Scott Padgett thinks reed returns

[IL Wildcat]

Here's what I'll say... it depends on how this season ends. If he leads us to a title or maybe even a Final Four, I'd say he's likely gone. But if he thinks he has unfinished business, I wouldn't be surprised to see him come back. That's where being the hometown Kentucky kid makes him different than most. I still expect he will leave, though. It's hard to turn down that kind of money and a sure career. The risks are too high. But I think there are some circumstances that would lead him to return.

 

[Fox2monk]

42-0

Reed adds at least 15 wins so we would go 57-0 for sure.

 

[Fox2monk]

Here's what I'll say... it depends on how this season ends. If he leads us to a title or maybe even a Fina Four, I'd say he's likely gone. But if he thinks he has unfinished business, I wouldn't be surprised to see him come back. That's where being the hometown Kentucky kid makes him different than most. I still expect he will leave, though. It's hard to turn down that kind of money and a sure career. The risks are too high. But I think there are some circumstances that would lead him to return.

That’s my thoughts as well but maybe he wants to at least try to Tie his dad in NC’s? Maybe try to beat him…

 

[Wildcats1st]

love the kid, but he is gone.

he would never come close to NBA money with NIL. not even close.

The cal brainwash doesn’t apply here. I’ve been saying it for months. Reed is a different type of player. There’s no comp for him in cbb especially in NIL era. Our fanbase the tradition of UK and the legacy son of a former great not only of our men’s team but also our women’s. There are things in life far more valuable than money. I think the shepards would take reed legendary status over an additional 20 mil on top of what will already be obscene money. I don’t think the monetary difference will be that great BUT I think it speaks to how much they value his experience at UK.

 

[ukfan1622]

He may want to outdo daddies hardware …

And I wouldn’t blame him.

Then he should get with Caitlyn Clark and give us another in the Sheppard lineage in say about 2045.

I'm thinking their kids would be shooters. lol

 

[$Z71$]

Sheppard can have it all if he returns. NPOY. A real shot at a Final Four. Top 5 pick. Hometown hero. Solidified as a commonwealth legend for the rest of his life. Plus, it's not like his skill set is going to diminish. He can have all of the aforementioned, plus probably over $100 million in career earnings.

Yep, and legitimately 10 Million or 100 million in career earnings is the same lifestyle. There is no difference and if you make 10 million you can turn that into 100 on your own over time outside basketball earnings if you so desire. Money isn't the main motivator for everyone though, hard for people who don't have money to understand that.

 

[BigTyrone]

42-0

45-0

 

[Fox2monk]

And we could potentially see Bradshaw and Edwards return as well. If those two came back, in addition to Reed returning, we'd be preseason #1.

G - Sheppard
G - Fland
F - Edwards
F - Quaintance
F - Bradshaw

Depends on who leaves and what kinda jump they make. Bradshaw would need to make a huge jump to start. I for one hope it’s Z that returns to start but I was also like and think Bradshaw should return.

 

[4UK4Life]

But why risk hurting your draft stock next season and risking injury just to come back to college? It makes zero sense

NIL changes the game. He’s getting a minimum 1 million to return and be king of the bluegrass state with his family here and doesn’t have the travel schedule of the NBA which would suck. He’s in a spot where getting injured and he’s still gonna get taken care of for life in Kentucky.

 

[kennyskywalker34]

I have no clue if he stays or goes. But those saying he needs to go he could have a career ending injury is foolishness.
In the last 20 years the only player I can think of who had a injury that basically ended his career was DeShawn Butler at WVU. He was a senior and I believe had a good chance of being drafted in the mid to late first round. Destroyed his knee in the final 4 against Duke.
So that rarely happens. Very slim chance. Not everyone in the world is money hungry. So I think there is a chance he returns.
I didn't follow Butler so he might have had a overseas career or maybe even a handful of NBA games?

 

[BigKari]

I have no clue if he stays or goes. But those saying he needs to go he could have a career ending injury is foolishness.
In the last 20 years the only player I can think of who had a injury that basically ended his career was DeShawn Butler at WVU. He was a senior and I believe had a good chance of being drafted in the mid to late first round. Destroyed his knee in the final 4 against Duke.
So that rarely happens. Very slim chance. Not everyone in the world is money hungry. So I think there is a chance he returns.
I didn't follow Butler so he might have had an overseas career or maybe even a handful of NBA games?

