Some numbers crunching makes claim that Oweh is a net minus

[silentsaregolden2.0]

Saw a video from Sleepers Media who were talking about a guy name Evan something (sounded japanese) who has a new analytic "on/off", which claims to measure how a team does when a player is on the court versus when he's off it. Sounds like it's basically just the plus minus stat.

Anyway, according to him Oweh is in the middle of the pack, and is actually a net minus, but Butler and Carr were significantly better in that category. I suspect it has more to do with who is on the court with Oweh vs who is on with those guys. Regardless, it seems like a useless stat if it is making the claim that Oweh hurts us more than he helps.

 

[ukfan1622]

Saw a video from Sleepers Media who were talking about a guy name Evan something (sounded japanese) who has a new analytic "on/off", which claims to measure how a team does when a player is on the court versus when he's off it. Sounds like it's basically just the plus minus stat.

Anyway, according to him Oweh is in the middle of the pack, and is actually a net minus, but Butler and Carr were significantly better in that category. I suspect it has more to do with who is on the court with Oweh vs who is on with those guys. Regardless, it seems like a useless stat if it is making the claim that Oweh hurts us more than he helps.

Most of us that didn't already know learned last year that the combinations playing together matter, not just the total minutes individual players get.

 

[CrazyCat74]

I'm not sure about the +/- thing, but

What Oweh gives this team is toughness, defense, driving, confidence and consistent output night to night.

Which is invaluable to this group.

I cover my eyes with his touch of the backboard sometimes or his shot selection but they all do head scratching things from time to time.

 

[Fox2monk]

Saw a video from Sleepers Media who were talking about a guy name Evan something (sounded japanese) who has a new analytic "on/off", which claims to measure how a team does when a player is on the court versus when he's off it. Sounds like it's basically just the plus minus stat.

Anyway, according to him Oweh is in the middle of the pack, and is actually a net minus, but Butler and Carr were significantly better in that category. I suspect it has more to do with who is on the court with Oweh vs who is on with those guys. Regardless, it seems like a useless stat if it is making the claim that Oweh hurts us more than he helps.

Probably because Oweh is the only dude who is healthy consistently and is in the floor with everyone. He’s one of our most important players easily.

 

[Wonky]

Ahh… stat nerds. The kids who were never picked for a team at recess, so must come up with some way to feel included in sports.

Kind of like how Zuckerberg had no real-life friends, so he created Facebook where everybody can just project and be fake AF.

 

[Fox2monk]

Ahh… stat nerds. The kids who were never picked for a team at recess, so must come up with some way to feel included in sports.

Kind of like how Zuckerberg had no real-life friends, so he created Facebook where everybody can just project and be fake AF.

Some people just enjoy stats and then do have their place to help teams improve. I get what you are saying but it seems to me like journalists are worse about wanting to be a part of sports because they couldn’t play,

 

[Cold Stout Beer]

smh

 

[Cold Stout Beer]

Ahh… stat nerds. The kids who were never picked for a team at recess, so must come up with some way to feel included in sports.

Kind of like how Zuckerberg had no real-life friends, so he created Facebook where everybody can just project and be fake AF.

created or stole??

 

[Cleatortoises]

Saw a video from Sleepers Media who were talking about a guy name Evan something (sounded japanese) who has a new analytic "on/off", which claims to measure how a team does when a player is on the court versus when he's off it. Sounds like it's basically just the plus minus stat.

Anyway, according to him Oweh is in the middle of the pack, and is actually a net minus, but Butler and Carr were significantly better in that category. I suspect it has more to do with who is on the court with Oweh vs who is on with those guys. Regardless, it seems like a useless stat if it is making the claim that Oweh hurts us more than he helps.

Sounds like a shitty stat.
Disregard.
Carry on.

 

[chroix]

I’ll bet that guy any amount of money that my five from this team beats his five from this team if I have OO on my team and he does not. Ten times out of ten. Dumb stat is dumb.

 

[Someguywhodoesntlikeyou]

I’m guessing you’re talking about EvanMiya.

It’s a tool and a pretty good one. But it’s not the end all and be all. The math will never fully account for the human factor.

 

[STL_Cat]

Eye test tells me that stat is bullshite.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Stats will never be able to determine things like grit, confidence, and how well the team will play with said player on the floor (well ok that's +-, but the intangible aspect).

Oweh is one of the only players we have that can drive the basketball. He made very gutsy plays on offense that we just would not have done with out him. And I can't imagine our plus/minus being better if he's off the floor. If anything it just drops.

 

[Creed Bratton]

Ahh… stat nerds. The kids who were never picked for a team at recess, so must come up with some way to feel included in sports.

Kind of like how Zuckerberg had no real-life friends, so he created Facebook where everybody can just project and be fake AF.

Like this guy?

 

[Phil_The_Music]

Ahh… stat nerds. The kids who were never picked for a team at recess, so must come up with some way to feel included in sports.

Kind of like how Zuckerberg had no real-life friends, so he created Facebook where everybody can just project and be fake AF.

Umm. Our head coach is a stat nerd.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

Umm. Our head coach is a stat nerd.

