Did a little extra looking into USM. One thing I noticed on the back half of the season is a lot of misleading final scores in terms of not really describing how the entire game actually went.
Mississippi State:
Score was 20-26 with around 7:30 to go in the 4th quarter. That was with Will Rogers and Jaquavion Marks back, and essentially zero QB production (89 pass yards) from USM. With Frank Gore Jr having a very mediocre game (3ypc, 66 yards). Yet they were still in the game midway through the 4th before MSU got more rushing yards than any player had all day on one run late in the 4th, and then a pick 6 right after that from a really bad QB that had no business being in a position to have to throw.
Troy:
Score was 28-17 going into the 4th against 10-2 Troy, even after Troy recovered a fumble for a TD in the 3rd. Then former Cat Chris Lewis caught a 30yd TD pass to put it out of reach in the 4th. Once again, with no real threat in the passing game (132yds, 108 of which was to the RB and slot receiver on short checkdowns).
ULL:
Won in OT.
ULM:
Won pretty easily.
App State:
Was winning 38-28 in the 4th quarter before falling apart at the end.
I believe the Cats win this one. But I would caution (and hope to be proven horribly wrong) about assuming a blowout. Southern Miss in the final 5 games last year had no passing threat at all and still was in a 1 possession battle in the 4th with an SEC team, put up a solid fight against the SunBelt champs, and was beating the SunBelt runner up by double digits in the 4th. Michigan never beat any of their 3 G5 opponents last year by more than the current Vegas line for this game. Not that a Vegas line is a measuring point, but with G5 teams like this one that are now able to transfer in a handful of Power 4 guys, these games are only getting a bit harder IMO.
Mississippi State:
Score was 20-26 with around 7:30 to go in the 4th quarter. That was with Will Rogers and Jaquavion Marks back, and essentially zero QB production (89 pass yards) from USM. With Frank Gore Jr having a very mediocre game (3ypc, 66 yards). Yet they were still in the game midway through the 4th before MSU got more rushing yards than any player had all day on one run late in the 4th, and then a pick 6 right after that from a really bad QB that had no business being in a position to have to throw.
Troy:
Score was 28-17 going into the 4th against 10-2 Troy, even after Troy recovered a fumble for a TD in the 3rd. Then former Cat Chris Lewis caught a 30yd TD pass to put it out of reach in the 4th. Once again, with no real threat in the passing game (132yds, 108 of which was to the RB and slot receiver on short checkdowns).
ULL:
Won in OT.
ULM:
Won pretty easily.
App State:
Was winning 38-28 in the 4th quarter before falling apart at the end.
I believe the Cats win this one. But I would caution (and hope to be proven horribly wrong) about assuming a blowout. Southern Miss in the final 5 games last year had no passing threat at all and still was in a 1 possession battle in the 4th with an SEC team, put up a solid fight against the SunBelt champs, and was beating the SunBelt runner up by double digits in the 4th. Michigan never beat any of their 3 G5 opponents last year by more than the current Vegas line for this game. Not that a Vegas line is a measuring point, but with G5 teams like this one that are now able to transfer in a handful of Power 4 guys, these games are only getting a bit harder IMO.
