Scouting Duke

[kybassfan]

Hahaha NO WAAAY!!! Im literally telling you what to do and you do it every time!

Let me prove it again. Respond to me now…...

So you don't deny you are a Puke fan. But we all knew that.

Speaking of responses, I don't think you responded to this:

(Everyone besides CutNets - If you don't want to read forever, just read point 2. Then copy it and paste it back at him every time he tries to run with this nonsense)

Good. glad we're off the fence now.

1. "Greatest recruiting class of all time" by high school accomplishment, okay, but high school accomplishment says nothing about translation to college. An extreme example would be if an NBA team had drafted, say, Kwame Brown and Stromile Swift in 2001, it would've been called one of the greatest draft classes of all time at that moment. But if a coach failed to make the playoffs with Brown and Swift leading the way, you certainly can't put all the blame on the coach.

Similarly, recruiting rankings out of high school are fun, but you don't actually know what you have until you've seen their game translate to college a bit. '14 UK turned out to be a pretty darn good class, but it's obvious that UK's '09 and '12 and '15 classes were better than '14. So was Duke's '15, Ohio State '06, etc. Hell, the vaunted Fab 5 is actually pretty comparable with our '14 class - they had very similar first seasons, and our '14 class had a way, way better second season.

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2. It doesn't for K, either. He had a team pretty much just as dominant as our '15 team in '99, and he didn't win it all.
In fact, K has been a one seed 9 times where he didn't win it, including 5 sweet 16 losses and an elite 8 loss.

As a one seed.

So in other words, as a one seed, K is 1.5 times more likely to not even make the final four than he is to win the title.

If this were true of Cal, you'd be raising a ruckus. But because you know that K is as good as it gets, you're forced into this weird little pocket of self-contradiction and cognitive dissonance that I've been pointing out.

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3. K has been drowning in burger boys for decades now. And when you say Cal has had even a bit more based on recruiting classes year in and year out, well first of all - you're acknowledging that it's close, and so if you're close to Cal in recruiting level and also the GOAT X and Os status like K, why aren't you winning it every single year? In your world, this logic makes sense. CutNets believes that any coach with incredibly elite talent who is even decent at Xs and Os should win basically every year - there really should be like 4 1/2 championship trophies awarded per season.

Second of all, you're making that fundamental UL fan logical error when talking about Cal's recruiting vs everyone else's - you're only accounting for the input of the system. In fact, Zipp has been parading around with an expanded version of that argument - literally a graphical chart with number of 5 stars brought in at the top schools over the past 6 years. He uses it to argue that Cal has literally twice as much talent as Self or Roy or Miller and that's why his results are so much better.
So Self or Roy or K may have burger boys coming off the bench in a given year, but because they're sophomores or juniors instead of new recruits, they don't add to that year's 5 star count or recruiting rankings.
IOW, your method (which again, you share with Zipp) says that a coach with 10 5* freshmen has vastly more talent than the guy with 3 5* freshmen, 2 5* sophs, 3 5* juniors, and 2 5* seniors. Again, this example isn't about specific coaches - I'm just showing you the reductio ad absurdum of this logic.

4. Well, just as an aside, Uconn also lost in the first round in the 8/9 game with one of the most ridiculously stacked rosters in the history of college basketball - the same year Cal won the championship. They had:
Ryan Boatright
Deandre Daniels
Andre Drummond
Jeremy Lamb
Shabazz Napier
Alex Oriakhi
and
Roscoe Smith.

But yes, they have had unparalleled championship game success in the past which even K can't match, pound for pound. UCONN has had good talent, but K has had vastly more over the past 25 years, yet in that span, he's only up 5-4 on championships.

And the funny thing is, it's not even down to just one UCONN coach - yes, the legend Calhoun (who retired in shame amidst a scandal), was responsible for 3, but they also got a Tubby-style run with a brand new coach and a team that is clearly not the best in the country. For that matter, neither was Calhoun's '11 team - by a long shot. But you hang on to those individual data points tightly when they feed your confirmation bias. Because that's what people who don't understand stats do.