Haha came here to say the same thing.

Our coaching staff is all over the analytics, both positive and negative.

You know who didn't care about analytics at all and considered them "stat nerds"? John Calipari.

 

[ukcatz12]

Umm. Our head coach is a stat nerd.

Yup. I always laugh at this board's comments on the analytics. If it doesn't match their opinion they hate the stat nerds and disregard the analytics. But if it does then anyone who disagrees is an idiot.

Guys like Evan Miyakawa are the same ones that said a certain lineup last year that Cal didn't use often was incredibly efficient. Cal was crucified for not listening to the analytics on that one. Our current offense is based on what the analytics say.

 

[Emarc]

And the genius es have UT ranked 4 after three straight losses. I dont get it.

 

[ukcatz12]

And the genius es have UT ranked 4 after three straight losses. I dont get it.

Advanced analytics like Kenpom and EvanMiya don't take wins and losses into account. It's usually just a pure efficiency ranking based on how many points you score and allow per 100 posessions, adjusted in their own way for opponent strength.

 

[docholiday51]

Umm. Our head coach is a stat nerd.

Our coach is enough of a nerd to keep Oweh and/or Butler on the floor most of the time so there is that.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

The +/- anal-ytic is the dumbest of all the anal-yics out there.

 

[Emarc]

Advanced analytics like Kenpom and EvanMiya don't take wins and losses into account. It's usually just a pure efficiency ranking based on how many points you score and allow per 100 posessions, adjusted in their own way for opponent strength.

Besides loosing their SOS is 224.

 

[aikenite4uk]

In addition to "who you're on the court with" I think you must take into account that Oweh and Robinson typically are the guys that get stuck having to make something happen very late in the shot clock because they can create their own shot. Doesn't help their efficiency.

 

[Ballin4nine]

I'm not an analytical number cruncher, but my eye test says that Oweh has to be on the court for somewhere around 30 minutes a game for us to win.

 

[runt#69]

Eye test tells me that stat is bullshit

beat me to the punch ! My thought precisely... great minds think alike !

Oweh brings so many more intangibles to this group, and that's the beauty of what Coach Pope has brought together here this year. He saw SOMETHING when piecing this team together that somehow makes them better than the sum of the parts.

Stats are one thing, but the eye test and gut feeling can mean so much more.

 

[ukcatz12]

Besides loosing their SOS is 224.

Their SOS is 33, their non-conference SOS is 224 (Kenpom says 223). But that doesn't matter because the efficiency rankings are adjusted for that already. They're ranked 6 on Kenpom after their numbers have been adjusted for who they've played.

 

[ukcatz12]

I dont know what goes into that EvanMiya stat, but here are Oweh's +/- for SEC games and where they rank among guys who got minutes in those games

UT: +10, 3rd out of 10
Vandy: -7, 7th out of 10
Bama: +3, 2nd out of 9
A&M: +4, tied with Perry for 6th/7th out of 9
Miss St: +11, 1st out of 10
UGA: -8, 10th out of 10
Florida: +7, 3rd out of 9

So about half the time he's in the team's top third, and half the time he's toward the bottom.

 

[Emarc]

Their SOS is 33, their non-conference SOS is 224 (Kenpom says 223). But that doesn't matter because the efficiency rankings are adjusted for that already. They're ranked 6 on Kenpom after their numbers have been adjusted for who they've played.

Ok. You know more than I. Question. If flagg goes down for season, are past team stats still relevant as they have been used. They are a new team. Dont want flagg hurt.

 

[ukcatz12]

Ok. You know more than I. Question. If flagg goes down for season, are past team stats still relevant as they have been used. They are a new team. Dont want flagg hurt.

If Flagg were to get hurt it wouldn't impact their Kenpom (or any other of these types of rankings) until their offensive and efficiency started to decrease because he was out. So if he were hurt today, Duke would still be #3 on Kenpom. Once they started playing games and their performance suffered, even if they were winning, their ranking would probably drop.

I believe the stats of any team that played Duke would be adjusted based on Duke's total body of work up to that point, not just whether they played Duke before or after Flagg's injury.

Kenpom doesn't look at wins and losses, it basically just treats the season like one long game. If you go to Kenpom, you'll see Houston is #1 with an Adjusted Efficiency Ranking of +36.35. That means per every 100 possessions against an "average D1 team" they would score 36.35 more points than they would allow.

That's basically all Kenpom is telling you. It's not trying to rank the best teams in the country like the AP poll might be, or say their #1 team is who they think will win the tournament. It's just a ranking of how much a team scores or allows per 100 possessions. It does however correlate quite well with how good a team is and how well they will do in the tournament.

 

[Emarc]

If Flagg were to get hurt it wouldn't impact their Kenpom (or any other of these types of rankings) until their offensive and efficiency started to decrease because he was out. So if he were hurt today, Duke would still be #3 on Kenpom. Once they started playing games and their performance suffered, even if they were winning, their ranking would probably drop.

I believe the stats of any team that played Duke would be adjusted based on Duke's total body of work up to that point, not just whether they played Duke before or after Flagg's injury.

