Scouting Duke
- Thread starter IL Wildcat
- Start date
Man, I just can't get a feel for which way this game is going down. Off the top of me head, two concerns I have is Plumlee roughing up Skal and pushing him out of the paint. And Duke's tall guards shooting over Ulis all night.
That being said, I think we MIGHT have the advantage as far as motivation and just wanting it more goes. I can't help but feel our returning veteran players will have a little chip on their shoulders from last year. Ulis, Poy, Lee, and Willis have to feel at some level, that not only this game is the game they were denied last year, but that Duke took what they believe was rightfully our's. And they have had to stew on this during the whole off season, just like us fans. Yep, they might be ready to make a statement! Of Course I may be waaaaay off here, but I'm going with it, because it makes me feel better about our chances!
That being said, I think we MIGHT have the advantage as far as motivation and just wanting it more goes. I can't help but feel our returning veteran players will have a little chip on their shoulders from last year. Ulis, Poy, Lee, and Willis have to feel at some level, that not only this game is the game they were denied last year, but that Duke took what they believe was rightfully our's. And they have had to stew on this during the whole off season, just like us fans. Yep, they might be ready to make a statement! Of Course I may be waaaaay off here, but I'm going with it, because it makes me feel better about our chances!
Why are you baiting cut nets? Are you trying to get banned? Let's just talk about the game, eh? Whatdya say?
Not baiting. Guy came after my post in another thread, just responding. Of course he claimed to have put me on ignore long ago, but I guess that wasn't true.
On to the game…..
I think Duke will be a little more refined than we will be as is usually the signature of Coach K. I think Ulis will keep us in the game but in the end I think Duke will throw some defenses at us that we haven't worked on. Cal said today in his presser that Duke goes 80% man to man, and I suspect we will see that. However, Coach K has proven over the years that he is willing to adjust and adapt to win a game. I could see him throwing some zone at us. Our guards will have to be good. As Cal said in his presser, both teams will attack the basket and both will draw fouls. Could be a long game. I think in the end it will come down to who hits more free throws after drawing all of those fouls. Duke by 7.
I guess that's fair to an extent. Coach K is an excellent coach, without question. But in regard to his team being more refined at this point, I don't see that. He's got 4 new starters here. His guards are sophomores that were just role players last season. They are good guards but UK's guards are better. From what I've seen, it's UK's team that appears more refined right now, especially with that backcourt. It sounds like you're just interested in putting Calipari down. Do you have a problem with him?
Hey, do you remember when our Cats switched to a 2-3 zone the other night to give the team a spark? Does he get any credit for that? I was surprised to see it, but it was very effective.
Regarding being abe to throw gimmick at UK that they can't overcome, I think it's usually a matter of players. Specifically, if a team throws a zone at you, you must have shooters who can beat it and guards who can dissect it. The Cats have both.
I think there is much reason for optimism in this game. Vegas likes the Cats by 4.5. I think that's a good line. Duke by 7 seems almost pessimistic from a UK fan's point of view.
Maybe a bit pessimistic, ill grant you that. We are 1-7 since 78' which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. I like our guards over their guards. I would agree that a kid like Ulis is much more refined, but he's been turnover prone early on. Maybe thats just jitters. I see him having a great game tomorrow night. I think Ulis keeps us in the game. As I said before, and it was from what Cal mentioned in his pre-game presser, both teams are going to drive the ball and both will draw fouls. Both teams will get to the free throw line. Why I think Duke wins is because quite frankly I think they will hit more free throws. Coach K's teams have always been very solid at the line over the years while it hasn't necessarily been a point of emphasis for Calipari coached teams. I don't think thats a knock, just calling it how it is. I think the talent is pretty even between the two teams, I just happen to think Duke will make more free throws. Duke by 5-7.
You realize that you're mocking a line that people throw out because it perfectly mirrors your own ridiculous anecdotal knocks on Cal, right?
There's no pun. A pun is a play on words.
What you're doing is called fence-riding.
You really do believe the silly stuff you say about Cal, but you're trying to throw jokes out there to distract from the hypocrisy of the double standards you hold Cal to.
When people flip around your logic and apply it to a legendary coach, they (typically) don't actually believe that said coach sucks.
You fully acknowledge how weak a criticism that is of K, and as you know, the same faulty case can be made of any active HOFer (and basically all the inactive ones).
