Duke Blue Devils
Conference Affiliation: Atlantic Coast Conference
Head Coach: Mike Krzyzewski
This is Coach Krzyzewski's 41st season overall (1020-310 .767) 36th with Duke (947-251 .790)
Game information:
Tuesday, November 17 Kentucky United Center, Chicago, IL 7:30 p.m. EST TV: ESPN
This game is part of the State Farm Champions Classic
Last season's result: National Champs 35-4
Starters lost from last season: 4
Jahlil Okafor 17.3pts, 8.5reb
Quinn Cook 15.3pts, 3.4reb, 2.6ast
Justice Winslow 12.6pts, 6.5reb, 2.1ast
Tyus Jones 11.8pts, 5.6ast, 3.5reb
Schedule
N13 SIENA W, 92-74
N14 BRYANT W, 113-75
Probable Starters (with stats for 2 games)
F #14 Brandon Ingram 6-9 190 Fr 18.0pts, 4.0reb, 1.5ast, 33.3% from 3
F #21 Amile Jefferson 6-9 225 Sr 15.0pts, 11.5reb, no 3pt threat
C #40 Marshall Plumlee 7-0 250 Gr 6.0pts, 8.5reb, 2.5blks, no 3pt threat
G #3 Grayson Allen 6-5 205 So 27.0pts, 4.0reb, 4.0ast, 41.7% from 3
G #13 Matt Jones 6-5 200 Jr 14.5pts, 1.5reb, 2.0ast, 60% from 3
Key bench players
G #12 Derryck Thornton 6-2 175 Fr 4.5pts, 4.0reb, 3.0ast, 16.7% from 3
G #5 Luke Kennard 6-5 180 Fr 10.0pts, 2.5reb, 25% from 3
F #2 Chase Jeter 6-10 240 Fr 5.0pts, 4.5reb, no 3pt threat
Team Stats (through 2 games)
Points per game 102.5
Points allowed 74.5
Scoring margin +28.0
Field goal pct .496
FG% defense .451
3-point FG pct .373
3pt FG pct D .476
3-pt FG made per game 9.5
Free throw pct .738
Rebounds per game 43.5
Opponents rebounds 33.5
Rebounding margin +10.0
Assists per game 13.0
Turnovers per game 8.0
Turnover margin +10.0
Assist/turnover ratio 1.6
Steals per game 11.0
Blocks per game 5.5
Analysis: Duke enters this game ranked #5 in the AP Poll and #4 in the Coaches Poll, and bring a team that has scored over 100 points per game to the United Center in Chicago to face a Kentucky team ranked #2 in the AP Poll and #1 in the Coaches Poll. This is a battle of the 2 premier programs in college basketball today and arguably in all of NCAA men's basketball history. Kentucky leads the overall series 11-9 but Duke has won 7 of the last 8 in the series.
Both the Wildcats and the Blue Devils are breaking in some new starters in this game. Kentucky lost all 5 starters from a year ago, plus 2 others, from a Final Four team. Duke lost 4 of 5 starters from a national title team. Both teams played back to back games Friday and Saturday against mid-majors and now stand at 2-0 on the young season.
For Duke, 4 returnees and one freshman will start. This line-up of Jones, Allen, Ingram, Jefferson, and Plumlee started both of their games to this point. So far, the big star for the Blue Devils has been Grayson Allen. The 6-5 sophomore guard has averaged 27 points per game against Siena and Bryant, shooting 51.6% from the field and 41.7% from 3. He has also lived at the free throw line where he has shot 17-18 for 94.4% so far. Allen has been able to bully his way to the goal in their first 2 games and finished with lay-ups or fouls on the opponent. Allen also leads the team in assists per game with 4 per game. His backcourt mate is Matt Jones, another 6-5 guard who is playing some point and some shooting guard. Jones has been shooting it very well from 3pt range, shooting 6-10 for 60%. One concern for Duke thus far, which hasn't mattered against the 2 cupcakes they've played, is that they don't seem to have a true point guard starting. Allen and Jones are both shooting guards or combo guards from what I've seen of them. In watching them play, Allen, Jones, and Ingram have all initiated the offense at different times.
