Saturday in Columbia, SC just got a lot bigger
- Thread starter catben
- Start date
Probably point spreads of remaining games, per Sagarin predictor as of this morning:
@ SC 2.5 point favorite
vs UT 12.5 point favorite
@ A&M 2 point dog
vs Bama 13.5 point favorite
@ Vandy 1.5 point dog
@ Florida 1 point dog
vs LSU 11 point favorite
So, should go 4-3 based on that. SC and LSU are the surprising ones. Again I say, someone is going to have to go a long way to convince me that home court is worth 3-4 points. Example, we beat Vandy by 19 at home, and are 1.5 point dogs in Nashville. It was my understanding there would be no math......
The 4 road games are all lose-able. We go 2-2 in those, I'm happy......
@ SC 2.5 point favorite
vs UT 12.5 point favorite
@ A&M 2 point dog
vs Bama 13.5 point favorite
@ Vandy 1.5 point dog
@ Florida 1 point dog
vs LSU 11 point favorite
So, should go 4-3 based on that. SC and LSU are the surprising ones. Again I say, someone is going to have to go a long way to convince me that home court is worth 3-4 points. Example, we beat Vandy by 19 at home, and are 1.5 point dogs in Nashville. It was my understanding there would be no math......
The 4 road games are all lose-able. We go 2-2 in those, I'm happy......
Just for measure here's the KP predictions for the rest of the season
Sat Feb 13 43 South Carolina W, 75-74 71 51% Away ×
Thu Feb 18 90 Tennessee W, 83-70 70 88% Home ×
Sat Feb 20 19 Texas A&M L, 73-70 68 38% Away ×
Tue Feb 23 84 Alabama W, 73-62 65 87% Home ×
Sat Feb 27 35 Vanderbilt L, 72-71 68 48% Away ×
Tue Mar 1 29 Florida L, 72-70 69 44% Away ×
Sat Mar 5 58 LSU W, 84-74 72 83% Home ×
Sat Feb 13 43 South Carolina W, 75-74 71 51% Away ×
Thu Feb 18 90 Tennessee W, 83-70 70 88% Home ×
Sat Feb 20 19 Texas A&M L, 73-70 68 38% Away ×
Tue Feb 23 84 Alabama W, 73-62 65 87% Home ×
Sat Feb 27 35 Vanderbilt L, 72-71 68 48% Away ×
Tue Mar 1 29 Florida L, 72-70 69 44% Away ×
Sat Mar 5 58 LSU W, 84-74 72 83% Home ×
Haslametrics.com is the most bullish on UK of all the rating systems. We are the #4 team in the country according to them, and they pick us as an almost 10 point favorite on the road tomorrow. I like that.
http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php
1. UVA
2. Nova
3. MSU
4. UK
5. Iowa
http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php
1. UVA
2. Nova
3. MSU
4. UK
5. Iowa
Haslametrics.com is the most bullish on UK of all the rating systems. We are the #4 team in the country according to them, and they pick us as an almost 10 point favorite on the road tomorrow. I like that.
http://haslametrics.com/ratings.php
1. UVA
2. Nova
3. MSU
4. UK
5. Iowa
Wow. I'd love to know what goes into their rankings lol
From that site
First of all, I have sworn off several of the more popular methods endorsed by hoops stats enthusiasts to rate teams. This includes, most notably, Dean Oliver's "Four Factors of Basketball Success" (effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding percentage, and free throw rate). Together, these variables are frequently utilized to construct a regression equation to predict offensive and defensive efficiency. After experimenting with linear and logistic regression for years, I have chosen to reject that methodology in my predictive analysis based on the opinion that sample sizes for one particular team in one single season are just too small. I believe there just isn't enough data available to properly formulate a reliable equation that way.
Second, I have narrowed my analysis down to the bare necessities.....specifically, how often teams shoot, how close to the basket each shot is, how well teams shoot from different locations on the floor, and how often steals and offensive rebounds affect the shot selection and success. One must also factor in those same traits from a defensive perspective (e.g. how often, how well, and from where a team's opponent shoots). Using this shooting data alongside an estimate of the number of trips upcourt a team and its opponent will make, I can scientifically make a prediction for the result of any contest.
Third, based on play-by-play logs that I have collected and parsed, I only utilize data for a particular game where the outcome of said contest is still in question. Using a formula to determine when a game is essentially "over," I can truncate data that is likely to be contaminated by bench players ("scrubs") getting time on the floor when a lead is out of reach.
lol love where he has UK but hate his methodology
First of all, I have sworn off several of the more popular methods endorsed by hoops stats enthusiasts to rate teams. This includes, most notably, Dean Oliver's "Four Factors of Basketball Success" (effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding percentage, and free throw rate). Together, these variables are frequently utilized to construct a regression equation to predict offensive and defensive efficiency. After experimenting with linear and logistic regression for years, I have chosen to reject that methodology in my predictive analysis based on the opinion that sample sizes for one particular team in one single season are just too small. I believe there just isn't enough data available to properly formulate a reliable equation that way.
Second, I have narrowed my analysis down to the bare necessities.....specifically, how often teams shoot, how close to the basket each shot is, how well teams shoot from different locations on the floor, and how often steals and offensive rebounds affect the shot selection and success. One must also factor in those same traits from a defensive perspective (e.g. how often, how well, and from where a team's opponent shoots). Using this shooting data alongside an estimate of the number of trips upcourt a team and its opponent will make, I can scientifically make a prediction for the result of any contest.