Still played 2 years for the Spurs and then overseas. Made about 800k each of the 2 years he was in the league. He was on the French team that UK played on their summer Bahamas trip in 2014. Can’t remember if he played in the game or if he was even on the trip, but he was on their roster.

I also happen to know that as a rookie he spent 10% of a his pre-tax salary in one night at a strip club. Another night he spent 1% of his pre-tax salary at a McDonalds.

 

[ck-2]

Would Cal start a sophomore Reed?

Doubtful.

 

[JonathanW]

It’s in the Atlantic I don’t have a link. Anyone?

Pretty much what I keep reiterating legendary status over quick money.


“
I’m not saying he’ll stay four years, but I would still be shocked if his career lasted one,” said Padgett. “If there are weaknesses they think he can work on and improve in a year, I could see him staying another year. They’re going to look at this differently than most, for one because the NIL is probably crazy, but also because education is huge to them and he’d be another year closer to a degree, where he could then come back and finish it in the summers. And, to be honest with you, there’s an unknown factor.

“They are such a close, close, close family, and Reed has lived his whole life in London and Lexington, so I don’t know that there’s a real rush to get out of there unless you’re 100 percent ready. Plus, if he comes back, he’s a rock star. He’s Michael Jordan and Muhammad Ali. In that state, he would be that.”

I agree mostly, that it's more like 50/50 (maybe better) that he returns. And I've also been saying this over and over.

And I think there are several factors:
- NIL makes it easier, it won't replace NBA $, but it offsets a decent bit of it, enough to make a teenager think he is rich
- Reed doesn't come from a poor family (not a rich one either); but he wouldn't be removing his family from generational poverty like so many players do (this one applies to Wagner too), so there is less reason to "get there as fast as possible", these 2 are not Dakari Johnson
- education, I bet his parents have instilled in him the importance of education. Not that I think he will stay until he graduates, but I think he will get closer, and after 2 years, depending on HS AP classes he could be within 1 year of a degree
- living out his dream, playing for UK, winning for UK, maybe even a chance at a championship for the team he's dreamed of playing for since a little kid, where both his parents played
- he's still "a kid", and there should not be any rush to become an adult; enjoy "the college experience", you can't get it back once you go pro and have to-adult, and I think for his parents this may be the biggest reason to encourage him to return
- he is skilled, but he is not physically ready (strength or quickness) to go against grown-ass men playing for their livelihood; and so I think it would take 3-5 years before he gets near his peak level of performance, too late to maximize his 2nd contract (& that is the one that is life changing); so I think 1 more year will allow him to get more physically ready so that he has a better chance to be near his peak level of performance when it's time for that life-changing 2nd contract. So financially, in the long run, it may be better to return for 1 more year.

 

[Eccain01]

Just depends on where he’s slotted. If he’s top 10ish he’s probably going to leave. Late first round he’ll probably come back. This years draft is also very weak so it’s unlikely he’d be this high again next year. I’m sure he dreamed of playing here but i guarantee he also dreamed of playing in the NBA.

 

[Bluesbrother]

love the kid, but he is gone.

he would never come close to NBA money with NIL. not even close.

Reed is unique compared to all other UK teammates. My feeling is that the things that he finds important aren't the same as what many think. I think he returns for year two. Hope I'm right.

 

[Soupbean]

It’s in the Atlantic I don’t have a link. Anyone?

Pretty much what I keep reiterating legendary status over quick money.


“
I’m not saying he’ll stay four years, but I would still be shocked if his career lasted one,” said Padgett. “If there are weaknesses they think he can work on and improve in a year, I could see him staying another year. They’re going to look at this differently than most, for one because the NIL is probably crazy, but also because education is huge to them and he’d be another year closer to a degree, where he could then come back and finish it in the summers. And, to be honest with you, there’s an unknown factor.

“They are such a close, close, close family, and Reed has lived his whole life in London and Lexington, so I don’t know that there’s a real rush to get out of there unless you’re 100 percent ready. Plus, if he comes back, he’s a rock star. He’s Michael Jordan and Muhammad Ali. In that state, he would be that.”