The guy playing small forward is Brandon Ingram, a player UK fans are likely familiar with from the recruiting circuit this last year. He's a 6-9 small forward who is very perimeter oriented in his game. He's only 190lbs (soaking wet, I'd say), so it's no wonder he prefers to stay out of the paint. In the time I watched, he seems to have the green light to handle the ball, start the offense, and shoot from anywhere on the floor. He has shot 33.3% from 3 (5-15) thus far and has scored 18.0 points per game. But here again, the level of competition needs to be considered. His length is impressive, without question, but his handle seems a bit suspect to me.
The other 2 frontcourt players are guys UK fans are very familiar with, Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee (v. 4.0). Jefferson is finally a senior and he is a critically important player for Duke. He's 6-9 225 and has a little bit of a back to the basket game. Given the fact that Plumlee has almost no back to the basket game, it's easy to see why Jefferson is so important. He's averaging 15 points and 11.5 rebounds in their first 2 games and is second on the team in minutes played. Plumlee is a big, lumbering center who has never been a huge threat to score, and that hasn't changed this year, even against 2 teams with no size whatsoever. He's averaged 6 points and 8.5 rebounds in these first 2 games. Neither Plumlee nor Jefferson are any perimeter threat.
The bench for Duke features 3 freshmen, G Derryck Thornton, G Luke Kennard, and F Chase Jeter. These 3 guys have decent potential, though none appear very ready for the big time as yet. Thornton has played some point guard duty for Duke and has done fairly well. He's 2nd on the team with 3.0 assists per game and he's played 24.5 minutes against the 2 cupcakes. In my opinion, he's the only true point guard on the team, but his lack of shooting/scoring keeps him from starting. Kennard is a shooter who hasn't found his shot yet. He's scored 10 points per game but is only shooting 25% from 3 so far. But he's still dangerous if left open. Chase Jeter may have the most upside of the bench players. He's a 6-10 240lb power forward (ranked by most services in the top 15 recruits last year) who still looks uneasy at this level. If he develops this season, he could be starting over Plumlee by season's end. But that won't happen Tuesday night.
I feel pretty good about this game going in. Duke is going to try to play man to man against UK for most of the night. They have a size advantage over UK but I believe the Cats have a significant quickness advantage. This Duke team can be very dangerous from 3pt range, especially if given much space, so that will need to be a focus of the defense all night. I'm not sure who UK will have defending Grayson Allen, but I think we have at least 3 guys who could stop the drives that have netted him so many points so far. Ingram is a concern for the Cats because of his size and length at the 3. If UK goes with that 3 guard line-up, it will be hard to keep him from getting clean looks, but I don't think UK will have trouble keeping him out of the lane. One possible answer might be Derek Willis. Some may worry about Willis in this game, but I think he's a good match-up for Ingram, who is likely not used to playing against someone his own size and quickness. On the interior, I'm very interested to see how Labissiere plays against a true 7-footer in Plumlee, who is not fleet of foot but has significant size and strength. I'm also interested to see if Lee and Poythress can shut down Jefferson down low, and keep him off the glass. I think they have a good chance to get it done.
I don't know exactly what to expect in this game because there are so many newcomers on the floor for both teams. I think UK is in better position to win this game right now, though. Point guard play will be key in a game like this and I think Duke is weak in that area. As I said above, Grayson Allen has bullied his way around and over opponents in those first 2 games. He won't be able to do that against UK. Officiating will be a big concern for this game as well. With the new "freedom of movement" emphasis and this being the first nationally televised featured game, I expect a bunch of fouls to be called. UK will need hit free throws. If fouls are being called, the bench becomes much more significant. Actually, I think that would play into UK's hands. Duke lacks much quality depth.