The main thing you just don't seem to understand is the probabilistic profile of coming out on top in a single elimination tourney with 64/68 teams. And I don't know if there's any way to cure you of that.

But back to the main point - K has absolutely had comparable talent to Cal - and as I've demonstrated, he's blown it big time way more than he's gone all the way with his one seeds. In a normal person, this would cause a shift in expectations for what a great coach does year in and year out. But you are no normal person.

 

[CUT-NETS]

So you don't deny you are a Puke fan. But we all knew that.

Speaking of responses, I don't think you responded to this:

Owning you and owning you and owning you and owning you. You keep doing exactly what I tell you to do. You are mine. Keep slurping me. Now…..respond to me again

 

[kybassfan]

Owning you and owning you and owning you and owning you. You keep doing exactly what I tell you to do. You are mine. Keep slurping me. Now…..respond to me again

Hey Duke Boy. Don't think you responded to this either:

Cal has coached in 6 Final Fours, going 3-3 in the semifinal (2-2 at UK) and 1-2 in the championship (1-1 at UK). Are we going to act like those are somehow bad numbers? Those are identical numbers to Roy Williams' first 6 trips to the Final Four (and all of his were at a blue blood program, Cal's first two were at mid majors). K did a slightly better 4-2, 2-2 in his first six trips. Rick went 2-4, 1-1 in his first 6 trips. Izzo went 2-4, 1-1. Dean Smith went 3-3, 0-3. Denny Crum 2-4, 2-0.

K did better. Crum won one more title. You have to go to names like Wooden, Rupp, and Knight to fund others who outperformed Cal. The fact that we're measuring him against the greatest names in the history of coaching to find anyone who outperformed him, and that his record stands up to the other top coaches of the past 3 decades, should close the book on the discussion.

 

[CUT-NETS]

Hey Duke Boy. Don't think you responded to this either:

Amazing!!!

Do what i say. Respond to me now

 

[kybassfan]

Amazing!!!

Do what i say. Respond to me now

Last one Dukie. Respond. Now that you are exposed and we've proven that Cal >> Krychitski, I'm done with you. Been fun manipulating you into exposing yourself.

Great post jkwo. You've made a great argument here- logical and sound reasoning.

There might be another argument that could be used to answer this accusation against Calipari. It's a simple answer, really, and it's all about the NCAA Tournament, and we all know it's true. When you're talking about a single elimination tournament, the best team doesn't always win. In 2011-12, the best team DID win. Last year, the best team lost in the Final Four. In order to win a title, you not only have to have a great team and a great coach, you also need to catch a break or two along the way. I think Final Fours are a better measure of which teams had a great season. Does anyone think Wisconsin didn't have a great team and season last year? What about Florida in 2014? Those teams had great seasons and their coaches deserve credit.

So, the bottom line is Calipari has been to 5 Elite 8s, 4 Final Fours, 2 title games, and won 1 title in 6 seasons at UK. That is ridiculous! Anyone who can look at that and say, "I no longer get overly excited or worked up when I see Cal reeling in another top recruit because it simply doesn't equate to championships for Cal" is not thinking clearly. Or they might not really be a UK fan. Or they might be a person who is 12 (or very young). Or they may have just become a UK fan in 2009-10 and have become completely and hopelessly spoiled rotten.

Regardless, to look at what Calipari has done in his time at UK and conclude that it's anything less than an overwhelming success is just flat out irrational. Period.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Well, what say ye CUT NETS? Was Calipari's team prepared? Did Coach K overwhelm Cal? Duke threw that 2-3 zone at us and we sliced and diced it. I guess you're gonna say Ulis deserves all the credit and Cal was in over his head? Seriously though, I'd love to hear your take on this inexplicable dominating game by our Cats over Duke.

 

[GoCatsForever2k15]

Until Cal proves me wrong I guess I can only go by records. K has 2 titles in the time frame that Cal has been at UK. Cal's had all the talent in the world, and while final fours are nothing to scoff at, I believe when his time is done here we will all be saying "what could have been".