I’ve been saying that all along

 

[BigKari]

I agree mostly, that it's more like 50/50 (maybe better) that he returns. And I've also been saying this over and over.

And I think there are several factors:
- NIL makes it easier, it won't replace NBA $, but it offsets a decent bit of it, enough to make a teenager think he is rich
- Reed doesn't come from a poor family (not a rich one either); but he wouldn't be removing his family from generational poverty like so many players do (this one applies to Wagner too), so there is less reason to "get there as fast as possible", these 2 are not Dakari Johnson
- education, I bet his parents have instilled in him the importance of education. Not that I think he will stay until he graduates, but I think he will get closer, and after 2 years, depending on HS AP classes he could be within 1 year of a degree
- living out his dream, playing for UK, winning for UK, maybe even a chance at a championship for the team he's dreamed of playing for since a little kid, where both his parents played
- he's still "a kid", and there should not be any rush to become an adult; enjoy "the college experience", you can't get it back once you go pro and have to-adult, and I think for his parents this may be the biggest reason to encourage him to return
- he is skilled, but he is not physically ready (strength or quickness) to go against grown-ass men playing for their livelihood; and so I think it would take 3-5 years before he gets near his peak level of performance, too late to maximize his 2nd contract (& that is the one that is life changing); so I think 1 more year will allow him to get more physically ready so that he has a better chance to be near his peak level of performance when it's time for that life-changing 2nd contract. So financially, in the long run, it may be better to return for 1 more year.

Another thing is, I doubt One and Done crossed his mind until about 2-3 months ago when the projections started really coming to a consensus that he’s a top 20 talent. He was and is totally fine with not starting. I think he came here with 3-4 years in mind. Highly doubt that happens now, but I really do think there’s a significant chance for a year 2.

I’m telling you, Reed’s game is perfect for college, it’s not nearly as conducive to the NBA. I have no doubt he’ll score efficiently and he’ll be damn near automatic from the spot up three, which is obviously a premium skill in the league. But Reed is undersized, below average athleticism for the league, and he is not much of a shot creator at this time. While he has incredible anticipatory instincts to make plays on defense, he’s got a ton of work left to do to improve on on-ball defense. And I’m saying he needs to improve that at the college level first, there’s no one Reed can defend that’s in the league right now. I just don’t see the rush when he can make a ton of money at UK and I think he’d really benefit from being the go to guy next year.

 

[Fancatstik]

You people are amazing. You hear one guy say something you want to hear and you all think it’s a given. It’s common sense vs gullibility

 

[SkyPrince1]

Cal likes to push his players to the draft. We've heard from a few players they were thinking about coming back and Cal convinced them to leave.

Probably was the right thing to do in every case.
Guarantee he never pushed a kid to the draft that wasn't a first rounder.

 

[michaeluk26]

I just want to be on record saying what I've said throughout this entire season, he'll be back next year. It's just a gut feeling I've had and I haven't wavered in the slightest. If I'm wrong I'll eat crow. My ego can handle being wrong.

 

[crashtestdummy]

You people are amazing. You hear one guy say something you want to hear and you all think it’s a given. It’s common sense vs gullibility

Kinda pathetic, really.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan. (And I'm trying to be polite here) But some here give a whole new meaning to the word fanatic.

 

[Jmeeks54thebest]

I do think there’s a chance he comes back. But I don’t think it’s a very big chance. All those reasons are wonderful reasons to come back. But Cal is his coach and Cal tends to push kids out who have high projections for fear of them getting injured or having a year worse than their previous. It also makes him look good in the eyes of recruits.

Some reasons not to return:
He’s projected top 10 nearly unanimously. That’s money that’s hard to turn down.

The coach he’d be returning for has given the starting position he earned to a less qualified player (based on this season alone).

The allure of college life doesn’t seem to have the same appeal to the current generation of college students as it did for mine.

I hope I’m wrong and I do hope he comes back. It’d be amazing. But I just don’t see it having a high likelihood of happening. But as a famous scholar once inquired:

“You’re saying there’s a chance?”