But you still think it's a fair critique from Cal.
THAT is the reality that you can't "pun" your way out of.
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anon_9qtxg60vqzy0y
Guest
Until Cal proves me wrong I guess I can only go by records. K has 2 titles in the time frame that Cal has been at UK. Cal's had all the talent in the world, and while final fours are nothing to scoff at, I believe when his time is done here we will all be saying "what could have been".
Most fans on here acknowledge Cal "could" have won more titles. I simply say he "should" have won more titles. His own stubbornness and tightness in the end has cost him and I'm of the belief that those "hiccups" are who he really is.
After losing in 2014 with the greatest recruiting class of all time (by several accounts), and in 2015 with arguably the greatest assemblage of talent (young and old, depth, defense, etc) I no longer get overly excited or worked up when I see Cal reeling in another top recruit because it simply doesn't equate to championships for Cal. K has had close to the same talent, but by the numbers (recruiting class rankings the past 6 years) he hasn't had the same talent yet won two titles. Uconn hasn't had nearly the talent top to bottom on their roster, but 2 titles.
It's not that Cal hasn't done enough or isn't having success, only a fool would think that. It's that given the talent he's had, and the chances he's had, he should have done more. We're sitting on a golden opportunity to really dominate every category and some end game blunders have cost us.
So while you and others continue to be satisfied by piling up first round draft picks and celebrating early season beat downs of Kansas and UCLA, I will continue to value what really counts....national titles. Waiting on Cal to value them like he does sending guys to the league. He said last year's goal was not to win the title, but to get 8 guys drafted. Well he's in luck because we didn't win the title. Wonder what this year's "team goal" is?
When do you play the game film card. Rat face and the ratlings have been watching that film. He thinks Cal don't stand a chance.
Cut nets is outed. No Kentucky fan. He's just another heckler.
Agreed Doc. If they call fouls for freedom of movement like they say they are, this game could be slow and higher scoring than expected by some. With the way Duke and UK usually play defense, you'd expect a game in the 60s or 70s, but I'm expecting low 80s tonight. I guess we'll see.
A golden opportunity created by John Calipari. You are choosing to rip Calipari for not winning more titles while ignoring the fact that the only reason we were in position to win a title 5 out of his 6 years is because of him.
What is he doing is not normal. You appear to be so spoiled you seem to forget that.
You also seem to ignore the fact that while the teams have been ridiculously talented, they've also been ridiculously young. The Brandon Knight team had no business being in the Final Four. The Julius Randle team LITERALLY started all freshmen. Last year we went 38-0 for the first time in NCAA HISTORY and lost to one hell of a team in revenge-seeking Wisconsin. Sometimes great teams lose to other great teams. It happens. Your boy Coach K has seen it happen many times in his career. He's also seen plenty of his great teams lose to average teams. That happens too.
My suggestion to you is get some perspective.
I hope Duke does play zone.
This team is going to shoot teams out of zones this year. We're going to be able to move Skal to the foul line and he'll feast. You won't be able to zone this team IMO.
K has been 95% man throughout his career. Played some zone last year simply because they couldn't keep anybody in front of them. I don't expect a zone unless they're just having trouble containing us off the dribble.
This team is going to shoot teams out of zones this year. We're going to be able to move Skal to the foul line and he'll feast. You won't be able to zone this team IMO.
K has been 95% man throughout his career. Played some zone last year simply because they couldn't keep anybody in front of them. I don't expect a zone unless they're just having trouble containing us off the dribble.
He knew I wouldn't read his comment until today.
The way the Bengals played last night they could have used all the help they could get...that was awful.
(Everyone besides CutNets - If you don't want to read forever, just read point 2. Then copy it and paste it back at him every time he tries to run with this nonsense)
1. "Greatest recruiting class of all time" by high school accomplishment, okay, but high school accomplishment says nothing about translation to college. An extreme example would be if an NBA team had drafted, say, Kwame Brown and Stromile Swift in 2001, it would've been called one of the greatest draft classes of all time at that moment. But if a coach failed to make the playoffs with Brown and Swift leading the way, you certainly can't put all the blame on the coach.
