Probably the first time I've ever disagreed with one of your posts. Remember, everyone thought the 2011 team was screwed without Kanter. We made the final four because Jorts stepped up as a veteran. If Skal does not play I am truly 100% confident that Lee and Poythress are going to make huge leaps in their game and lead us either way. Maybe not as drastic as Jorts but still a significant jump.
Poythress is a great player and Lee would start for most teams in the country too. This team without Skal is still more talented and has better returning players than UK's 2010-2011 final four team. Also this team without Skal is better than past final four teams such as Butler, UConn, and last year's Michigan state just to name a few.
We are in far better shape than in 2011. Humphries is starting off right now a lot better than Harrelson this time that year... and he's probably still only the backup if Skal can't play... Because Lee would be the starter. Ulis, Briscoe, Murray, Poy and Lee... thats five 5 star players..... which is 2 more than we had playing for us in 2011 when we had Knight, Lamb , Liggins, Jones and Harrelson.
You guys all make very valid points.
Here is my take and you can tell me where I am wrong.
Fr Knight & Fr Lamb - I believe a Soph Ulis and Murray and Briscoe can be just as productive if not more.
Jr Miller & Jr Liggins - I do not think we have any idea how Mathews & Mulder (add some Briscoe here at the 3 as well) will do.
Can these first year players match the 19.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, 75% FT, a blistering 42% 3PT%, and not just good, but excellent defense? Not to mention their experience factor.
Fr Jones - In my opinion, Poy will never be the basketball player Terrence is/was. Alex showed great defensive skills and an impressive rebound now and then.
I do not see Alex ever averaging 16 pts and 9 rebounds. I am aware he was a 5 star and an exceptional athlete, but I would argue that we do not have any honest basis to claim he is a great player, not to mention coming off a major injury.
Sr. Jorts & Jr Vargas - 9pts and 11 rebounds, I believe Lee and Humphries can maintain these stat lines.
However, we all know that Jorts brought great basketball intangibles, pick and rolls, toughness, heady plays.
None of these are Lee's strong points. Athleticism over these type of intangibles along with much more body mass?
Jorts only hit 60% on his free throws, yet Lee only makes half that many.
Humphries according to Cal is still pretty much behind. He is an underaged freshman. I like how he played vs the US team, however I do not see him being nearly as physical or aggressive as Jorts. His ability to hit the 10-15 footer and free throws are definitely positives.
So basically here is what I am saying:
Guards - 2015 is as good, although you may need to count all 3 to reach Knight and Lamb's 30 points per game. Ulis' experience is a major plus.
SF - If I am lumping Briscoe with the guards than 2011 is much, much more proven and is safe to say better than Mathews and Mulder at this point.
PF - No doubts that Jones > Poy, can Alex be more than a great wing defender and occasional highlight, not to mention do this after knee surgery?
Without Skal, Poy will be keyed upon by the defense because they do not have to guard Lee out past the basket. (Unless he has picked up a decent jump shot). Poy has not performed well on offense when not being the focus.
C - Until Lee shows that he understands what to do and where to be on defense and can make a free throw, I take a Sr Jorts and his bball skils with less athleticism all day.
Without Skal and a PF to provide points ala T Jones, I do not trust Lee to give us what Jorts did (nor would i have trusted Jorts to be enough without Jones), and I hope Humphries progresses by year end to take up the slack.
Humphries could surprise or be a year away.
The Butler, UConn' and Michigan State teams were all laden with veteran's, and although we can point to an obvious advantage in athleticism, it is hard to predict what a young group like this would do. We do not have a John Wall-Demarcus Cousins or Knight-Lamb-Jones super freshman combo/trio (assuming Skal is out).
Again all of this without Skal -he changes everything.
I just do not see a long run in the tourney without a goto scorer/rebounder/rim protector at the 4 or 5.
With Skal, Poy can flourish as the guy who is not focused on (hopefully).
I may be wrong on all of this, I hope and believe Skal will play, if not, I hope I am incredibly wrong about this assessment.