 

[bbncal02]

And we could potentially see Bradshaw and Edwards return as well. If those two came back, in addition to Reed returning, we'd be preseason #1.

G - Sheppard
G - Fland
F - Edwards
F - Quaintance
F - Bradshaw

The trade off is if we go this route we are going with Cal another year. Not sure how that goes.

 

[fisherscatfan]

And, to be honest with you, there’s an unknown factor.

“They are such a close, close, close family, and Reed has lived his whole life in London and Lexington, so I don’t know that there’s a real rush to get out of there unless you’re 100 percent ready.

This in my opinion would be the determining factor should he stay. He can make good money with NIL, obviously not NBA money but good money and still be a kid. Once you are gone from college a lot of things change. He may not be willing to give up this time with family yet.

 

[AGEE11]

The trade off is if we go this route we are going with Cal another year. Not sure how that goes.

If he brings that team back, keep him here. That is easy preseason #1.

If that team comes back, good chance we are looking at back-to-back deep runs. Maybe would be a sign he's getting his mojo back.

Also note, if he's ready to go and they all leave, a change wouldn't be so bad. But I would a team bringing back Reed, Edwards, and Bradshaw over any other team I can think of with a new coach. For the record, I don't think any of them come back and Cal is still the coach next year. Unless we flame out early again (which I don't think we will)

On the original post: I think he goes, but he'd be the one potential top pick who would stay here. He will make $13 million over the next 4 years in the NBA I think is what I read. Not way he makes more than $5-6 million in NIL. $7 million is a lot of money to walk away from, but again. Reed would be the only UK player I can see doing that.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

The trade off is if we go this route we are going with Cal another year. Not sure how that goes.

I'd take it if he brought back an elite collection of players. Let's say Wagner, Sheppard, Edwards, Bradshaw, Big Z, and Thiero all came back. I'd roll the dice with Calipari one more year. You add one guard transfer to that, plus Fland, Quaintance, and Richmond. That's preseason #1.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

If he brings that team back, keep him here. That is easy preseason #1.

If that team comes back, good chance we are looking at back-to-back deep runs. Maybe would be a sign he's getting his mojo back.

Also note, if he's ready to go and they all leave, a change wouldn't be so bad. But I would a team bringing back Reed, Edwards, and Bradshaw over any other team I can think of with a new coach.

I agree. It wouldn't shock me if Sheppard came back and three or four other freshmen came back as well, especially with NIL to tide them over. Right now, Edwards, Wagner, and Bradshaw are all barely draftable. Another year at UK and they're top 30 picks.

I also think Z could return. In such a scenario, we likely lose Onyenso, Burks, and Hart to the portal, but I'm okay with that if it means returning those aforementioned guys.

It would also show BBN that Cal cares about pursuing a title. The season after that he could potentially add Dybantsa, Thomas, Johnson, Wilson, Acuff, etc., and have one of his best classes ever.

It would be a better way for him to end his UK career than being forced out after another mediocre season.

 

[AGEE11]

I agree. It wouldn't shock me if Sheppard came back and three or four other freshmen came back as well, especially with NIL to tide them over. Right now, Edwards, Wagner, and Bradshaw are all barely draftable. Another year at UK and they're top 30 picks.

I also think Z could return. In such a scenario, we likely lose Onyenso, Burks, and Hart to the portal, but I'm okay with that if it means returning those aforementioned guys.

It would also show BBN that Cal cares about pursuing a title. The season after that he could potentially add Dybantsa, Thomas, Johnson, Wilson, Acuff, etc., and have one of his best classes ever.

It would be a better way for him to end his UK career than being forced out after another mediocre season.

Would not mind seeing the man ride off into the sunset after a three-peat at all

 

[Mdnerd]

Oh boy, another year and the same story. UK fans trying to convince themselves players will bypass the draft and return. Here’s a hint, hasn’t happened and won’t happen.

Enjoy the last few weeks and say goodbye, like we do every year.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Oh boy, another year and the same story. UK fans trying to convince themselves players will bypass the draft and return. Here’s a hint, hasn’t happened and won’t happen.

Enjoy the last few weeks and say goodbye, like we do every year.

It happened in 2014 when the Harrison twins went from projected preseason lottery picks in 2013 to virtually undraftable by the summer of 2014.