Similarly, recruiting rankings out of high school are fun, but you don't actually know what you have until you've seen their game translate to college a bit. '14 UK turned out to be a pretty darn good class, but it's obvious that UK's '09 and '12 and '15 classes were better than '14. So was Duke's '15, Ohio State '06, etc. Hell, the vaunted Fab 5 is actually pretty comparable with our '14 class - they had very similar first seasons, and our '14 class had a way, way better second season.
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2. It doesn't for K, either. He had a team pretty much just as dominant as our '15 team in '99, and he didn't win it all.
In fact, K has been a one seed 9 times where he didn't win it, including 5 sweet 16 losses and an elite 8 loss.
As a one seed.
So in other words, as a one seed, K is 1.5 times more likely to not even make the final four than he is to win the title.
If this were true of Cal, you'd be raising a ruckus. But because you know that K is as good as it gets, you're forced into this weird little pocket of self-contradiction and cognitive dissonance that I've been pointing out.
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3. K has been drowning in burger boys for decades now. And when you say Cal has had even a bit more based on recruiting classes year in and year out, well first of all - you're acknowledging that it's close, and so if you're close to Cal in recruiting level and also the GOAT X and Os status like K, why aren't you winning it every single year? In your world, this logic makes sense. CutNets believes that any coach with incredibly elite talent who is even decent at Xs and Os should win basically every year - there really should be like 4 1/2 championship trophies awarded per season.
Second of all, you're making that fundamental UL fan logical error when talking about Cal's recruiting vs everyone else's - you're only accounting for the input of the system. In fact, Zipp has been parading around with an expanded version of that argument - literally a graphical chart with number of 5 stars brought in at the top schools over the past 6 years. He uses it to argue that Cal has literally twice as much talent as Self or Roy or Miller and that's why his results are so much better.
So Self or Roy or K may have burger boys coming off the bench in a given year, but because they're sophomores or juniors instead of new recruits, they don't add to that year's 5 star count or recruiting rankings.
IOW, your method (which again, you share with Zipp) says that a coach with 10 5* freshmen has vastly more talent than the guy with 3 5* freshmen, 2 5* sophs, 3 5* juniors, and 2 5* seniors. Again, this example isn't about specific coaches - I'm just showing you the reductio ad absurdum of this logic.
4. Well, just as an aside, Uconn also lost in the first round in the 8/9 game with one of the most ridiculously stacked rosters in the history of college basketball - the same year Cal won the championship. They had:
Ryan Boatright
Deandre Daniels
Andre Drummond
Jeremy Lamb
Shabazz Napier
Alex Oriakhi
and
Roscoe Smith.
But yes, they have had unparalleled championship game success in the past which even K can't match, pound for pound. UCONN has had good talent, but K has had vastly more over the past 25 years, yet in that span, he's only up 5-4 on championships.
And the funny thing is, it's not even down to just one UCONN coach - yes, the legend Calhoun (who retired in shame amidst a scandal), was responsible for 3, but they also got a Tubby-style run with a brand new coach and a team that is clearly not the best in the country. For that matter, neither was Calhoun's '11 team - by a long shot. But you hang on to those individual data points tightly when they feed your confirmation bias. Because that's what people who don't understand stats do.
The main thing you just don't seem to understand is the probabilistic profile of coming out on top in a single elimination tourney with 64/68 teams. And I don't know if there's any way to cure you of that.
But back to the main point - K has absolutely had comparable talent to Cal - and as I've demonstrated, he's blown it big time way more than he's gone all the way with his one seeds. In a normal person, this would cause a shift in expectations for what a great coach does year in and year out. But you are no normal person.
Good. glad we're off the fence now.
1. "Greatest recruiting class of all time" by high school accomplishment, okay, but high school accomplishment says nothing about translation to college. An extreme example would be if an NBA team had drafted, say, Kwame Brown and Stromile Swift in 2001, it would've been called one of the greatest draft classes of all time at that moment. But if a coach failed to make the playoffs with Brown and Swift leading the way, you certainly can't put all the blame on the coach.
Similarly, recruiting rankings out of high school are fun, but you don't actually know what you have until you've seen their game translate to college a bit. '14 UK turned out to be a pretty darn good class, but it's obvious that UK's '09 and '12 and '15 classes were better than '14. So was Duke's '15, Ohio State '06, etc. Hell, the vaunted Fab 5 is actually pretty comparable with our '14 class - they had very similar first seasons, and our '14 class had a way, way better second season.