Prediction: UK 82 Duke 76
Conference Affiliation: Atlantic Coast Conference
Head Coach: Mike Krzyzewski
This is Coach Krzyzewski's 41st season overall (1020-310 .767) 36th with Duke (947-251 .790)
Game information:
Tuesday, November 17 Kentucky United Center, Chicago, IL 7:30 p.m. EST TV: ESPN
This game is part of the State Farm Champions Classic
Last season's result: National Champs 35-4
Starters lost from last season: 4
Jahlil Okafor 17.3pts, 8.5reb
Quinn Cook 15.3pts, 3.4reb, 2.6ast
Justice Winslow 12.6pts, 6.5reb, 2.1ast
Tyus Jones 11.8pts, 5.6ast, 3.5reb
Schedule
N13 SIENA W, 92-74
N14 BRYANT W, 113-75
Probable Starters (with stats for 2 games)
F #14 Brandon Ingram 6-9 190 Fr 18.0pts, 4.0reb, 1.5ast, 33.3% from 3
F #21 Amile Jefferson 6-9 225 Sr 15.0pts, 11.5reb, no 3pt threat
C #40 Marshall Plumlee 7-0 250 Gr 6.0pts, 8.5reb, 2.5blks, no 3pt threat
G #3 Grayson Allen 6-5 205 So 27.0pts, 4.0reb, 4.0ast, 41.7% from 3
G #13 Matt Jones 6-5 200 Jr 14.5pts, 1.5reb, 2.0ast, 60% from 3
Key bench players
G #12 Derryck Thornton 6-2 175 Fr 4.5pts, 4.0reb, 3.0ast, 16.7% from 3
G #5 Luke Kennard 6-5 180 Fr 10.0pts, 2.5reb, 25% from 3
F #2 Chase Jeter 6-10 240 Fr 5.0pts, 4.5reb, no 3pt threat
Team Stats (through 2 games)
Points per game 102.5
Points allowed 74.5
Scoring margin +28.0
Field goal pct .496
FG% defense .451
3-point FG pct .373
3pt FG pct D .476
3-pt FG made per game 9.5
Free throw pct .738
Rebounds per game 43.5
Opponents rebounds 33.5
Rebounding margin +10.0
Assists per game 13.0
Turnovers per game 8.0
Turnover margin +10.0
Assist/turnover ratio 1.6
Steals per game 11.0
Blocks per game 5.5
Analysis: Duke enters this game ranked #5 in the AP Poll and #4 in the Coaches Poll, and bring a team that has scored over 100 points per game to the United Center in Chicago to face a Kentucky team ranked #2 in the AP Poll and #1 in the Coaches Poll. This is a battle of the 2 premier programs in college basketball today and arguably in all of NCAA men's basketball history. Kentucky leads the overall series 11-9 but Duke has won 7 of the last 8 in the series.
Both the Wildcats and the Blue Devils are breaking in some new starters in this game. Kentucky lost all 5 starters from a year ago, plus 2 others, from a Final Four team. Duke lost 4 of 5 starters from a national title team. Both teams played back to back games Friday and Saturday against mid-majors and now stand at 2-0 on the young season.
For Duke, 4 returnees and one freshman will start. This line-up of Jones, Allen, Ingram, Jefferson, and Plumlee started both of their games to this point. So far, the big star for the Blue Devils has been Grayson Allen. The 6-5 sophomore guard has averaged 27 points per game against Siena and Bryant, shooting 51.6% from the field and 41.7% from 3. He has also lived at the free throw line where he has shot 17-18 for 94.4% so far. Allen has been able to bully his way to the goal in their first 2 games and finished with lay-ups or fouls on the opponent. Allen also leads the team in assists per game with 4 per game. His backcourt mate is Matt Jones, another 6-5 guard who is playing some point and some shooting guard. Jones has been shooting it very well from 3pt range, shooting 6-10 for 60%. One concern for Duke thus far, which hasn't mattered against the 2 cupcakes they've played, is that they don't seem to have a true point guard starting. Allen and Jones are both shooting guards or combo guards from what I've seen of them. In watching them play, Allen, Jones, and Ingram have all initiated the offense at different times.