Kenpom doesn't look at wins and losses, it basically just treats the season like one long game. If you go to Kenpom, you'll see Houston is #1 with an Adjusted Efficiency Ranking of +36.35. That means per every 100 possessions against an "average D1 team" they would score 36.35 more points than they would allow.

That's basically all Kenpom is telling you. It's not trying to rank the best teams in the country like the AP poll might be, or say their #1 team is who they think will win the tournament. It's just a ranking of how much a team scores or allows per 100 possessions. It does however correlate quite well with how good a team is and how well they will do in the tournament.

Thank you.

 

[JonathanW]

Ahh… stat nerds. The kids who were never picked for a team at recess, so must come up with some way to feel included in sports.

Kind of like how Zuckerberg had no real-life friends, so he created Facebook where everybody can just project and be fake AF.

I was and am a "stat nerd" as you say. But I was often one of the first picked for sports teams.
Sounds like someone on here is Math-Challenged.

 

[Emarc]

math nerds make 💰

 

[Someguywhodoesntlikeyou]

math nerds make 💰

As someone who has a math nerd that works for them I agree.

 

[YardCat]

Well I agree with the numbers!!! With that being said I also think that he should return to UK next season to improve those numbers. I think we can all agree that would be best for him and maybe UK. 😜

 

[CincinnatiWildcat]

Ive also seen people mention the stat about how we lose when Oweh is our leading scorer. IMO most of these stats come from the fact that Oweh is unique on our roster. When teams over pressure us, we don't have anyone that will go by them and just get to the rim other than Oweh. That is why these stats look like this imo, has more to do with matchups and how we respond than oweh specifically. Without him we would just look worse against physical defenses.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

If Flagg were to get hurt it wouldn't impact their Kenpom (or any other of these types of rankings) until their offensive and efficiency started to decrease because he was out. So if he were hurt today, Duke would still be #3 on Kenpom. Once they started playing games and their performance suffered, even if they were winning, their ranking would probably drop.

I believe the stats of any team that played Duke would be adjusted based on Duke's total body of work up to that point, not just whether they played Duke before or after Flagg's injury.

Kenpom doesn't look at wins and losses, it basically just treats the season like one long game. If you go to Kenpom, you'll see Houston is #1 with an Adjusted Efficiency Ranking of +36.35. That means per every 100 possessions against an "average D1 team" they would score 36.35 more points than they would allow.

That's basically all Kenpom is telling you. It's not trying to rank the best teams in the country like the AP poll might be, or say their #1 team is who they think will win the tournament. It's just a ranking of how much a team scores or allows per 100 possessions. It does however correlate quite well with how good a team is and how well they will do in the tournament.

KenPom also removes possessions to make the numbers look different.

 

[STL_Cat]

math nerds make 💰

Unless they're college math professors

 

[Wonky]

Umm. Our head coach is a stat nerd.

Haha came here to say the same thing.

Our coaching staff is all over the analytics, both positive and negative.

You know who didn't care about analytics at all and considered them "stat nerds"? John Calipari.

I was and am a "stat nerd" as you say. But I was often one of the first picked for sports teams.
Sounds like someone on here is Math-Challenged.

Wow, chill guys lol. Man y’all are touchy.

Of course I know our coach loves analytics. And of course I know that Cal was worthless in that department, much to the detriment of our program. I think any modern coach MUST approach everything from an analytical perspective if they want to be successful.

But let’s be real: Mathematicians, statisticians, physicists… they all have a tendency to try to quantify EVERYTHING. And many of them think that if something can’t be quantified, then it isn’t reality. They are very rigid in their thinking, and that can be downright annoying.

Otega Oweh has intangibles. He brings things to this team that are outside the realm of statistics. In my opinion he is the best ALL-AROUND player on our team, and the one we can least afford to lose. But that’s just my opinion.

 

[JonathanW]

Wow, chill guys lol. Man y’all are touchy.

Of course I know our coach loves analytics. And of course I know that Cal was worthless in that department, much to the detriment of our program. I think any modern coach MUST approach everything from an analytical perspective if they want to be successful.

But let’s be real: Mathematicians, statisticians, physicists… they all have a tendency to try to quantify EVERYTHING. And many of them think that if something can’t be quantified, then it isn’t reality. They are very rigid in their thinking, and that can be downright annoying.

Otega Oweh has intangibles. He brings things to this team that are outside the realm of statistics. In my opinion he is the best ALL-AROUND player on our team, and the one we can least afford to lose. But that’s just my opinion.

I was saying this last summer, when everyone else was hanging their hat on Robinson or Brea, that Oweh would be our most important player this year. And I was right, well either him or Butler.

 

[Cleatortoises]

I was saying this last summer, when everyone else was hanging their hat on Robinson or Brea, that Oweh would be our most important player this year. And I was right, well either him or Butler.

The most consistently productive (when healthy) are
Oweh
Butler
Carr
When the local show insisted that we wouldn't be good unless Robinson was our best player, I did not concur.
Also, Mountain Mamba is a NO GO for me.