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2. It doesn't for K, either. He had a team pretty much just as dominant as our '15 team in '99, and he didn't win it all.
In fact, K has been a one seed 9 times where he didn't win it, including 5 sweet 16 losses and an elite 8 loss.
As a one seed.
So in other words, as a one seed, K is 1.5 times more likely to not even make the final four than he is to win the title.
If this were true of Cal, you'd be raising a ruckus. But because you know that K is as good as it gets, you're forced into this weird little pocket of self-contradiction and cognitive dissonance that I've been pointing out.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3. K has been drowning in burger boys for decades now. And when you say Cal has had even a bit more based on recruiting classes year in and year out, well first of all - you're acknowledging that it's close, and so if you're close to Cal in recruiting level and also the GOAT X and Os status like K, why aren't you winning it every single year? In your world, this logic makes sense. CutNets believes that any coach with incredibly elite talent who is even decent at Xs and Os should win basically every year - there really should be like 4 1/2 championship trophies awarded per season.
Second of all, you're making that fundamental UL fan logical error when talking about Cal's recruiting vs everyone else's - you're only accounting for the input of the system. In fact, Zipp has been parading around with an expanded version of that argument - literally a graphical chart with number of 5 stars brought in at the top schools over the past 6 years. He uses it to argue that Cal has literally twice as much talent as Self or Roy or Miller and that's why his results are so much better.
So Self or Roy or K may have burger boys coming off the bench in a given year, but because they're sophomores or juniors instead of new recruits, they don't add to that year's 5 star count or recruiting rankings.
IOW, your method (which again, you share with Zipp) says that a coach with 10 5* freshmen has vastly more talent than the guy with 3 5* freshmen, 2 5* sophs, 3 5* juniors, and 2 5* seniors. Again, this example isn't about specific coaches - I'm just showing you the reductio ad absurdum of this logic.
4. Well, just as an aside, Uconn also lost in the first round in the 8/9 game with one of the most ridiculously stacked rosters in the history of college basketball - the same year Cal won the championship. They had:
Ryan Boatright
Deandre Daniels
Andre Drummond
Jeremy Lamb
Shabazz Napier
Alex Oriakhi
and
Roscoe Smith.
But yes, they have had unparalleled championship game success in the past which even K can't match, pound for pound. UCONN has had good talent, but K has had vastly more over the past 25 years, yet in that span, he's only up 5-4 on championships.
And the funny thing is, it's not even down to just one UCONN coach - yes, the legend Calhoun (who retired in shame amidst a scandal), was responsible for 3, but they also got a Tubby-style run with a brand new coach and a team that is clearly not the best in the country. For that matter, neither was Calhoun's '11 team - by a long shot. But you hang on to those individual data points tightly when they feed your confirmation bias. Because that's what people who don't understand stats do.
The main thing you just don't seem to understand is the probabilistic profile of coming out on top in a single elimination tourney with 64/68 teams. And I don't know if there's any way to cure you of that.
But back to the main point - K has absolutely had comparable talent to Cal - and as I've demonstrated, he's blown it big time way more than he's gone all the way with his one seeds. In a normal person, this would cause a shift in expectations for what a great coach does year in and year out. But you are no normal person.
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Cal has coached in 6 Final Fours, going 3-3 in the semifinal (2-2 at UK) and 1-2 in the championship (1-1 at UK). Are we going to act like those are somehow bad numbers? Those are identical numbers to Roy Williams' first 6 trips to the Final Four (and all of his were at a blue blood program, Cal's first two were at mid majors). K did a slightly better 4-2, 2-2 in his first six trips. Rick went 2-4, 1-1 in his first 6 trips. Izzo went 2-4, 1-1. Dean Smith went 3-3, 0-3. Denny Crum 2-4, 2-0.
K did better. Crum won one more title. You have to go to names like Wooden, Rupp, and Knight to fund others who outperformed Cal. The fact that we're measuring him against the greatest names in the history of coaching to find anyone who outperformed him, and that his record stands up to the other top coaches of the past 3 decades, should close the book on the discussion.
K did better. Crum won one more title. You have to go to names like Wooden, Rupp, and Knight to fund others who outperformed Cal. The fact that we're measuring him against the greatest names in the history of coaching to find anyone who outperformed him, and that his record stands up to the other top coaches of the past 3 decades, should close the book on the discussion.