Edwards, Wagner, and Bradshaw are in a similar spot, and all three of them stand much more to gain by returning than the twins did.

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

This is my main concern. I could definitely see Calipari not wanting Sheppard back. To me it’s a possibility.

If nothing else has run Calipari out of Lexington, pushing Reed out the door won't run him off either. It'll get him drug off...

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Here's what I'll say... it depends on how this season ends. If he leads us to a title or maybe even a Final Four, I'd say he's likely gone. But if he thinks he has unfinished business, I wouldn't be surprised to see him come back. That's where being the hometown Kentucky kid makes him different than most. I still expect he will leave, though. It's hard to turn down that kind of money and a sure career. The risks are too high. But I think there are some circumstances that would lead him to return.

How are the risks high?

Can you think of a kid who came back and got injured and it cost him his NBA riches?

Are his skills going to diminish to the point where he loses his draft value?

If the answer is "no" to the last two questions, then what are the risks?

 

[Blue Bigfoot]

Some here won't believe it, as they have been conditioned to believe that any lottery pick has to go. Which is rubbish.

 

[JFCats22]

People are dreaming and not living in reality. If Reed stays projected as a lottery pick there is 0.0% chance he returns.

This draft is WEAK, next year is not. He’d be passing up millions, taking a chance of injury or that next year’s team doesn’t work out like he thought, losing one year towards the second NBA contract, etc…

No way he returns if he’s in the top 10-12 picks.

 

[JonathanW]

And even though I think there is a good chance (40-70%) that he returns, I also think it very likely 90+% that he initially puts his name in just so he can get that NBA feedback on what to do to get better for that next step.
And when he does, this board will meltdown! And all of the “see I told you so, he was always leaving”, and “this is Cal fault” crowd will come out of their holes all giddy.

 

[JonathanW]

People are dreaming and not living in reality. If Reed stays projected as a lottery pick there is 0.0% chance he returns.

This draft is WEAK, next year is not. He’d be passing up millions, taking a chance of injury or that next year’s team doesn’t work out like he thought, losing one year towards the second NBA contract, etc…

No way he returns if he’s in the top 10-12 picks.

To say there is 0% chance is just stupid.

 

[KFuqua]

But why risk hurting your draft stock next season and risking injury just to come back to college? It makes zero sense

Because quite honestly, not everything is about his draft stock to him and his family. For most of Cal's recruits, they come here just to get to the NBA as soon as they can. That's not true for Reed. He and his family have ties to Kentucky and he's dreamed all of his life for playing for Kentucky. Why not be a college student and enjoy it. Play for the team of your dreams and try to win a championship! I'll be surprised if he goes to the NBA. I have no insider connections or anything like that; it's just my gut feeling.

 

[Wildcat Sheli]

- he's still "a kid", and there should not be any rush to become an adult; enjoy "the college experience", you can't get it back once you go pro and have to-adult, and I think for his parents this may be the biggest reason to encourage him to return

Reminds me of Jeff Sheppard’s comments on redshirting in 1996-1997 when Pitino asked him.

“…He was the coach and what he said was the end of the story. Today is a little different and there’s nothing wrong with that. It was a great decision for me personally (to redshirt). It worked out wonderfully. I got to spend another year on the UK campus and enjoy being a college student.
I got to be a part of one of the more special runs in Kentucky history in 1998. I am thankful that Coach had an idea (for me to redshirt) and it worked out the way it did...”

 

[ukfan03]

His family will help him make the right decision when the time comes. Until then, let’s get ready for March! It’s time to turn up.

 

[JonathanW]

Reminds me of Jeff Sheppard’s comments on redshirting in 1996-1997 when Pitino asked him.

“…He was the coach and what he said was the end of the story. Today is a little different and there’s nothing wrong with that. It was a great decision for me personally (to redshirt). It worked out wonderfully. I got to spend another year on the UK campus and enjoy being a college student.
I got to be a part of one of the more special runs in Kentucky history in 1998. I am thankful that Coach had an idea (for me to redshirt) and it worked out the way it did...”

And Jeff had already experienced 3 years of college. Maturity-wise there is a big difference in being 22-23 and being 19-20.