still like the Mean Green by more than a TD.
2U - New Mexico @ Liberty -7 (-109) PUSH
This is a long trip and bad spot for New Mexico after a shootout win against their in-state rival, New Mexico St (55-52).
Moneylines/Parlay:
1U - AF ML vs SJSU (-925) WIN!
Hammond might be out for AF, but it shouldn't matter. It's a short week prep for the triple option and back-to-back travel and altitude for SJSU.
1U - W. Mich ML vs C. Mich (-770) WIN!
The Chips might show up like last week in a close loss to Miami, but the Broncos have won six of the last eight and are big favorites again at home.
1U - App St ML vs Coastal (-660) WIN!
The Mountaineers played a physical game last week. Coastal Carolina runs a triple option offense and might cover the spread but App St wins in the Rock.
1U - Fresno St ML vs NMSU (-920) WIN!
An Aggie win here would be a monumental upset - NMSU is a bad team.
1U - TCU ML vs Kansas (-660) WIN!
TCU lost last week to SMU, but the Mustangs are better than most predicted. This is another bet against a bad team.
5U - 5 team ML Parlay (-119) WIN!
Analysis:
There were some good matchups to bet on this week. I might ought to have upgraded SMU to a lock. Overall, I'm 6-3; 1 push ATS on leans and 1-2; 1 push ATS on locks. I would've been looking at another near wash had the ML parlay not been profitable. Still, up about 5.5 units over two weeks, so not bad.
Week W-L: 10-2; 1 Push
Week Total: +5.59 Units
Week ROI: +29.4%
Overall W-L: 13-5; 2 Push
Overall Total: +5.41 Units
Overall ROI: +19.3%
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Anyone use 5Dimes or are we all casino sportsbook people? They had DAL -2.4, yes you read that correctly. I wanted -2 but had to wager on the .4. They changed it it 2.5. Slimy turds!!!
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I've used them. They usually have some of the cheapest lines. Never had anything like that happen, though, that's terrible. I have had trouble cashing out before which is frustrating
Was just saying all spreads I bet are usually -110.
Lol at my locks going 0-2
leans 2-0 most likely.
Brady lays a duck and KC loses 3 fumbles in the 3rd qtr
Nice call there. I actually had North Texas as a slight favorite before King and Corbin redshirted.