Most fans on here acknowledge Cal "could" have won more titles. I simply say he "should" have won more titles. His own stubbornness and tightness in the end has cost him and I'm of the belief that those "hiccups" are who he really is.

After losing in 2014 with the greatest recruiting class of all time (by several accounts), and in 2015 with arguably the greatest assemblage of talent (young and old, depth, defense, etc) I no longer get overly excited or worked up when I see Cal reeling in another top recruit because it simply doesn't equate to championships for Cal. K has had close to the same talent, but by the numbers (recruiting class rankings the past 6 years) he hasn't had the same talent yet won two titles. Uconn hasn't had nearly the talent top to bottom on their roster, but 2 titles.

It's not that Cal hasn't done enough or isn't having success, only a fool would think that. It's that given the talent he's had, and the chances he's had, he should have done more. We're sitting on a golden opportunity to really dominate every category and some end game blunders have cost us.

So while you and others continue to be satisfied by piling up first round draft picks and celebrating early season beat downs of Kansas and UCLA, I will continue to value what really counts....national titles. Waiting on Cal to value them like he does sending guys to the league. He said last year's goal was not to win the title, but to get 8 guys drafted. Well he's in luck because we didn't win the title. Wonder what this year's "team goal" is?

Lordy.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Crickets...

This is what I figured would happen if UK won the game tonight. CUT-NETS was all in on Coach K over Cal and Duke over UK. It was Duke by 7 and an unprepared and undisciplined UK being out coached and outplayed. Oh well.

 

[FlCATFan]

I don't think Coach K has that One and Done thing completely figured out yet.

 

[IL Wildcat]

You know? It would be so sad, in my opinion, to be unable to celebrate with your fellow fans regarding a great win like this. (Assuming he really is a UK fan) But to have to hide your face and be disappointed with a win like this because you did so much negative talking about your own team and coach before the game. Seriously, it would be very sad.

 

[CUT-NETS]

Well, what say ye CUT NETS? Was Calipari's team prepared? Did Coach K overwhelm Cal? Duke threw that 2-3 zone at us and we sliced and diced it. I guess you're gonna say Ulis deserves all the credit and Cal was in over his head? Seriously though, I'd love to hear your take on this inexplicable dominating game by our Cats over Duke.

I don't really have much of a take. I'm pleasantly surprised. I thought the game would come down to free throws which would give Duke the advantage. Kentucky's guards were just too good and free throws really didn't become part of the equation. I knew Ulis would keep us in the game, but he did more than keep us in it, he kept Duke at a comfortable distance. Ulis has to stay healthy.

I would caution against getting too cocky though, as Coach K's teams are typically better by the end of the year than they were at the beginning of the year. I understand UK has room for improvement too, but many on here are acting as if we have won the national title when in reality we are simply 3-0. Beat Duke in March/April when it counts.

 

[Jazzycat]

I agree that Ulis is the leader of this team and when he is on and in control, UK will win. Calipari coached a heck of a game, however, in putting Humphries in to stop the rebounding by duke's bigs. There is a reason that Calipari has the highest winning percentage of any coach to coach Kentucky. He is a superior recruiter, player developer and assembles what he needs in assistants to win games. I have criticized Calipari in the past about in game decisions. Last night, he proved that he could out coach anyone. Very impressed with this young team, their poise and decision making and coaching.

 

[IL Wildcat]

I don't really have much of a take. I'm pleasantly surprised. I thought the game would come down to free throws which would give Duke the advantage. Kentucky's guards were just too good and free throws really didn't become part of the equation. I knew Ulis would keep us in the game, but he did more than keep us in it, he kept Duke at a comfortable distance. Ulis has to stay healthy.

I would caution against getting too cocky though, as Coach K's teams are typically better by the end of the year than they were at the beginning of the year. I understand UK has room for improvement too, but many on here are acting as if we have won the national title when in reality we are simply 3-0. Beat Duke in March/April when it counts.

You just won't give in, will you? Are you just a contrarian? That's the way you come across to me. I will give you credit for replying though, after all that was said in this thread and others.