I can't think of a .gif better than the one FiveStarCat just put up for Jkwo's post. That is top 5 greatest post of all time caliber there, and should pretty well end the debate from the Dukie.
Can't believe I've been missing this thread all day. I'm as excited as anyone to get another recruit for next year, but this is THIS year and we play Duke tonight! Enough recruiting jabber, let's talk basketball!
Can't believe I've been missing this thread all day. I'm as excited as anyone to get another recruit for next year, but this is THIS year and we play Duke tonight! Enough recruiting jabber, let's talk basketball!
Great post jkwo. You've made a great argument here- logical and sound reasoning.
There might be another argument that could be used to answer this accusation against Calipari. It's a simple answer, really, and it's all about the NCAA Tournament, and we all know it's true. When you're talking about a single elimination tournament, the best team doesn't always win. In 2011-12, the best team DID win. Last year, the best team lost in the Final Four. In order to win a title, you not only have to have a great team and a great coach, you also need to catch a break or two along the way. I think Final Fours are a better measure of which teams had a great season. Does anyone think Wisconsin didn't have a great team and season last year? What about Florida in 2014? Those teams had great seasons and their coaches deserve credit.
So, the bottom line is Calipari has been to 5 Elite 8s, 4 Final Fours, 2 title games, and won 1 title in 6 seasons at UK. That is ridiculous! Anyone who can look at that and say, "I no longer get overly excited or worked up when I see Cal reeling in another top recruit because it simply doesn't equate to championships for Cal" is not thinking clearly. Or they might not really be a UK fan. Or they might be a person who is 12 (or very young). Or they may have just become a UK fan in 2009-10 and have become completely and hopelessly spoiled rotten.
Regardless, to look at what Calipari has done in his time at UK and conclude that it's anything less than an overwhelming success is just flat out irrational. Period.
I'm a sucker for opposing viewpoints, no matter how ridiculous. Actually, I prefer those even more because it makes me feel better about my own opinions.
Yeah, I guess that pretty much describes me also. I like to interact (argue) with people who have an opposing view. So, I don't have anyone on ignore. I'd rather attempt to prove them wrong.
And here's hoping UK and Calipari prove CUT NETS wrong tonight!
I think we'll know more about this poster's fandom based on his reaction to the game tonight.
I'm torn between these two.
There is nothing I enjoy more than finding people who passionately disagree with me on any topic and trying to figure out where the disconnect is.
But, is he articulating his views in good faith?
To me, it's hard to tell.
I'm convinced he is not a UK fan. I can overlook a comment or two about Cal or the team after a heartbreaker like Wisconsin. CN is relentless in digging at Cal. No Kentucky fan would do that.
Walks like a duck, posts like a duck, must be a duck. I'm not sure who he supports, but most surely not UK. He is almost Crean-like in his worship of Krychitski. Quite possible he's a Puke fan. Given his persistence and lack of imagination, also fits the UL or IU mold.
Not the way I wanted to spend my 1000th post.
I'd play Ulis and see if his quickness can cause Jones and Allen to turn the ball over. Neither one is a true point. The freshman Thornton is a true point, but he's off to a late start with the team having taken summer courses to graduate HS a year early and no into the flow yet.
With two young teams like this anything can happen. Both have the talent to be factors come spring, but there are going to be growing pains for both teams.
Whoever wins the guard matchups will win the game.
You got roasted in the other thread, yet you keep slurping me and slurping me.
Your attention is exactly what I want. Thank you. And I bet you will respond right back to me in 3…..2…….1……..
Yeah, I can smell a Duke fan a mile away. Surprised you can count backwards though.
If there is any slurping going on, I'd say that involves you and Krychitski. You've been loving on him for awhile now.
![[roll]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/roll.r191677.gif "roll [roll]")
Right on cue…No way you will respond again. No way. Absolutely no way you will reply to me again is there?
No way you will respond again. No way. Absolutely no way you will reply to me again is there?
Sure I will Puke Fan. I like outing Puke fans.
No way your going to deny what you are is there?
Hahaha NO WAAAY!!! Im literally telling you what to do and you do it every time!
Let me prove it again. Respond to me now…...