The guy playing small forward is Brandon Ingram, a player UK fans are likely familiar with from the recruiting circuit this last year. He's a 6-9 small forward who is very perimeter oriented in his game. He's only 190lbs (soaking wet, I'd say), so it's no wonder he prefers to stay out of the paint. In the time I watched, he seems to have the green light to handle the ball, start the offense, and shoot from anywhere on the floor. He has shot 33.3% from 3 (5-15) thus far and has scored 18.0 points per game. But here again, the level of competition needs to be considered. His length is impressive, without question, but his handle seems a bit suspect to me.
The other 2 frontcourt players are guys UK fans are very familiar with, Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee (v. 4.0). Jefferson is finally a senior and he is a critically important player for Duke. He's 6-9 225 and has a little bit of a back to the basket game. Given the fact that Plumlee has almost no back to the basket game, it's easy to see why Jefferson is so important. He's averaging 15 points and 11.5 rebounds in their first 2 games and is second on the team in minutes played. Plumlee is a big, lumbering center who has never been a huge threat to score, and that hasn't changed this year, even against 2 teams with no size whatsoever. He's averaged 6 points and 8.5 rebounds in these first 2 games. Neither Plumlee nor Jefferson are any perimeter threat.
The bench for Duke features 3 freshmen, G Derryck Thornton, G Luke Kennard, and F Chase Jeter. These 3 guys have decent potential, though none appear very ready for the big time as yet. Thornton has played some point guard duty for Duke and has done fairly well. He's 2nd on the team with 3.0 assists per game and he's played 24.5 minutes against the 2 cupcakes. In my opinion, he's the only true point guard on the team, but his lack of shooting/scoring keeps him from starting. Kennard is a shooter who hasn't found his shot yet. He's scored 10 points per game but is only shooting 25% from 3 so far. But he's still dangerous if left open. Chase Jeter may have the most upside of the bench players. He's a 6-10 240lb power forward (ranked by most services in the top 15 recruits last year) who still looks uneasy at this level. If he develops this season, he could be starting over Plumlee by season's end. But that won't happen Tuesday night.
I feel pretty good about this game going in. Duke is going to try to play man to man against UK for most of the night. They have a size advantage over UK but I believe the Cats have a significant quickness advantage. This Duke team can be very dangerous from 3pt range, especially if given much space, so that will need to be a focus of the defense all night. I'm not sure who UK will have defending Grayson Allen, but I think we have at least 3 guys who could stop the drives that have netted him so many points so far. Ingram is a concern for the Cats because of his size and length at the 3. If UK goes with that 3 guard line-up, it will be hard to keep him from getting clean looks, but I don't think UK will have trouble keeping him out of the lane. One possible answer might be Derek Willis. Some may worry about Willis in this game, but I think he's a good match-up for Ingram, who is likely not used to playing against someone his own size and quickness. On the interior, I'm very interested to see how Labissiere plays against a true 7-footer in Plumlee, who is not fleet of foot but has significant size and strength. I'm also interested to see if Lee and Poythress can shut down Jefferson down low, and keep him off the glass. I think they have a good chance to get it done.
I don't know exactly what to expect in this game because there are so many newcomers on the floor for both teams. I think UK is in better position to win this game right now, though. Point guard play will be key in a game like this and I think Duke is weak in that area. As I said above, Grayson Allen has bullied his way around and over opponents in those first 2 games. He won't be able to do that against UK. Officiating will be a big concern for this game as well. With the new "freedom of movement" emphasis and this being the first nationally televised featured game, I expect a bunch of fouls to be called. UK will need hit free throws. If fouls are being called, the bench becomes much more significant. Actually, I think that would play into UK's hands. Duke lacks much quality depth.
Prediction: UK 82 Duke 76
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