It seems to me that you are a Duke fan, so why not just say it? The "I would caution against getting too cocky though, as Coach K's teams are typically better by the end of the year..." That's not the song you were singing yesterday. Yesterday, it was going to be a loss for Kentucky because Coach K will have his team better prepared this early. Yesterday, it was that Coach K was going to throw a defense at UK that the Cats hadn't prepared for.

And as for those free throws coming into play, Kentucky actually shot a better percentage from the line than Duke. So, your entire argument and case against Calipari has fallen apart. But now you want to say "I would caution against getting too cocky." Those are the words a person whose team just got beat and they don't want to admit it. That sounds like Louisville fans after we beat them early in the year. Immediately afterward, they're making excuses for the loss. By the middle of January they're saying they'd win a rematch easily.

As I said above, it would be sad, assuming that you really are a UK fan as you say, to not be able to enjoy a win like this one last night. It would be sad to have to make excuses for the other team. It would be sad to not be able to give my coach any credit, which I note you still haven't done. You may hate Calipari, but he outcoached Coach K last night. His team was better prepared. His team executed a great gameplan. His team adjusted to Coach K's adjustments. His team won by 11 a game that really wasn't even that close.

 

[CUT-NETS]

You just won't give in, will you? Are you just a contrarian? That's the way you come across to me. I will give you credit for replying though, after all that was said in this thread and others.

It seems to me that you are a Duke fan, so why not just say it? The "I would caution against getting too cocky though, as Coach K's teams are typically better by the end of the year..." That's not the song you were singing yesterday. Yesterday, it was going to be a loss for Kentucky because Coach K will have his team better prepared this early. Yesterday, it was that Coach K was going to throw a defense at UK that the Cats hadn't prepared for.

And as for those free throws coming into play, Kentucky actually shot a better percentage from the line than Duke. So, your entire argument and case against Calipari has fallen apart. But now you want to say "I would caution against getting too cocky." Those are the words a person whose team just got beat and they don't want to admit it. That sounds like Louisville fans after we beat them early in the year. Immediately afterward, they're making excuses for the loss. By the middle of January they're saying they'd win a rematch easily.

As I said above, it would be sad, assuming that you really are a UK fan as you say, to not be able to enjoy a win like this one last night. It would be sad to have to make excuses for the other team. It would be sad to not be able to give my coach any credit, which I note you still haven't done. You may hate Calipari, but he outcoached Coach K last night. His team was better prepared. His team executed a great gameplan. His team adjusted to Coach K's adjustments. His team won by 11 a game that really wasn't even that close.

Im thrilled with the win. I think it had greater implications going forward than many might think. For all intents and purposes, Duke had pulled even with us in recruiting and coming off a national title they really had all of the momentum, especially after reeling in Giles. Kentucky getting Fox and Bam and then topping that off with a big win on a national stage was huge. More than that, it was needed. We were 1-7 against Duke since 78'. If Coach K blows us out last night in front of a national audience they could have really pulled ahead. The win last night was huge and that doesn't escape me.

I remember being nervous when Skal went 1/2 on our first free throws thinking "here we go". But you are right, Duke missed a lot of free throws, which is uncharacteristic for them. Duke did go zone and we seemed to have no problem with it, although we were only 3-11 from three on the night, which has got to improve and I don't think anyone would deny that.

Cal's greatest achievement last night was that he didn't pull up on the Raines at the end. He let is guards play and keep attacking. Again, its the 3rd game of the season so there was not the pressure that the tournament brings.

I don't think acknowledging that a Coach K coached team will get better at the end of the year is going too overboard. Again, gotta beat Duke at the end of the year. Last year Wisconsin played Duke close early in the season and Duke went on to beat them again in the final. Will we do the same? Will Cal tighten up when we get to the end?

 

[Nuke99m]

More likely Duke loses to Mercer.

 

[GoCatsForever2k15]

I would caution against getting too cocky though, as Coach K's teams are typically better by the end of the year than they were at the beginning of the year.

Except when he loses to the Mercers, Lehighs, and other inferior teams of the world(?)

Anyways, most every team is significantly better in April than it was in mid November.