Third, based on play-by-play logs that I have collected and parsed, I only utilize data for a particular game where the outcome of said contest is still in question. Using a formula to determine when a game is essentially "over," I can truncate data that is likely to be contaminated by bench players ("scrubs") getting time on the floor when a lead is out of reach.
lol love where he has UK but hate his methodology
Most of the popular folks have us as a slight favorite. Let's see if we come closer to the 10-point road win he predicts.
I just hope at the end of the game we have five players on the floor to play with. Carolina likes to drive it. Bad combination, considering our propensity to foul on every possession. I guess we will see tomorrow.
I actually feel we do win by double digits.
We are trending up and USC is trending down. UK in recent games have absolutely crushed the predictions.
South Carolina is barely outscoring it's SEC opponents. It suggests they should be about 6-5 instead of 8-3.
They got alot of love because they went so long undefeated but they played no one and in conference they been merely average.
I like the part about truncating data late in games, partly because it eliminates some of the referee reversion to point spread manipulation.
I question how good the model will be as a predictor. Is he saying we are 10 points better, or will win by 10?
He might be saying we should be up 10 late in the game, without acknowledging that a tightening is likely.
"How are we favored by 1?" = thinks it is too much.
"How are we only favored by 1?" = thinks it is too little.
If you had trouble understanding his thought when you read that, you probably have trouble understanding lots of things.
Personally, I wouldn't bet on this game with that spread. Based upon some of our road performances this year, I would reluctantly throw cash at UK +10.
"How are we only favored by 1?" = thinks it is too little.
If you had trouble understanding his thought when you read that, you probably have trouble understanding lots of things.
Personally, I wouldn't bet on this game with that spread. Based upon some of our road performances this year, I would reluctantly throw cash at UK +10.
Post counts start at 0 for posters who are rivals members at other schools' sites. He may have 10,000 posts at his home site. I don't really care for that myself, but it does explain things better. Next time you visit say, Peegs, look at your post count in the upper right (if you're logged in).
Refer to the following website for a discussion of how you take the basic information from Kempom and calculate a predicted margin of victory for college basketball. It's not straightforward, and you have to be a paid subscriber to obtain all the information required. Vegas odds-makers use a similar approach to obtain an unbiased estimate with which to base the opening line. (Please excuse the UT website referral, but this is one of the better explanations I've seen.)
http://www.rockytoptalk.com/2008/2/27/165520/578
Feel free to join in on the game talk. Trash talk is welcomed and encouraged. Good luck tomorrow.
https://southcarolina.forums.rivals.com/threads/22-kentucky-south-carolina-mbb.139398/
https://southcarolina.forums.rivals.com/threads/22-kentucky-south-carolina-mbb.139398/
A physical game right now is not good for us imo.
Our three best players do not go to the line enough.
I understand Ulis, but I'm hoping Derek can be more aggressive and damnit if Murray would stop dipsy-doing and go strong, and take the foul, instead of attempting to avoid the contact, he would average 5 more a game.
Skal is now a jump shooter.
Briscoe and Lee....
Not to mention the foul propensity of Lee, Skal, and Hump on defense...
Be a very good win if we can pull one out.
I really wasnt thinking on that. I was like man, this guy has been lurking for a loooooong time and this is what he finally decides to talk about...?
During the end of the Horn era, yes. But no, historically it has been 60/40 USC or 70/30.
Still an impressive showing by BBN, but the only time that I remember being outnumbered was Horn's last year. That was 60/40 UK and even worse as the blowout progressed.
Either way, it will be 18,000 people who are loud and love basketball. Good to see sellouts at CLA again, and as we speak, our game against the Gators is sold out too. They still don't draw the 15,000+ average that the girls draw. They will next year, though.
By the way Cats. Go to the Vista. Enjoy some food and brews after the game. We have a helluva setup for basketball. Y'all have fun, except for the game.
UK is favored by 3. The line has been moving quickly in the last few hours.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college...-south-carolina.cfm/date/2-13-16/time/1200#BT
How is south Carolina a really good team? Their schedule is terrible. By the end of the year, there is a good chance uk will be the only rpi top 25 team they will have played.
South Carolina has been a hard place for the really good Kentucky teams to win at. 2010 and 2014 both loses vs losing record South Carolina teams. 2010 broke our undefeated season.
So now figure in South Carolina is actually good and Kentucky has road losses to stud teams like Auburn and Tennessee I find it hard to believe Kentucky is favored over South Carolina.
There isn't much to justify Kentucky being favored here based on play recently.
So now figure in South Carolina is actually good and Kentucky has road losses to stud teams like Auburn and Tennessee I find it hard to believe Kentucky is favored over South Carolina.
There isn't much to justify Kentucky being favored here based on play recently.
Based on recent play is why we are favored. We just crushed UGA and UF when we weren't predicted to do so.
Because it's Kentucky, and Kentucky is almost always favored because it's Kentucky. The only time in the past couple of seasons that Kentucky wasn't favored was @ Kansas, and Kansas was favored because it was @ Kansas. It's not all that difficult to grasp.
48 times, roosters crowing loudly, and lots of maroon & grey camo? 
I hope the cocks are ready for a sh1tstorm..... who's with me!!??!??!
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